Iran

“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey

"I hope Iraqis will understand that this is a reflection of things that happen in combat. But it's also a reflection of how closely we are working with the government."

In the wake of a Security Council resolution on Syria that failed to consider the fate of Bashar al-Assad, a belligerent Turkey is fuming mad. In comments made from Istanbul on Saturday, PM Ahmet Davutoglu said the UN's stance "lacks realistic perspective." He also said Turkish troops will remain in Iraq until Mosul is "freed" from ISIS. Translation: Turkish boots will be on Iraqi ground for the foreseeable future.

The announcement of the restoration of Israel-Turkish relations should be seen in the context of Turkey having nowhere else to go.

"Turkey and Qatar face common problems and we are both very concerned about developments in the region and uncertain policies of other countries. We confront common enemies. At this critical time for the Middle East cooperation between us is vital."

The Saudi strategy has yet to bear itself out, but early indications suggest it is generating returns. Non-OPEC supply is expected to suffer its steepest decline in two decades in 2016, at a drop of nearly 0.5 mbpd. Moreover, U.S. shale producers are among the hardest hit. Oil production across the seven most prolific shale plays is expected to plummet a combined 116,000 bpd in January 2016. Still, the strategy is not without sacrifice, and several OPEC members are struggling to find – and, more importantly, endure – that magical balance between non-OPEC pain, market share retention/growth, and self-inflicted damage. Their tipping points are nearly impossible to predict, but there will be more losers than winners in this game of brinksmanship.

Despite spoiradic algo-crazed ramps, crude oil prices continue to slide back towards a $34 handle (in Jan '16 contract) this morning following a reiterated downbeat note from Goldman warning that storage levels are "too full for comfort," that positioning is not as stretched short as some believe, and confirming that this will not end until prices near cash costs to force production cuts, likely around $20/bbl.

Iran's move to test-fire a new ballistic missile in October may not have violated the letter of the nuclear accord (on which the ink is barely dry), but UN experts say it does violate a Security Council resolution, a revelation which puts the Obama administration in an extremely awkward position just as Iran was poised to see economic sanctions lifted. 

"The irony in this year’s batch of outrageous predictions is that some of them are “outrageous” merely because they run counter to overwhelming market consensus. In fact, many would not look particularly outrageous at all in more “normal” times – if there even is such a thing!"

Just last week, controversial Shiite lawmaker Hanan Fatlawi suggested that John McCain was planning to coordinate with the Saudis, Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey on a troop deployment to number 100,000 in Iraq. With the announcement of a new, 34 country military alliance, deputy crown prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman might have just verified Fatlawi's claims.

Since mid-2014 the Pentagon has run all manner of war games – as many as 16 times, under different scenarios – pitting NATO against Russia. All scenarios were favorable to NATO. All simulations yielded the same victor: Russia. And that’s why Erdogan’s erratic behavior actually terrifies quite a few real players from Washington to Brussels.

The libertarian spin on the path to the dark side has many lessons for our country. Shortly after 9/11, Vice President Dick Cheney said on television, “We also have to work, though, sort of the dark side, if you will.” And, stricken with terror and indulging in hate, America did embrace the dark side, accepting torture, indefinite detention, warrantless surveillance, assassination, perpetual illegal wars, and mass civilian casualties. Terror led to hate, hate led to aggression, and aggression has led to suffering, not only for the the direct victims of the wars, but for Westerners at home, as we find ourselves afflicted by blowback in the form of a refugee crisis and terrorist attacks.

As concerning and hateful as so much of Trump’s commentary is, we can at least be sure he speaks from his own twisted mind. This is precisely why he appeals to so many people in this day and age of completely captured politicians. People like the fact that every word out of his mouth hasn’t been carefully placed there by some billionaire patron. On the exact opposite end of that spectrum we find Marco Rubio. A man so incapable of free-thought, he becomes the ideal target for billionaires looking to craft the perfect puppet. Forget Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio is now the establishment GOP’s pick, and they will do everything in their power to get him the nomination.

"The U.S. troops are about to see for themselves what they're up against, and if America is serious about defeating ISIS, it will need to contribute more than guns and bullets; America's new allies will need artillery, armored vehicles and antitank weapons to match ISIS' firepower."