Japan

Tyler Durden's picture

US Futures Levitate To New All Time High As USDJPY Surges Above 105; Gold Slammed





Just when we thought centrally-planned markets could no longer surprise us, here comes last night's superspike in the USDJPY which has moved nearly 100 pips higher in the past few trading days and moments ago crossed 105.000. The reason for the surprise is that while there was no economic news that would justify such a move: certainly not an improving Japanese economy, nor, for that matter, a new and improved collapse, what the move was attributed to was news that Yasuhisa Shiozaki, who has been advocating for the GPIF to reduce allocation to domestic bonds, may be appointed the Health Minister when Abe announces his new cabinet tomorrow: a reshuffle driven by the fact that the failure of Abenomics is starting to anger Japan's voters. In other words, the GPIF continues to be the "forward guidance" gift that keeps on giving, even if the vast majority of its capital reallocation into equities has already long since taken place. As a result of the USDJPY surge, driven by a rumor of a minister appointment, the Nikkei is up+1.2%, which in turned has pushed both Europe and Asia to overnight highs and US equity futures to fresh record highs, with the S&P500 cash now just 40 points away, or about 4-8 trading sessions away from Goldman's revised 2014 year end closing target.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The 'Wages-Fuel-Demand' Fallacy





In recent months talking heads, disappointed with the lack of economic recovery, have turned their attention to wages. If only wages could grow, they say, there would be more demand for goods and services: without wage growth, economies will continue to stagnate. Unfortunately for these wishful-thinkers the disciplines of the markets cannot be bypassed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Key Events In The Coming Week





The US may be closed on Monday, but after a summer lull that has seen trading volumes plunge to CYNKian lows, activity is set to come back with a bang (if only for the sake of banks' flow desk revenue) with both a key ECB decision due later this week, as well as the August Nonfarm Payrolls print set for Friday. Among the other events, in the US we have the ISM manufacturing on Tuesday, with markets expecting a broadly unchanged reading of 57.0 for August although prices paid are expecting to decline modestly. Then it is ADP on Thursday (a day later than usual) ahead of Payrolls Friday. The Payrolls print is again one of those "most important ever" number since it comes ahead of the the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and on the heels of the moderation of several key data series (retail sales, personal consumption, inflation). Consensus expects a +225K number and this time it is unclear if a big miss will be great news for stocks or finally bad, as 5 years into ZIRP the US economy should be roaring on all cylinders and not sputtering every other month invoking "hopes" of even more central bank intervention.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Keynesian Central Banking Is An Economic Scourge: More Evidence From Japan





If Japan’s results and programs hold any true difference, it is only that they are further down the same road than the rest of us. As Japanification continues in the US and Europe, we are gaining good observations about what lays ahead until the political will to use that same textbook time and time again is exhausted, or, more likely, removed.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Busy Week Ahead, ECB Meeting Stands Out





Dispassionate look at the week ahead, without the hysterics of the sky is falling or the mother of all crises is around the corner.  

 
GoldCore's picture

Helicopter Janet, Mario and Mark Cometh - "Central Banks Should Give Money Directly To The People"





Were this extreme policy to be implemented it would be a further and deliberate debasement of fiat currencies. Alan Greenspan’s warning of “fiat money in extremis” becomes more real by the day. Were this silly proposal ever to become policy, it would significantly increase the risk of inflation and stagflation. In a worst case scenario, it will lead to currency collapse and hyperinflation.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Taupe: It’s Not Just For The Oval Office Anymore





Words matter, the way they are said can matter even more, yet what is just as important is the posture, and yes – that can include even your choice of attire. Agree or not with the policies, but the decision for that suit in our opinion was anything but a faux pas, it was intentional... It was sending a visual cue to all that we are not fiercely red, white, and blue. We are taupe.

 
EconMatters's picture

Were European Bonds Mispriced in 2012 or are they Now?





