Iran

If You Think It's Muslims Versus Jews and Christians, You're Being Played ...

With just 72 hours to go until Yellen decides to soak up to $800 billion in liquidity, suddenly we have China and the Emerging Market fracturing, commodities plunging, and junk bonds everywhere desperate to avoid being the next to liquidate.

If the United States were truly serious about terrorism, it would start by gauging the level of threat properly and communicating that appraisal to the American people: We would also have a more honest and open discussion about our own role in generating it; we would now be having a frank discussion about the role of the media; we’d also see more creative efforts to discredit, marginalize, spoof, and embarrass the groups we oppose; and you’d see a more hardnosed approach to the various American “allies” who are part of the problem rather than being part of the solution.

One of Donald Trump's recurring refrains ever since the San Bernardino shooting, ostensibly the one which prompted him to declare he would bar Muslims from entering the country, is that the "US is at war." Whether or not that is the case remains to be seen but what is certain is that Trump is merely proposing to do what Democrat Jimmy Carter did back on April 7, 1980, when he banned Iranians from the US and deported Iranian students during the Iran hostage crisis - a time when some could argue the US was likewise in war with the Iranian regime.

'As goes oil, so goes the US equity market' appears to bethe new mantra. Just as yesterday's pump-and-dump tracked oil, so in the pre-market, WTI Crude plunged back to fresh 7-year lows after IEA warned that the oil glut will worsen, with prices lower for longer as demand remains subdued through at least 2017. This in turn sent US equities tumbling with Dow futures down 200 points (down 330 from Thursday highs).

It was a relatively calm overnight session in which European stocks wobbled modestly, Japan was up, China was down following its weakest fixing since 2011 as the PBOC continues to aggressively devalue since the SDR inclusion (stoking concerns capital outflows are once again surging), EM stocks stocks were weak and the dollar was unchanged ahead of today's retail sales data and next week's Fed meeting, and then suddenly everything snapped.

"What’s it like playing chess with Obama?" asks a top aid of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Putin replies, "It's like playing chess with a pigeon. First it knocks over all the pieces, then it shits on the board, and finally it struts around like it won."

This afternoon we got another completely amorphous claim from The Pentagon regarding the death of a “senior” ISIS commander when Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL (whatever that is) Brett McGurk took to Twiiter to announce the death of an Islamic State FinMin.

"The United States is prepared to assist the Iraqi Army with additional unique capabilities to help them finish the job, including attack helicopters and accompanying advisers."

"By the time we figure out how to stop that, ISIS will have the next thing. They use tricks. Always they are a step ahead of you, no matter how smart you are."

The latest confirmation that the oil cartel formerly known as OPEC is effectively non-existent, came a little over an hour ago when in its latest November monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reported that total monthly crude output for the member nations rose to 31.695 million barrels per day, the highest amount produced in three and a half years.

“The government and parliament need to review the agreement signed with the United States on security because the United States does not seriously care about its fulfillment, We demand that it be annulled." 

• Gloomy mood prevails despite calmer commodities (Reuters)
• A Strong Dollar Hurts China More Than the U.S. (BBG)
• China Sets Yuan at Four-Year Low in ‘Stress Test’ (WSJ)
• Dow Chemical and DuPont Are in Advanced Talks to Merge (WSJ)
• Yahoo scraps plan to spin off Alibaba stake (Reuters)

Send a Million Troops From All Over the World Pouring Into Raqqa