Japan

Below is a "help wanted" ad for a "trader" by the infamous 3Red "spoofing" outfit.  We put trader in quotation marks because... well, just read the ad and you will see.

Well that didn't last long. After diappointing data from Japan (very weak Reuters Tankan), and China overnight confirming the weekend's dire trade data (and crushing the soft survey-based idiocy of the PMIs), global equity markets ramped abruptly because "bad news is good news" still in China - meaning moar stimulus is due. However, Draghi's lack of exuberance this morning, and the reality of Macy's outlook reflection on the US consumer have dragged all the overnight gains back into the red...

• GOP debate winners and losers (Hill)
• European Stocks Rise as Dollar Weakens; Metals Decline on China (BBG)
• Global shares shrug off mixed China data, copper teeters near six-year low (Reuters)
• Fed's Evans: Looking forward to time when Fed can raise rates (Reuters)
• Alibaba’s Global Ambitions Face Counterfeit Challenge (WSJ)
• China Rebalancing Takes Hold as Output Slows, Retail Jumps (BBG)

Empires, like adolescents, think they’ll live forever. In geopolitics, as in biology, expiration dates are never visible. When death comes, it’s always a shock. "At the beginning of the great unraveling, in 2015, I was still a young man. Like everyone else, I didn’t see this coming. Today, in 2050, fewer and fewer people can recall what it was like to live among those leviathans... Thirty-five years and endless catastrophes later on a poorer, bleaker, less hospitable planet, it’s clear that we just weren’t paying sufficient attention. Had we been listening, we would have heard the termites. There, in the basement of our common home, they were eating the very foundations out from under us. Suddenly, before we knew quite what was happening, all that was solid had melted into air."

There is little evidence currently that the rally over the last couple of months has done much to reverse the more "bearish" market signals that currently exist. Furthermore, as noted by Jochen Schmidt, the current market action may be more indicative of market topping process. Not unlike previous market topping action, the markets could indeed even register "new highs," as witnessed in both 2000 and 2007 before the major market correction begins. This is typically how "bull markets" end by providing false signals and sucking in the last of those willing to "buy the top." The devastation comes soon after.

While some have called The Trans-Pacific Partnership, "the most brazen corporate power grab in American history," President Obama tells Americans - in an Op-Ed released today - that "it’s the right thing to do for our economy, for working Americans and for our middle class" Despite indepedent analysis that appears to confirm  the creeping corporate coup d’état along with the final evisceration of national sovereignty, President Obama explains - in simple words - ObamaTrade is "a trade deal that helps working families get ahead," due, inhis opinion,  to the "toughest global labor laws" which will allow American workers to compete on a so-called "level playing field."

"Using a dataset on developed market business cycles, we calculate that the unconditional odds that a six-year-old expansion will avoid recession for another four years—and mature into a 10-year-old expansion—are about 60%."

China is playing the long game and they could be low balling their total gold holdings – official central bank reserves and non official, governmental holdings – in order to maintain confidence in their substantial US dollar holdings and to aid their bid to join the IMF.

• Global Stocks Slip Lower (WSJ)
• Dollar sits pretty, bond yields rise as Fed bets firm (Reuters)
• Takeover Loans Have Few Takers on Wall Street (WSJ)
• Chinese Buyers Seek Dollar Assets as Promise of Yuan Gains Fades (BBG)
• Banking Giants Learn Cost of Preventing Another Lehman Moment (BBG)
• Eurozone Finance Ministers Won’t Release $2.15 billion Loan to Greece (WSJ)

Once again, the two major macroeconomic announcements over the weekend came from China, where we first saw an unexpected, if still to be confirmed, increase in FX reserves, and then Chinese trade data once again disappointed tumbling by 6.9% while imports plunged 18.8%. So how did the market react? The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a fourth day and reached its highest since August 20because more bad data means more easing from the PBOC, and just to give what few investors are left the green light to come back into the pool, overnight Chinese brokers soared after Chinese IPOs returned after a 5 month hiatus. Elsewhere, Stocks and currencies in emerging markets slump on prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs before year-end and after data underscored slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy. Euro strengthens.

Why - after commodities - China is set to change the landscape on energy in the coming years

China's exports fell for the fourth consecutive month in October as evidence of collapsing global demand and trade continues to pile up. “A lot of Westerners think this helped us out a lot. But the 2% depreciation actually hurt us. It was in every newspaper and customers called us within hours pushing for 6% discount, so we had to give them 4%."