This seems to be the biggest question in financial markets for me right now because the math just doesn`t add up any way you slice it.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Krugman And The Keynesian Chorus Are Lying: Japan's "Lost Decade" Is A Myth





One of the great economic myths of our time is Japan’s “lost decades.” As Japan doubles-down on inflationary stimulus, it’s worth reviewing the facts. The truth is that the Japanese and US economies have performed in lock-step since 2000, and their performances have matched each other going as far back as 1980. Either Japan’s not in crisis, or the US has been in crisis for a good thirty-five years. You can’t have it both ways... So, Who Benefits from the “Lost Decades” Myth?

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Marc Faber Slams US Intervention In Middle East, Warns "Whole Region Will Blow Up"





"We find ourselves with the same anti-free market interventionist types who set up the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the US government running foreign policy in America and then go and intervene in the affairs of Libya, Syria, Egypt, Iraq or Afghanistan. And as can be expected, they mess up just about everything. I think the whole region will blow up and financial markets are not paying sufficient attention to this."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

S&P Futures Surge Over 2000, At Record High, On Collapsing Japanese, European Economic Data, Ukraine Escalations





Following Wednesday's laughable tape painting close where an algo, supposedly that of Citadel under the usual instructions of the NY Fed, ramped futures just over 2,000 to preserve faith in central planning, yesterday everyone was expecting a comparable rigged move... and got it, only this time milliseconds after the close, when futures moved from solidly in the red, to a fresh record high in seconds on no news - although some speculate that Obama not announcing Syrian air strikes yesterday was somehow the bullish catalyst - and purely on another bout of algo buying whose only purpose was to preserve the overnight momentum. Sure enough, this morning we find that even as bond yields around the world continue to probe 2014 lows, and with the Ruble sinking to fresh record lows as the Ukraine situation has deteriorated to unprecedented lows, so US equity futures have once, driven by the now generic USDJPY spike just after the European open, again soared overnight, well above 2000 and are now at all time highs, driven likely by the ongoing deflationary collapse in Europe where August inflation printed 0.3%, the lowest since 2009 while the unemployment remained close to record high, while the Japanese economic abemination is now fully featured for every Keynesian professor to see, with the latest Japanese data basically continuing the pattern of sheer horror as we reported yesterday.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Abegeddon: Household Spending Re-Collapses As Japanese Unemployment Jumps To 9-Month High





Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse... In a veritable deluge of data from Japan tonight, there is - simply put - no silver lining. First, Japan's jobless rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.8% - its highest since Nov 2013 (despite the highest job-to-applicant ratio in 22 years). Then, household spending re-collapsed 5.9% for the 4th month in a row (showingh no sign of post-tax-hike-recovery). Industrial Production was up next and dramatically missed expectations with a mere 0.2% rebound after last month's plunge (-0.9% YoY - worst in 13 months), quickly followed by a 0.5% drop in Japanes retail trade MoM (missing hope for a 0.3% gain). That's good news, right? Means moar QQE, right? Wrong! Japanese CPI came hot at 3.4% YoY with energy costs and electronic goods 'hyperinflating' at 8.8% and 9.1% respectively. As Goldman's chief Japan economist warns, "the BOJ doesn’t have another bazooka," adding that "The window for reform may already have been half closed." We're gonna need another arrow, Abe!

 
EconMatters's picture

European Bond Market: Bubble of all Bubbles!





Investors in European Bonds are running over each other all in an effort to front run what the Big Banks have been begging the ECB to begin a bond buying program.  It is hilarious as European yields are already ridiculously low right now, how much lower do they think these yields can go?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely!





David Rosenberg, in one of his recent missives, wrote: "...based on the current trend in the LEI and the level of the diffusion index, history suggests that the next recession is at least four years away." While anything is certainly possible, it is highly unlikely that the current economic environment is supportive of another four years of a "struggle along" economy. Given the artificial supports during recent years, the extreme extension in assets prices, record levels of margin debt and the chase for yield in "junk credits," it is highly possible that the next recessionary decline could be much larger than the historical average.

 
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