Japan

"The World's Central Banks Are Making A Big Mistake"

Debt is future consumption brought forward. Once debt is incurred, consumption that might have happened in the future won’t happen. And it should come as no surprise that at a certain debt level, growth and income begin to diminish. That is exactly what we are seeing in the real world.

The Helicopter Has Already Been Tested - And It Failed Spectacularly

Most of what passes for modern monetary policy is nothing more than one assumption piled upon another (and then another, and so on). Taken for granted for so long, rarely are these unproven precepts ever challenged to justify themselves to the minimal standard of internal consistency, let alone prove discrete validity by parts. The latest is “helicopter money”, another sham in a long line of them proffered by at least one central bank today because it knows, as the others, nothing they have done has worked.

US Futures Rise To Session Highs, Set For Another Record Open; Global Stocks Jump

After yesterday's positive close in the Dow Jones, which hasn't had a losing day since July 7 and which took the series of consecutive green closes to 8 in a row - the longest stretch since 2013 - the index will look to lock in its 9th green day in a row with futures currently trading well in the green. It's not just the US - equities edged higher in Asia and Europe as positive earnings results from some of the world’s biggest companies countered concern the global economy is losing steam. The dollar strengthened while gold retreated.

'Pokemon Go' Bubble Bursts: Nintendo Tumbles As Indonesia Issues "National Security Threat"

Indonesian officials have warned that 'Pokemon Go' is a "national security threat," and military headquarters have banned personnel from playing the game while on duty, according to Jakarta Post. It appears the 'Pokemon Go' bubble is bursting, after surging 120% in 8 days, Nintendo is down over 12% today (as the bubble passes over to McDonalds Japan, which is up 12%, after reports of sponsoring 'Pokemon Go' in Japan).

The Financial System Is Breaking Down At An Unimaginable Pace

Now it’s $13 trillion... the total sum of negative-yielding debt in the world has increased in the last sixteen days alone by an amount that’s larger than the entire GDP of Russia. And just like the build-up to the 2008 subprime crisis, investors are snapping up today’s subprime bonds with frightening enthusiasm. So this trend will continue to grow for now, until, just like in 2008, the bubble bursts in cataclysmic fashion.

Which Countries Have The Most Immigrants?

Immigration is now at the center of American and British politics. Trump and Farage see immigration as an existential threat. But do the United Kingdom and the United States have especially large foreign-born populations? Is the number of foreign-born residents in those countries rising at rates faster than in other countries? And how is the composition of the foreign-born population changing?

BofA Finds Something Odd: With The S&P At Record Highs, Traders Have Never Been More Nervous

A strange paradox emerges when flipping though the latest BofA Fund Managers' Survey: with the S&P trading at all time highs, investor buying of protection against sharp decline in stock market at record high, something which would not be happening if the market was "normal" and if traders expected a continuation of the recent upward trend in stocks.

This 'Market' Discounts Nothing Except Monetary Cocaine

In short, the market is not trading on a rebound in GDP, revenue growth or a breakout of already elevated profit margins. It’s just high on one more dose of monetary cocaine that in short order will prove to have been not even that.

US Futures Dip, European Stocks Slide After EU Court Slams Italian Bank Bailout Plans

After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. 

Did "China" Just Buy The Most Important Company In The World?

The Chinese government has made a domestic semiconductor industry a major strategic goal.  Even going so far as to earmark $10B for intellectual property development. The fastest path is acquisition, and ARMH embodies the future.  For China that presents two problems: price (ARMH was $19B last week) and politics (China buying the crown jewels of the internet touches some nerves in the Western world). Today Softbank announced an offer to buy ARM Holdings.

Largest US Pension Fund Suffers Worst Annual Return Since Financial Crisis Due To Heavy Stock Losses

While we have often documented the dramatic underperformance by the hedge fund industry over the past decade, today we learn that "vanilla" asset managers were also hurt over the past year in which the S&P went nowhere. Case in point: Calpers, the largest U.S. public pension fund which as the WSJ reports posted its lowest annual gain since the last financial crisis due to heavy losses in stocks.

Why Oil Prices Might Never Recover

Two years into the global oil-price collapse, it seems unlikely that prices will return to sustained levels above $70 per barrel any time soon or perhaps, ever. That is because the global economy is exhausted. The current oil-price rally is over and prices are heading toward $40 per barrel. Oil has been re-valued to affordable levels based on the real value of money. The market now accepts the erroneous producer claims of profitability below the cost of production and has adjusted expectations accordingly. Be careful of what you ask for.