• Marc To Market
    10/03/2015 - 09:57
    The poor jobs report weighed on the dollar, but the greenback recovered as the session progressed.  It is not clear the jobs report was a game changer.  Stay tuned.  


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Central Banks' Secrecy & Silence On Gold Storage Arrangements

Whereas some central banks have become more forthcoming on where they claim their official gold reserves are stored, many of the world’s central banks remain secretive in this regard, with some central bank staff saying that they are not allowed to provide this information, and some central banks just ignoring the question when asked.

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Why The US Running Out Of Cash In 4 Weeks Is Good News

"This earlier deadline raises the probability that the House will vote to raise the debt limit prior to the time Speaker Boehner steps down on October 30. If so, this would reduce the risk of a disruptive debate on the issue, because Speaker Boehner is more likely than his successor, in our view, to allow a "clean" debt limit increase without the debate over extraneous issues that have delayed enactment until shortly before the deadline in the past."

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The Slippery Slope Of Denial

  1. Dollar doesn’t matter, indicates strong economy relative to the world
  2. Dollar matters for oil, but lower oil prices mean stronger consumer
  3. Manufacturing slump doesn’t matter, only temporary
  4. Manufacturing declines are consumer spending, but only a small part
  5. Manufacturing declines are becoming serious, but only from overseas
  6. US consumer demand is strong, except everywhere you look to actually find it.
  7. ...
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Frontrunning: October 2

  • U.S., Allies Demand Russia Stop Attacks on Syria Opposition (BBG)
  • Russian Airstrikes Defend Strategic Assad Regime Stronghold on Syria’s Coast (WSJ)
  • Emerging Stocks Head for Weekly Advance Before U.S. Jobs Data (BBG)
  • Wage Strife Clouds Car-Sales Boom (WSJ)
  • Oregon town reels from classroom carnage (Reuters)
  • Oregon shooter came from California, described as shy and skittish (Reuters)
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Calm Before The Payrolls Storm

With China markets closed for holiday until the middle of next week, and little in terms of global macro data overnight (the only notable central banker comment overnight came from Mario Draghi who confidently proclaimed that "economic growth is returning" which on its own is bad for risk assets), it was all about the USDJPY which has seen the usual no-volume levitation overnight, dragging both the Nikkei higher with it, and US equity futures, which as of this moment were at session highs, up 7 points. The calm may be broken, though, as soon as two hours from now when the September "most important ever until the next" payrolls report is released.

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72-Year-Old "Mad Dog" Wakabayashi Warns "Reversals Will Be Massive In Scope"

"It's obvious the U.S. is headed for deep deflation, hurt by the strong dollar... The Fed raising rates in this environment is not only ridiculous but harmful. U.S. stocks are plunging, not because of the prospect of a Fed rate hike, but to prevent it."

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Deflation Warning: The Next Wave

The signs of deflation are now flashing all over the globe and the possibility of an associated financial crisis is now dangerously high over the next few months. Our preferred model for how things are going to unfold follows the Ka-Poom! Theory, which states that this epic debt bubble will ultimately burst first by deflation (the "Ka!") before then exploding (the "Poom!") in hyperinflation due to additional massive money printing efforts by frightened global central bankers acting in unison. First an inwards collapse, then an outwards explosion.

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USDJPY Tumbles, Drags Futures Lower, After BOJ Said To See "Little Immediate Need" For More QE


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Frontrunning: October 1

  • After Rough Quarter, Investors Buckle Up (WSJ)
  • From heroes to bystanders? Central banks' growth challenge (Reuters)
  • Russian Airstrike in Syria Targeted CIA-Backed Rebels, U.S. Officials Say (WSJ)
  • Kremlin says Syria air strikes target list of groups, not just Islamic State (Reuters)
  • That’s information warfare? Russia accused of killing civilians in Syria (RT)
  • Euro zone factory growth eases in August despite modest price rises (Reuters)
  • How Glencore's Crazy Month Makes Greek Banks Look Tame (BBG)
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Fourth Quarter Begins With Global Stock Rally As Bad Economic News Is Again Good

Good news! Bad news is again great for stocks, and overnight we had just the right amount of bad news from Japan, China and Europe to send stocks surging on the first day of the final quarter.

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Japanese Pension Funds Find New Ways To Lose Money, Will Blow Retirement Funds On Junk Bonds

With Japan's economy already sliding into its 5th recession of the past decade, once pensioners open their retirement statements in a few weeks and find a 15% plunge in their purchasing power, Japan can skip recession and proceed straight to a consumer-driven recession. But wait, there's more: because if pensioners are angry now, wait until they learn that they have lost everything, after buying all those junk bonds that Carl Icahn is now actively selling with both hands and feet, because: JAPAN PENSION FUND TO INVEST IN JUNK BONDS, NIKKEI SAYS. And just like that, with or without Krugman's active economic advice, Japan's fate is sealed because much to Japan's dismay, "junk" bonds are called that for a reason.

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Citi Discovers The Culprit For Poor Jobs Data...

The shark jumping continues as Citi says its analysts "have found serious residual seasonality in payroll reports for the period from August through October"...

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Germany Now Faced With Thousands Of Aging Wind Farms

Germany has long been a pioneer in the field of renewable energy, generating a record 78 percent of its power consumption from renewables in July of this year. In fact, Germany is one of the very few countries in the world that is actually struggling with too much renewable energy. The latest testimony to this fact is the new issue of decommissioning its old wind farms... and that is a growing problem (for The US too).

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