Japan

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This Is What Janet Yellen Thinks Is The "Worst-Case Scenario" For The U.S.





"Japan’s deflation didn’t begin until the mid-1990s, a half-decade after the collapse of Japanese real estate and equity prices. Furthermore, during the early years of deflation, Japanese long-run inflation expectations remained well anchored, averaging about 1½ percent as measured by consensus forecasts. So, unfortunately, a Japan-style deflation remains a relevant worst-case scenario for us going forward."

 
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Dow Dumps 250Pts, Nikkei Plunges 500Pts After China Credit Concerns, Kuroda Comment





It appears the world is ganging up on The Fed as following China's recent clear and present threat should the USD strengthen, BoJ's Kuroda warned that further QQE might threaten the bank's finances - implicitly demanding moar from Yellen because he knows he's out of bullets. Add to that the surge in China credit which merely extends the life of already zombified firms, thus spreading more deflationary stress to the world and stocks from China (SHCOMP -3%), Japan (NKY -500) to US (Dow -280 points from Bullard Bounce highs) are tumbling.

 
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"Markets Crash When They're Oversold"





When markets begin a "bear" cycle, they can remain in an oversold condition for extended periods. There is an important 'truism' to remember - "Markets crash when they’re oversold."

 
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The "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Crushed It In 2015





"Your fund made 5.6% net last month, to finish the year up 20.45% net. Gains came from the short book.... Your fund remains long bonds, short equities."

 
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"It's All The Fed's Fault" Santelli Rages, They "Will Certainly Turn Us Into Japan"





Santelli rages "the notion that a small group of people should control the price of money should be under review," adding that "if stocks are rallying because The Fed is retreating, we certainly will turn into Japan."

 
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Global Markets Slide, US Futures Wipe Out Overnight Gains In Volatile Session





European shares tumbled, wiping out gains from a two-day rally, Asian stocks slid and the cost of insuring corporate debt rose as investor concern over global growth prospects resurfaced. U.S. equity-index futures pared gains of as much as 0.9 percent. Government bonds rose, with yields falling to records in Japan and China amid anxiety over the world economy. U.S. crude prices stabilized after dropping below $30 a barrel on Tuesday to touch the lowest since 2003 as Iran moved closer to boosting exports.

 
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Albert Edwards Hits Peak Pessimism: "S&P Will Fall 75%", Global Recession Looms





"To bottom on a Shiller PE of 7x would see the S&P falling to around 550. I will repeat that: If I am right, the S&P would fall to 550, a 75% decline from the recent 2100 peak."

 
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The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall St's Oil-Price Monopoly





Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.

 
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Guest Post: 2016 - Year Of The 'Epocalypse'





As the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out below, it is clear that the 'Epocalypse' - encompassing the roots "economic, epoch, collapse" and "apocalypse" - is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun. What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt.

 
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China Is The New Japan After All: Here's How To Trade It





China = Japan: China, like Japan in the early-1990s, has entered a secular period of significantly slower economic growth, compounded greatly by debt deflation; like Japan in the 1990s, Chinese asset prices, currency, banks (Chart 5) and capital flows will periodically cause severe disruptions to global financial markets, even if China does not itself cause a global recession.

 
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The International War On Cash





When we first wrote on the subject, there was considerable criticism as to the possibility that such a program would ever be attempted, let alone succeed. And, granted, it was so Orwellian that it was understandably seen as a crackpot idea. But since that time, the program has been developing extremely rapidly. In the last six months alone, it has become so visible that it has even garnered a name - "the War on Cash." Once complete, state wealth control will exist.

 
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You Know Negative Interest Rates Are Bad When...





...the Swiss canton of Zug is asking its citizens to delay paying their taxes for as long as possible, because the cantonal government doesn’t want to take in a pile of cash, only to end up paying the bank interest on all the tax revenue.

 
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Frontrunning: January 12





  • Oil slips toward $30, traders bet on more falls (Reuters)
  • Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns (WSJ)
  • RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears (Telegraph)
  • World stocks drop but Europe shrugs off oil slide, China money market surge (Reuters)
  • Canadian Stocks Fall in Longest Slump Since 2002 as Oil Slides (BBG)
  • "Murderous" Yuan Rate Jolts Hong Kong as Top Currency Hub (BBG)
 
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