Keynesian policy of manipulating economic “aggregates” through countercyclical macro-measures appeared to work when balance sheets were not stretched to the brink. The glaringly obvious result of such policies, gross capital consumption through malinvestments epitomized through a serial bubble economy, did not discourage our money masters. The best and brightest even suggest bubbles are the only remedy to what they believe is some sort of secular stagnation. Just as drugs, the abuser must increase the dosage to feel the same high and spend accordingly.
In Part 1 of “The New Silk Road,” we examined the China’s plan for rebuilding the silk road, stretching from Europe to Asia. In Part 2, we looked at currently proposed projects, and what could stall and hamper progress. In Part 3, we examine the geopolitical rivalries, prospects for success, and investment implications.
The similarities between today and the 1929 era suggest a massive crash could be appraoching.
On the heels of what appeared to be an ultimatum from EU creditors, Greece remains defiant on pension cuts and a VAT hike, testing the troika's resolve as the countdown to the next maybe-deadline continues. Meanwhile, Germany warns that Grexit could embolden EU "separatist" movements and Dijsselbloem reminds Tsipras that noncompliance isn't an option.
For a sense of what is driving sentiment this morning look no further than the Athens stock market which exploded higher yesterday on a Bloomberg story based on "two sources" that Germany was willing to compromise, only to close just as the IMF pulled a classis bad cop and announced it was halting work on Greece, and before further news from Bild that Germany was preparing for a Greek default while Europe had given Greece 24 hours to submit a final, workable proposal. As a result, it tumbled promptly at the open even as optimism persists and since the opening plunge, Greek stocks have continued to climb and are now back to yesterday's euphoric opening levels.
When in a hole, stop digging. But when in a bubble, keep blowing. Our ruling and wealthy elite are worried that they are stuck in their own ponzi scheme or bubble and are suffering from the general problem of all ponzis and bubbles – how to get out.
Gold bugs weren’t wrong - just super early. If central banks ever got religion and pulled a Volcker and hiked rates to the moon, it would be a remarkably bad time to hold gold. However, throughout history, there have been times where people were very sad that they didn’t own gold. We talk about one of them here. It’s very real, and the history of fiat currencies is also quite sad.
As China builds its own multilateral institutions, Beijing has been keen to dispel the notion that it seeks to supplant the Bretton Woods order with its own brand of Eastern hegemony and although one can certainly question the degree to which China’s aims are rooted purely in an inclination to be benevolent towards nations in need of fixed asset investment, Beijing is making an effort to distance itself from the way the US governs the institutions under its control.
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda has managed to do it again. In his now daily missives on "deflation mindset being over", "economy is on the right track", "QQE is working", and his best yet "BoJ has no plan to finance government debt", Kuroda unleashed the ultimate idiocy last night when he proclaimed "it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner." USDJPY has fallen over 2 handles for the biggest surge in JPY strength in 6 months... to which Amari noted "Kuroda didn't intend to move market with his remarks." Irony indeed.
What's the Worst-Case Scenario?
The bounce in risk we are witnessing today will not last. The underlying moves in the largest markets in the world are equal to those we saw during the 2008 Crash. Stocks are ALWAYS the last to "get it."
After a Chinese session which following the MSCI failure to include Chinese stocks in its EM index, if only for the time being, was largely a dud with Shanghai stocks actually dropping by 0.1% after a late day selloff, eyes turned to Europe, which once again did not disappoint and where the bond rout continued apace, with the 10Y Bund yield spiking just after the European open, and rising above 1.05%, the widest level since September 19, before recouping some losses and trading just around 1.00% at last check.
As Russia adjusts to Western sanctions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine, Gazprom is now settling all crude sales to China in renminbi. At the intersection of the petrodollar's death and yuan hegemony is: the PetroYuan...
In a stunning report by The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Director General Yukiya Amano fingers Japanese over-confidence and complacency among the main reasons why the country was unprepared to the Fukushima Daiichi disaster of 2011. As Sputnik News reports, Amano exclaimed "there was a widespread belief in Japan that Japanese nuclear power plants are very safe and there would never be a severe accident. This belief was one of the reasons why Japan was not well prepared for severe accident." Four years later, he hopes many have learned the painful lesson that "there can be no grounds for complacency about nuclear safety in any country."
Germany Enters Correction; EMs In Longest Losing Streak Since 1990 Routed By Turkey, Obama Turmoils DollarSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/08/2015 06:48 -0400
While there were key macroeconomic data out of Asia earlier in the session, with Japan revising its Q1 GDP up from 2.4% to 3.9% (due to an upward revision to capex) making some wonder if it simply didn't snow in Japan this winter, as well as Chinese trade data that was once again disappointing with the third consecutive drop in exports coupled with an 18.1% collapse in imports hinting that nothing is going well in China's economy (which once again sent stocks soaring this time up another 2.2% on certainty another PBOC rate cut is imminent, pushing the PBOC to a fresh 7-year high of 5,132), it was actually a leaked Obama comment on the strong USD that moved markets.