Which Will Effect U.S. Stocks By ...
Conserving what is failing is not a path to stability.
Why Greece is simply a symptom of a much larger problem
The divergence theme is not longer being eclipsed by the Greek drama and the Chinese stock market slide. See how this week's developments fit into the bigger picture.
Greece’s lesson for Russia, and for China and Iran, is to avoid all financial relationships with the West. The West simply cannot be trusted. The “globalism” that is hyped in the West is inconsistent with Washington’s unilateralism. No country with assets inside the Western system can afford to have policy differences with Washington. It is testimony to the insouciance of our time that the stark inconsistency of globalism with American unilateralism has passed unnoticed.
There has been so much attention on Greece in recent weeks, but the truth is that Greece represents only a very tiny fraction of an unprecedented global debt bomb which threatens to explode at any moment. The only “solution” under our current system is to kick the can down the road for as long as we can until this colossal debt pyramid finally collapses in upon itself.
The last time these criteria were met... stocks plunged over 90% over the next 24 months.
China’s central bank is officially in the business of financing leveraged stock buying and as Bloomberg reports, the country's state-run margin lender now has the capacity to pump the equivalent of five Greek bailouts into leveraged stock trades.
- Back Greek talks or face chaos, Merkel tells German lawmakers (Reuters)
- Fear of the Unknown Binds a Greek Deal With Few Believers (WSJ)
- Grexit Still on the Table Even With EU’s Latest Band-Aid (BBG)
- Donald Tusk warns of extremist political contagion (FT)
- Germany, Not Greece, Should Exit the Euro (BBG)
- Sabine Files Bankruptcy in New York as Oil Prices Fall (BBG)
- Markets Bow to Central Bankers as Bonds Rise, Pound Strengthens (BBG)
After weeks of overnight turbulence following every twist and turn in the Greek drama, this morning has seen a scarcity of mostly gap up (or NYSE-breakding "down") moves, and S&P500 futures are unchanged as of this moment however the Nasdaq is looking set for another record high at the open after last night's better than expected GOOG results which sent the stop higher by 11% of over $40 billion in market cap. We expect this not to last very long as the traditional no volume, USDJPY-levitation driven buying of ES will surely resume once US algos wake up and launch the self-trading spoof programs. More importantly: a red close on Friday is not exactly permitted by the central planners.
Whether China is busy championing trade deals outside of the US dollar, buying up some of the world’s biggest companies, taking over foreign housing markets, or building massive networks of nuclear or wind power grids, it is clear that the country is a world power to be reckoned with. To be considered a true force, China also needs to be able to back up its economic and political might with a top notch military. Today’s infographic compares the armed forces of China with the United States.
After a brief "don't fight the PBOC" three days of releveraging, China margin debt declined once again to 4-month lows. An opening pop - as is now ubiquitous has faded in FTSE China A50 futures but CSI-300 futures (which expire today and are this subject to some 'odd' behavior) are holding modest gains, despite a quarter of Chinese stocks remain halted. For those tempted back in to the deep end of global equity risk, we offer what must go down as the Baghdad Bob quote of the year, from the Chairman of HKEX, "China's stock market is the safest in the world."
Hyperinflation in the U.S. is coming sometime in the next 20 years or so, and this isn't a cry from a Chicken Little, but a conclusion that the analysis strongly suggests. It is possible hyperinflation could happen during the next few years, but that seems unlikely since it would require a series of major crises and political blunders – events unprecedented in the history of the United States. If this led to a corruption of Constitutional rights in the midst of an exaltation of the Executive Branch that resulted in loss of the rule of law, hyperinflation might result. It is much more probable that hyperinflation will be preceded by a long slow decline that will include a protracted period of high inflation, and that the crash of the dollar and hyperinflation will be the final tumble off a looming, steep cliff.
THIS IS THE REAL CRISIS THAT GREECE WILL TRIGGER SHORTLY .