Just like stocks go up on Tuesdays in the US (and Wednesdays in Japan).. and volatility always falls... so shortly after 8am ET this morning 'someone' decided it was the optimal time to unleash $450 million notional of gold futures. Just as we saw earlier in the week, this sizable dump only achieved a $5 depreciation in price as it seems the inexorable efforts of status quo stabilizers to ensure the only real indicator of empire collapse is not flashing red remain in full effect. Given that Barclays is now out ofthe business of rigging gold prices, the question remains: who is?
Using espionage for gain in negotiations is an age-old tactic; but are the norms of 'appropriate' espionage changing?
Central banks see their main role now in supporting asset markets, the economy, the banks, and the government. They are positively petrified of potentially derailing anything through tighter policy. They will structurally “under-tighten”. Higher inflation will be the endgame but when that will come is anyone’s guess. Growth will, by itself, not lead to a meaningful response from central bankers. No country has ever become more prosperous by debasing its currency and ripping off its savers. This will end badly...
It is not too early to ask how the present US business cycle expansion, already more than five years old, will end. The history of the last great US monetary experiment in “quantitative easing” (QE) from 1934-7 suggests that the end could be violent. Autumn 1937 featured one of the largest New York stock market crashes ever accompanied by the descent of the US economy into the notorious Roosevelt Recession. As we noted previously - it's never different this time...
While the defenders of HFT continue spouting their usual platitudes (with the latest piece of "anti-hyperbolic" fluff coming from "Mr. Quant" (but don't call him an HFTer) Cliff Asness himself who said overnight that "markets are "rigged" in favor of, not against, retail investors"... so - rigged?) the reality is that while one can debate the ethics of HFT frontrunning orderflow until one is blue in the face (or until Goldman tells the DOJ to slam the hammer on the high freaks once and for all), the biggest adverse impact from HFT continues to be the inherent instability that algo trading creates in the market. For empirical evidence of just this, we once again go to the usual source which everyone ignores until months after the fact is seen as having been right about everything, Nanex, which looks at one particular aspect of market instability, namely Limit Up, Limit Down circuit breakers and finds something very disturbing.
The key news overnight were global manufacturing PMIs which can be summarized as follows: Japan contraction; China contraction, but less than expected (as reported before); and most recently, Europe which expanded but dropped and missed, at 52.5, down from 53.4 and below the consensus estimate of 53.2. The weakness was fully driven by France which has moved back into a contraction phase in both manufacturing and services, which were 49.3 and 49.2, down from 51.2 and 50.4, respectively (although with the recent surge in train station remodelling, the mfg aspect may soon be boosted). The market soaked up the Chinese numbers with fervor, sending the algo-controlled USDJPY into a buying frenzy which in turn pushed up US equity futures, only to see a gradual fade of the Chinese euphoria when the European data hit.
China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI has now spent 3 years within 2 points of the crucial '50' demarcation between contraction and expansion but as the following chart shows, something seems 'odd' about the last few months apparent stability. Tonight China HSBC PMI printed a stunning 49.7 crushing the expectation of 48.3 (modestly above last month's 48.1) but still in contraction for the 5th month in a row (the longest contraction since Oct 2012). This was China's biggest spike in PMI in 9 months led by increases in new orders, production, and new export orders... but employment fell to new lows. Japan's Markit PMI also printed in 'contraction' territory for the 2nd month in a row - its first since Abenomics began.
On the surface, the economic atmosphere of the U.S. has appeared rather calm and uneventful. Stocks are up, employment isn’t great but jobs aren’t collapsing into the void (at least not openly), and the U.S. dollar seems to be going strong. Peel away the thin veneer, however, and a different financial horror show is revealed. With the Ukraine crisis now escalating to fever pitch, BRIC nations are openly discussing the probability of “de-dollarization” in international summits, and the ultimate dumping of the dollar as the world reserve currency. The U.S. is in desperate need of a benefactor to purchase its ever rising debt and keep the system running. Strangely, a buyer with apparently bottomless pockets has arrived to pick up the slack that the Fed and the BRICS are leaving behind. But, who is this buyer? At first glance, it appears to be the tiny nation of Belgium. Clearly, this is impossible, and someone, somewhere, is using Belgium as a proxy in order to prop up the U.S. But who?
