Iran

"Training at this camp began with the knowledge of the Iraqi Defence Ministry and police. Those who make different interpretations of the Turkish military presence in Mosul are involved in deliberate provocation."

"ISIS is an enemy of my country. ISIS is a disgrace. It puts my religion in a bad light. They don't represent Islam and I do not consider them to be Muslims.”

The day of reckoning has arrived for the oil price. After a year of "Oil Price Crash" in October the world managed record production of 97.09 Mbpd. Production momentum built in the period of high price, 2007 to 2014, is proving very difficult to switch off. It must be switched off and it seems to me the most likely scenario is sharply lower oil price in the near term.

Over the weekend, in its latest quarterly presentation, the Bank of International Settlements made what may have been a very premature assessment that China is now contained. Judging by events in the past 24 hours, the reality is anything but.

"The reaction of Erdogan and Turkish authorities can say one thing: they were stunned and shocked that Moscow has such evidence. This significantly affected the position of Turkey's NATO allies."

While countless overzealous obituaries have been written about OPEC’s vanishing influence, OPEC is indeed acknowledging that it cannot influence prices to the degree that it once could. However, the result at least shows that OPEC is going to see its current strategy through to its logical conclusion, to the chagrin of most of its members.

Iraq “may soon ask Russia for direct military intervention in response to the Turkish invasion and the violation of Iraqi sovereignty."

Until pro-growth, low taxation and less regulation policy changes are enacted, we don’t foresee any changes to central bank policy nor the unsustainable market divergences and asset price distortions. Expect more media propaganda on how great the economy is while the reality is another story. Early signs are that retail sales this holiday season are poor. Nobody can predict when reality will set in and equity markets revert back to pre QE levels in 2008/09. The longer this charade continues, the lower equity markets will eventually go, and in the short-term so will commodities. Then the super cycle in commodities will begin anew. Much this will hinge on next fall’s election cycle.

Inequality of wealth is inequality of power. A study just released finds that "America’s 20 wealthiest people — a group that could fit comfortably in one single Gulfstream G650 luxury jet — now own more wealth than the bottom half of the American population combined, a total of 152 million people in 57 million households.” How much political power do the people who would be inside that jet — and their friends — actually have?

The vicious Isis attacks in Paris represent yet another unpardonable offense; and through war, Cameron and Hollande seek to avenge the innocents who were killed and wounded. But as the humiliating outcome of the Suez war reminds us, there are some problems to which war is an unsuitable response. Across much of the greater Middle East today, we confront one such problem. For western governments to reflexively visit further violence on that region represents not a policy but an abdication of policy. It’s past time to think differently.

"In the year ahead, geopolitics likely poses the greatest potential to disrupt markets in terms of event risk. There is also the potential for geopolitical risks to intersect with economic fragility in the event of a downturn, amplifying both."

OPEC HAS AGREED TO OIL OUTPUT POLICY ROLLOVER, SETS TARGET AT 31.5 M B/D AFTER INDONESIA JOINS: DELEGATE. This increases the output limit up from 30 million but is merely reflective of the current real output from the Cartel of 31.5 million barrels. And crude is crashing, Ruble is dumping and gold is jumping.

As Reuters reports, "Israel has quietly tested ways of defeating an advanced air-defense system that Russia has deployed in the Middle East and that could limit Israel's ability to strike in Syria or Iran, military and diplomatic sources said."