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Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve has been telegraphing to markets that they are going to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month at its December Fed Meeting.

Key Economic Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

It may be a holiday shortened week in the US with Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales on deck (some of which may be starting as soon as Wednesday) but there is a lot of macro data to digest in the next few days.

Global Stocks Fall For First Time In Six Days As Commodity Rout Spills Over Into Stocks

As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.

The Long, Cold Winter Ahead

With enough monetary deception anything’s possible. But, nonetheless, gravity still exists.

Abe Scrambles To Keep ADB Relevant As Xi Dispenses "Belt" Whipping

The global economic order is shifting beneath the feet of Washington and Tokyo as Xi marches ahead with "One Belt, One Road" and prepares to extend the first loans from the China-led development bank that embarrassed the Obama administration earlier this year. 

When Wall Street Gets DeFANGed - Look Out Below!

At this week’s close, the FANG stocks were valued at just under $1.2 trillion, meaning they have gained $450 billion of market cap or 60% during the last 11 months - even as their combined earnings for the September LTM period were up by only 13%. In a word, the gamblers are piling on to the last train out of the station. And that means look out below!

Weekend Reading: Differing Diatribes

Importantly, while the "bias" of the market is to the upside, primarily due to the psychological momentum that "stocks are the only game in town," the mounting risks are clearly evident. From economic to earnings-related weakness, the "bullish underpinnings" are slowly being chipped away.

These Are The Year-End Pain Trades

  • US dollar sell-off: Nov’15 Global FMS shows “long dollar” most crowded trade
  • EM rally: China deval complicates rally but humiliated EM ripe for bounce as Fed hike expectations peak
  • Positioning less "bearish": risk rally is "narrow" and vulnerable to quick profit-taking in event-rich December: deteriorating RSP/SPY ratio