- Eric Holder proves he is no US banker puppet by smashing another foreign bank: BNP Falls as U.S. Probe Said to Cost More Than $5 Billion (BBG)
- Fuld Was Top CEO When Fed Last Raised as New Neutral Era Beckons (BBG)
- Tymoshenko loses her magic in Ukraine presidential race (Reuters)
- GOP Sees Primaries Taming the Tea Party (WSJ)
- Heard that one before: Russian troops preparing to leave Ukraine border area (Reuters)
- Vietnam riots land another blow on the global supply chain (FT)
- Heard that one before too: Bank of England minutes show some members closer to voting for rate rise (Reuters)
- BOJ Refrains From Easing With Signs Japan Weathering Tax Rise (BBG)
- Miner Freeport Pressured by Water Costs as Copper Prices Slide (WSJ)
- Talks to end Thai crisis inconclusive, new round called (Reuters)
- Japan Court Blocks Reactor Restarts (WSJ)
Another right of perfectly round number supports: while the Shanghai Composite once again dipped below 2000 overnight to as low as 1991 only to close modestly higher, and the Nikkei followed suit, also sliding below the psychological support level of 14,000 to an intraday low of 13,964 only to close just above 14,000 if in the red, it was the USDJPY that has suffered the most technical pain when shortly after 2:30 am eastern time, the USDJPY dropped by nearly 40 pips, hours after the BOJ indicated that not only is it happy with where in the QE process it stands, but hinted there may well be no more QE, and certainly nothing imminent . In the process, the USDJPY fully smashed the 200 DMA, with the next key parallel support being the 200DMA in the EURJPY at 138.08 (which was at 138.34 last). When that too gives way, it is a straight line to double digits in the USDJPY, and the countdown to the end of the Abe regime begins in earnest.
Given that zero economists surveyed expected any further QQE in this May BoJ statement, the market's positive knee-jerk reaction to the "unchanged" nature is odd:
*BOJ RETAINS PLAN FOR 60T-70T YEN ANNUAL RISE IN MONETARY BASE (coz it's working so well)
*BOJ SEES DECLINE IN DEMAND AFTER SALES TAX HIKE (whocouldanode?)
*BOJ SAYS EASING IS HAVING INTENDED IMPACT ON ECONOMY (crushing consumer through increasingly expensive import costs?)
The excitement must be based on them saying that "exports have leveled off more or less" and the economy is "recovering moderately." One can't help but feel like this run-stop pop will be faded very quickly... as hope is pushed to July for moar QQE.
Asia's exploding demand for methamphetamine has left them with a problem... too few cooks and not enough ingredients. As AFP reports, strong and growing demand for drugs in Asia is driving up global production of methamphetamine, with seizures in the region tripling in five years to record levels, a UN report below shows. China has had particularly severe problems, it said. In 2008, Chinese authorities seized six tonnes of methamphetamine. That figure soared to more than 16 tonnes in 2012, accounting for about 45 percent of total methamphetamine seizures for Asia that year, the UNODC said. The drug is often trafficked long distances, as we show below, adding the routes being used by drug sellers are becoming increasingly well-trodden. As demand rises, so production has increasingly shifted to Asia with 'Walter Whites' making bases in China, Myanmar, and the Philippinnes.
Recent developments indicate that North Korea is very quietly beginning to expand its commercial interests. Some of this is due to internal change, but it would seem that much larger geopolitical forces are at work.
A specter is haunting Washington, an unnerving vision of a Sino-Russian alliance wedded to an expansive symbiosis of trade and commerce across much of the Eurasian land mass - at the expense of the United States.
To compare Japanese and European bond yields in order to justify an argument for US bond yields staying historically low once the Federal Reserve is completely out of bond buying is a failed comparison.