There has been so much attention on Greece in recent weeks, but the truth is that Greece represents only a very tiny fraction of an unprecedented global debt bomb which threatens to explode at any moment. The only “solution” under our current system is to kick the can down the road for as long as we can until this colossal debt pyramid finally collapses in upon itself.
The last time these criteria were met... stocks plunged over 90% over the next 24 months.
China’s central bank is officially in the business of financing leveraged stock buying and as Bloomberg reports, the country's state-run margin lender now has the capacity to pump the equivalent of five Greek bailouts into leveraged stock trades.
- Back Greek talks or face chaos, Merkel tells German lawmakers (Reuters)
- Fear of the Unknown Binds a Greek Deal With Few Believers (WSJ)
- Grexit Still on the Table Even With EU’s Latest Band-Aid (BBG)
- Donald Tusk warns of extremist political contagion (FT)
- Germany, Not Greece, Should Exit the Euro (BBG)
- Sabine Files Bankruptcy in New York as Oil Prices Fall (BBG)
- Markets Bow to Central Bankers as Bonds Rise, Pound Strengthens (BBG)
After weeks of overnight turbulence following every twist and turn in the Greek drama, this morning has seen a scarcity of mostly gap up (or NYSE-breakding "down") moves, and S&P500 futures are unchanged as of this moment however the Nasdaq is looking set for another record high at the open after last night's better than expected GOOG results which sent the stop higher by 11% of over $40 billion in market cap. We expect this not to last very long as the traditional no volume, USDJPY-levitation driven buying of ES will surely resume once US algos wake up and launch the self-trading spoof programs. More importantly: a red close on Friday is not exactly permitted by the central planners.
Whether China is busy championing trade deals outside of the US dollar, buying up some of the world’s biggest companies, taking over foreign housing markets, or building massive networks of nuclear or wind power grids, it is clear that the country is a world power to be reckoned with. To be considered a true force, China also needs to be able to back up its economic and political might with a top notch military. Today’s infographic compares the armed forces of China with the United States.
After a brief "don't fight the PBOC" three days of releveraging, China margin debt declined once again to 4-month lows. An opening pop - as is now ubiquitous has faded in FTSE China A50 futures but CSI-300 futures (which expire today and are this subject to some 'odd' behavior) are holding modest gains, despite a quarter of Chinese stocks remain halted. For those tempted back in to the deep end of global equity risk, we offer what must go down as the Baghdad Bob quote of the year, from the Chairman of HKEX, "China's stock market is the safest in the world."
Hyperinflation in the U.S. is coming sometime in the next 20 years or so, and this isn't a cry from a Chicken Little, but a conclusion that the analysis strongly suggests. It is possible hyperinflation could happen during the next few years, but that seems unlikely since it would require a series of major crises and political blunders – events unprecedented in the history of the United States. If this led to a corruption of Constitutional rights in the midst of an exaltation of the Executive Branch that resulted in loss of the rule of law, hyperinflation might result. It is much more probable that hyperinflation will be preceded by a long slow decline that will include a protracted period of high inflation, and that the crash of the dollar and hyperinflation will be the final tumble off a looming, steep cliff.
THIS IS THE REAL CRISIS THAT GREECE WILL TRIGGER SHORTLY .
"The AIIB may come to play an important role in keeping America honest. It is difficult to say at this point whether the AIIB will have a negative or a positive impact on the global economy. At the very least, however, the emergence of an international institution with a viewpoint different from that of western creditors will help enhance the quality of debate over emerging economies’ debt problems."
Japan's Economic Disaster: Real Wages Lowest Since 1990, Record Numbers Describe "Hard" Living ConditionsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/15/2015 20:00 -0400
With so much attention rightly focused on China at the moment, people aren’t paying enough attention to the budding economic calamity unfolding in Japan. While “Abenomics” has succeeded in boosting the stock market and food prices, it has utterly failed to raise wages. In fact, wages adjusted for inflation have plunged to the lowest since 1990. As such, a record number of households now describe their living conditions as “somewhat hard” or “very hard.”
The stock market is just too important to leave to the vagaries of an actual market now. Too much depends on good-looking numbers now. It must be guided and controlled, or else the stilts on which our global financial system balances become shakier and more visible. The market must be rendered increasingly meaningless simply because it's too meaningful to our current economic system.
Just when the Chinese plunge protection team (and "arrest shortie" task force) seemed to be finally getting "malicious selling" under control, first we saw a crack yesterday when the composite broke the surge of the past three days as a result of yet another spike in margin debt funded purchases, but it was last night's reminder that "good news is bad news" that really confused the stock trading farmers and grandmas, which goalseeked Chinese economic "data" beat across the board, with Q2 GDP coming solidly above expectations at 7.0%, and retail sales and industrial production both beating, but in the process raising doubts that the PBOC will continue supporting stocks.
In his Pulitzer-Prize-winning book, Lords of Finance, the economist Liaquat Ahamad tells the story of how four central bankers, driven by staunch adherence to the gold standard, “broke the world” and triggered the Great Depression. Today’s central bankers largely share a new conventional wisdom – about the benefits of loose monetary policy. Are monetary policymakers poised to break the world again?