Japan

Is Trump's Agenda Being Eclipsed?

"War is the health of the state, but the death of empires... The German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman empires all fell in World War I. World War II ended the Japanese and Italian empires — with the British and French following soon after. The Soviet Empire collapsed in 1989. Afghanistan delivered the coup de grace... Is it now the turn of the Americans?"

The Truman Show Markets

"Fake news, fake economies (based on fake demand dependent on asset bubbles), fake markets (dependent on QE and low interest rates). It’s the Truman Show, folks."

Frontrunning: August 22

  • Trump commits to a 'fight to win' in Afghan war (Reuters)
  • Stay or Go? Some Trump Aides Are Pressed From All Sides (WSJ)
  • Futures higher as traders pick up beaten-down stocks (Reuters)
  • Divers Search Compartments of Ship for Missing Sailors (WSJ)
  • Why Do U.S. Navy Ships Keep Colliding? (BBG)

Stocks Rebound As Europe Ends 3-Day Losing Streak; VIX, Gold, Bonds Slide

S&P futures are modestly in the green, following gains in European and Asian shares, after the cash index climbed on Monday for the first time in three days as volatility tumbled amid abysmal trading volumes. European stocks joined an Asian stock rally following three days of losses. Bonds, gold, VIX and the yen declined despite another warning from Ray Dalio who said he was "reducing risk."

Europe Is Committing Demographic Suicide

"Muslim believers know very well that their fertility is such today, that they call it... the Great Replacement. They tell you in a very calm, very positive way: One day all this, all this will be ours..." - Luc Ravel, The Archbishop of Strasbourg.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On The (Jackson) Hole

Absent any major geopolitical shocks, it is set to be a quiet summer week ahead with focus on the Jackson Hole conference. On the data front the key releases will be US durable goods and Eurozone PMIs, as well as Japan inflation & UK and Norway GDP.

FX Week Ahead: Jackson Hole, And A Chance For Yellen To Fend Off Some USD Bashing

Coming off a mixed week for the USD, traders focus their attention on the Jackson Hole symposium which starts on Thursday, running through to Saturday.  Within this, Friday's address by the Fed chair will take centre stage, and for all the 'will she, won't she' talk about monetary policy, the market will be hanging on Janet Yellen's words, as the third rate hike for 2017 remains in the balance. 

Gavekal On The Coming Clash Of Empires: Russia's Role As A Global Game-Changer

Just when China is starting to offer an alternative—an alternative that the US should be trying to bury—the US is moving to “weaponize” the dollar and pound other nations—even those as geo-strategically vital as Russia—for simple domestic political reasons. It all seems so short-sighted.

Bitcoin Cash Soars 70% Overnight Amid Bitcoin Uncertainty & China Crackdown

Bitcoin Cash soared overnight, spiking as high as $569 (from below $300) as renewed uncertainty around Bitcoin re-forking, reports that the first 8mb block has been mined, and fears over further crackdowns in China on Bitcoin trading sparked demand for the forked currency, pushing it back up to the 3rd biggest cryptocurrency by market cap.