If we assume that China’s hard landing can and will get hard-er-er, it’s worth asking which assets and currencies have priced in a further deceleration in the world’s engine of global growth and trade. Barclays has more on what’s expensive and what’s cheap vis-a-vis persistent deterioration in the Chinese growth story.
If America is so 'exceptional' why is it the world's leader in needing to 'change'...
From witch hunts to corporate defaults to abysmal data, Friday marked a rather unceremonious end to the week for China, as a veritable perfect storm of bad news sent the SHCOMP reeling. Unfortunately for China's day trading masses the plunge protection team was, like Guotai Junan International Holdings’ CEO Yim Fung, "missing" in action.
After several months of artificial, centrally-planned calm in Chinese markets, where "malicious sellers" found out the hard way the Politburo means business, overnight the relative quiet in Chinese stocks since August broke with a bang when the Shanghai Composite tumbled as much 6.1% before closing down 5.5%, the biggest drop in three months and the largest weekly loss since the depth of the Chinese rout in mid-August while a gauge of Chinese volatility surged from the lowest level since March.
This is a chess match between ISIS, China and the U.S. using Taiwan as a game piece.
With geologists having confirmed the link between fracking and earthquakes in Oklahoma (and energy executives trying to get those geologists fired), the news this week that The Sooner State leads the world in seismic activity will likely see more uproar from residents.. and more lobbying dollars spent to 'calm' the politicians. As KFOR reports, this year, more than 5,000 earthquakes have been recorded and experts say earthquakes in Oklahoma will likely increase in magnitude over time warning that it's only a matter of time before the state gets a big one that will change life for those of living there.
Following yesterday's dramatic geopolitical shock, U.S. equity index futures rise as Russia has not escalated the confrontation with Turkey as some had feared, while Asian shares fall, reversing earlier gains. European stocks are rallying and the euro is falling on the back of a Reuters report that the ECB is mulling new measures to prop up lending, although it’s not clear at this point what the real impact from these measures would be.
Wondering where the world's economies are in the leverage cycle? Well, wonder no more. SocGen is out with its updated "leverage clock" which shows you where the bank thinks everyone falls in terms of ticking debt time bombs. As you'll see, SocGen's assessment is quite generous...
It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.
The Federal Reserve has been telegraphing to markets that they are going to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month at its December Fed Meeting.
It may be a holiday shortened week in the US with Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales on deck (some of which may be starting as soon as Wednesday) but there is a lot of macro data to digest in the next few days.
As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.
The U.S. is, in fact, Europe’s enemy - not merely Russia’s enemy. Not merely the truth’s enemy. Not merely democracy’s enemy.
The Fed, in its reflexive attempt to boost confidence in the economy, is not only engaging in massive policy error, but is about to unleash a recession which will promptly force it to cut rates again (to negative) and start another episode of QE.