Japan

'Real' Money & Why You Need It Now, Part 2

"It might work for a while. But the falcon of asset prices becomes deaf to the falconer of the real economy. Then, in a kind of financial never-never land, he gets lost completely and flies into a tree. Asset prices fall to the ground. Investors panic. Lenders call their loans. Art investors rush to auction off their tableaux. Lines form at ATMs."

Where Are We In The Business Cycle: A Troubling Chart From Morgan Stanley

According to Morgan Stanley, 2017 will be a year in which odds of a boom and bust have materially increased, consistent with a late-cycle US environment. So late, in fact, that one look at the chart below shows the US cycle has not only plateaued but is now stalling and is turning over.

The Ten Consequences Of Trump

For those who were wrong about the United States’ presidential election, it is worth suppressing emotional reactions, at least for a month or two, and attempting a dispassionate judgment about what Donald Trump’s administration may mean for the world. So here are ten likely consequences of the Trump presidency, divided equally between the good and the bad.

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Global Stocks Slide On Italian Bank Worries; Dollar Dips As Trumpflation Takes A Back Seat

European shares dipped and U.S. equity-index futures (-0.3%) pointed to a lower open as traders questioned the stability of the Italian banking sector ahead of next weekend's referendum as well as the longevity of the Trumpflation rally, pressuring the dollar.  "It's a bit of a pull back in the dollar," said Societe Generale strategist Alvin Tan. "The fall in oil is pushing back U.S. bond yields and that is leading the consolidation in the dollar.. there is more scepticism about an (OPEC) output cut now."

Geopolitical Overhaul: What Will A Post-Obama World Look Like?

Debt reduction and the visible reduction of what is seen internationally as overbearing statism in the U.S. economy will be critical to building back long-term U.S. global capabilities. The U.S. has not seen such an opportunity for strategic reversal since the Reagan Administration. But only if the incoming Administration adheres to the principles which won it the election, and avoids the compromises which the bureaucratic base of government will attempt to force on it to avoid disruption of the status quo.

Towards An 'America First' Trump Trade Policy

America responded to Trump’s call for a new nationalism rooted in the economic principles and patriotism of Hamilton and the men of Mount Rushmore: Washington, Lincoln, Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt. The president-elect has declared the TPP dead, and says he and his negotiators will walk away rather than accept another NAFTA. Again, good, but again, not good enough, not nearly...The New International Economic Order imposed upon us for decades has to be overthrown.

Will Trumponomics Save Us From A Bust?

Can Trump-economics prevent the asset price inflation now infecting the global economy - with its origins in the radical monetary experiment under the Obama Administration - from moving on to its late deadly phase?

Furious Dollar Rally Fizzles On "Black Friday"; US Stocks Set To Open At New All-Time Highs

Having soared to fresh 13 year highs in a quiet overnight session on thin liquidity due to the US Thanksgiving holiday the dollar pared back its weekly advance with modest profit taking after traders wondered if the rally has gotten "too stretched." European shares were fractionally higher, with Asian stocks and US equity futures rising and both the Dow Jones and the S&P set for new all time highs.

All Aboard The Post-TPP World

Whatever the contours of Trump’s China/Asia foreign policy, Eurasian integration will proceed unabated. TPP – or NATO on trade, the Asian version - is just a scalp in a long and winding road. And on the South China Sea, dialogue is slowly edging out the confrontation fomented throughout the Obama administration.

How Much Government Debt Rests Upon Your Shoulders?

While giant numbers like $20 trillion sound abstract and meaningless, converting them to debt-per-capita can make things more intuitive. While many are rightly concerned about what Trump policies mean for government debt, it is the Belgians, Singaporeans, Irish, and Japanese that should really be worrying...