Japan

In late 2014 something happened: for whatever reason the most unregulated aspect of China's financial system, its shadow banks, not only stopped lending money but actually went into reverse, thus putting a lid on China's Total Social Financing expansion, which had been the world's "under the radar" growth dynamo for so many years. At that moment not only did China's ghost cities officially die, but it meant an imminent collapse for China's steel industry. That collapse has arrived.

Fuku-Youku-Nuku

Haruhiko Kuroda owns 52% of all Japanese ETFs. And now he wants more. Facing a lack of willing JGB sellers, the BoJ now faces the possibility that ramping up its easing efforts will entail expanding the bank's already elephantine equity portfolio. "At a fundamental level, I don’t support the idea of central banks buying ETFs or equities. Unlike bonds, equities never redeem. That means they will have to be sold at some point, which creates market risk."

A bursting of property bubbles in London and New York would be expected to have an impact on national economies and indeed on national property markets. Sentiment would be badly impacted. Caution should be the order of the day.

While China had previously hinted that it's one-child policy is being phased out, most notably in 2013 when sources close to the National Population and Family Planning Commission said China may relax its one-child policy at end-2013 or early-2014 (read end) by allowing families to have two children, moments ago, during the Fifth Chinese Plenum, this 37 year old policy was formally scrapped and China will henceforth allow two kids for all couples in what is a clear bid to boost growth.

Gold’s biggest enemy is a brilliant Nobel Prize winning economist, university professor and columnist for the New York Times. Sadly, he is also a con man. 

The surge in the USDollar today after The FOMC's 'hawkish' statement has prompted strength in the Offshore Yuan, narrowing once again the spread to Onshore Yuan. Another CNY10 billion cash injection hasn't done much for Chinese stocks or liquidity markets however. After better than expected Japanese industrial production however USDJPY plunged (i.e. no imminent BoJ easing) and that dragged Nikkei 225 over 200 points lower (erasing all the FOMC gains).

Europe has unleashed yet another monetary panic, and nowhere is it more visible than in what happened today across the short end of Europe's government curve.  As the table below shows, more than half of European sovereign issuers just saw the yield on their 2 Year Notes trade not only below zero, but hit never before seen negative yields!

We would say today's main event is the culmination of the Fed's two-day meeting and the announcement slated for 2 pm this afternoon, however with the 90 economists polled by Bloomberg all expecting no rate hike, today's Fed decision also happens to be the least anticipated in years (which may be just the time for the Fed to prove it is not driven by market considerations and shock everybody, alas that will not happen). And considering how bad the economic data has gone in recent months, not to mention the recent easing, hints of easing, and outright return to currency war by other banks, the Fed is once again trapped and may not be able to hike in December or perhaps ever, now that the USD is again surging not due to its actions but due to what other central banks are doing.

Following Marc Faber's reality check on China recently, Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass took a swing tonight noting that "China's 7% GDP growth is a farce," and adding that, just as we detailed previously, China's credit cycle has begun and non-performing loans will rise rapidly leading to an emerging Asia banking crisis ahead. Japanese markets continue to entertain with "someone" insta-ramping NKY Futs 100 points at the open only to give it all back as USDJPY slides back towards 120.00 (and 10Y JGB yields drop below 30bps for the first time in 6 months).

News That Matters

The weakness seen in world economic activity is partly the result of the lack of a real purge of the financial system in 2008. It has become unimaginable to let entire parts of the system collapse, and the titling of some financial institutions as “systemic” is part of this logic. Policymakers attempting to keep unhealthy economic and financial institutions alive are making a mistake. The very essence of capitalism lies in the process of creative destruction. What we see here is not a way out of the crisis. Instead, we are on the edge of a new financial disaster.

• Hilsenrath - The Fed Strives for a Clear Signal on Interest Rates (WSJ)
• Tentative Budget Deal Reached, Raising Debt Limit (WSJ)
• China Calls U.S. Challenge Over Island Threat to Regional Peace (BBG)
• UK economy slows more than expected in third quarter (Reuters)
• In China’s Alleyways, Underground Banks Move Money (WSJ)
• Inside the Secretive Circle That Rules a $14 Trillion Market (BBG)
• A Frustrated Koch Brother Decides It’s Time to ‘Spout Off’ (WSJ)

Two biggest move overnight came from everyone's favorite carry pair, the USDJPY, which may have finally read what we said yesterday, namely that with the Fed and ECB both doing its job, there is little need for the Bank of Japan to repeat its Halloween massacre for the second year in a row, and as a result will keep its QQE program unchanged. It promptly tumbled from its 121 tractor level, to just above 120.25, where BOJ bids were said to be found. With the FOMC October meeting starting today, the other overnight catalyst was not surprisingly the latest Hilsenrath scribe in which he removed any uncertainty about a Wednesday hike, "leaving mid-December as the central bank’s last chance to raise rates this year."