Iran

Frontrunning: November 25

  • Dollar rally pauses, Italian stocks underperform (Reuters)
  • Retailers Vie for Black Friday Dollars (WSJ)
  • Holiday Price War Intensifies as Wal-Mart, Target Pursue Amazon (BBG)
  • U.S. Pushes Iran on New Measures to Fortify Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
  • Brent and WTI see small gains as end of year approaches (Reuters)

Furious Dollar Rally Fizzles On "Black Friday"; US Stocks Set To Open At New All-Time Highs

Having soared to fresh 13 year highs in a quiet overnight session on thin liquidity due to the US Thanksgiving holiday the dollar pared back its weekly advance with modest profit taking after traders wondered if the rally has gotten "too stretched." European shares were fractionally higher, with Asian stocks and US equity futures rising and both the Dow Jones and the S&P set for new all time highs.

Paul Craig Roberts Asks "What If Trump Fails?"

"The people won the election, but the Oligarchy is still there, as powerful as ever...If Trump fails, the only solution is for the American people to become more radical."

Trump, OPEC, & Game Theory

The role of the USA has changed sharply in terms of its likely behaviour under a Trump administration as it will no longer be a cooperative player, but a competitive one, where there are drastically different equilibrium conditions. When the dominant player changes its tack to claw back some the shared gains for itself, the game can rapidly change to a zero-sum or even negative-sum one.

All Aboard The Post-TPP World

Whatever the contours of Trump’s China/Asia foreign policy, Eurasian integration will proceed unabated. TPP – or NATO on trade, the Asian version - is just a scalp in a long and winding road. And on the South China Sea, dialogue is slowly edging out the confrontation fomented throughout the Obama administration.

In Last Minute Twist OPEC Demands Big Production Cuts From Non-OPEC Members; Russia Balks

Under pressure from OPEC to make significant output cuts, Russia balked saying it was ready to freeze oil production at current levels, which it aruged is the equivalent of a cut: "According to our plans, (Russia's) oil output is going up next year. If we keep production at the current level we are making our contribution, for us that essentially means a cut of 200,000-300,000 barrels per day (in 2017)" energy minister Novak said.

Is OPEC Playing The Oil Markets Again?

OPEC has once again succeeded in jaw-boning the oil market, and Goldman Sachs hiked its oil price forecast this week by a substantial amount, but the optimism has not trickled over into the oil futures market, at least not yet as the contango'd curve still does not look very good.

Frontrunning: November 23

  • S&P 500 Futures Signal Rally Ebbing; Bonds Decline in Europe (BBG)
  • Oil prices capped by doubts OPEC-led cut will end glut (Reuters)
  • Fed Minutes to Be Parsed for Insight on Inflation, Jobs (WSJ)
  • Trump keeping 'open mind' on pulling out of climate deal (Reuters)
  • Trump Raises Prospect of Keeping Ties to His Firms (WSJ)

Major Foreign Policy Shift: Turkey Abandoning EU For SCO

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on November 20 that Turkey did not need to join the European Union "at all costs." Instead, it could become part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), or Shanghai Pact.