Japan

Is The Latest Risk-Parity Blow Up Just Starting

"the focus on risk parity unwinds is here to stay even beyond the next couple of weeks. As the polls for the US elections narrow further, higher volatility and increasing likelihood of fiscal stimulus will keep this theme alive.”"

Raoul Pal: Business Cycle Tinder For A Global Banking System Fire

"...after every single two-term presidential election (i.e. when the incumbent changes) and there is a 100% track record of a recession within the next 12 months. It either starts just beforehand or starts afterward, but within 12 months there is a 100% chance of a recession... Even if they do raise rates, the yield curve will flatten like crazy... I think the Fed is almost an irrelevance at this point."

Previewing Next Week's Main Event: What Will The BOJ Do? (Spoiler Alert: Probably Nothing)

At the BOJ's next Monetary Policy Meeting on September 20-21, the Central Bank will conduct a “comprehensive assessment” of trends in economic activity and prices under the current policy framework, as well as the policy impact, with a view to achieving its 2% price stability target at the earliest possible time. Here is what to expect from next week's main event.

Ken Rogoff’s Government Debt Default Plan

Ken Rogoff is by all accounts a brilliant man. The Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist is a chess grandmaster. His thesis committee included current Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer. But like many survivors of Ivy League hoop jumping, the poor fellow appears to have emerged punch drunk. That’s the only conclusion to be drawn from Rogoff’s new book, The Curse of Cash , which, in effect, proposes a ban on paper currency.

Frontrunning: September 16

  • Deutsche Bank to fight $14 billion demand from U.S. authorities (Reuters)
  • Exxon’s Accounting Practices Are Investigated (WSJ)
  • European leaders seek elusive 'road map' after Brexit shock (Reuters)
  • Johnson Said to Tell Italy Exit Talks Likely to Start Early 2017 (BBG)
  • Brexit Bulletin: Merkel Sings the Bratislava Blues (BBG)

US Futures; Euro Stocks Slide On Deutsche Bank Liquidity Fears; Bonds Bid

Following yesterday's paradoxical US stock surge catalyzed by a bevy of bad macroeonomic news, the overnight session has seen some good old "risk off" mood which hit European shares as a result of the previously reported $14 billion DOJ claim against Deutsche Bank, which sent Europe's biggest bank tumbling, dragging the banking sector lower, while a continued drop in the price of oil pushed energy companies lower.

European, Japanese Bankers Threaten Mutiny Over Basel Committee's Capital Rules

European and Japanese banking officials are reportedly enraged that the (US-backed) world's top banking regulator would dare to demand banks hold higher levels of capital to meet credit, market and operational risks. These rules are not new, of course, but the bankers, used to getting their own way reportedly demanded in two heated meetings this week that The Basel Committee 'scale back; the rules to ensure the rules have no “particularly negative consequences for specific regions,” such as Europe.

Bernanke Urges Use Of Negative Rates When Next Recession Strikes

"the fact that negative rates would be temporary and deployed only during severely adverse economic conditions would be an advantage. Like quantitative easing, which was also unpopular in many quarters, a period of negative rates would probably be tolerated by politicians if properly motivated and explained" - Ben Bernanke

Taper Tantrum II: "There's No Simple, Painless Solution"

It is time for central banks to start acknowledging their limitations, and doing so by acting and not talking about their future intentions. It is also time for investors to stop believing that central banks had the answers to begin with.

US Futures, European Stocks Rebound, Bonds Fall Ahead Of US Data Deluge

The overnight session started with more weakness out of Asia, where chatter that the BOJ may end up doing nothing despite all the trial balloons (as we hinted yesterday), sent the USDJPY sliding, pushing the Nikkei lower, leading to a 7th consecutive decline in the Topix, the longest such stretch since 2014 even though the BOJ is now actively buying a record amount of ETFs. However, the modest dip in S&P futures and European stocks proved too much for BTFD algos, and risk promptly rebounded.

The Bank Of Japan Unleashes Chaos

"...even if we have the press release listing exactly what the BoJ was going to do, the market response to various policy mixes is such a coin-flip that it’s nearly impossible to prognosticate."

US Import Prices Tumble For 25th Month In A Row As China's Deflationary Impulse Hits Fresh 6 Year Lows

Great news America - it's been over 2 full years since the cost of imported goods rose year-over-year (dropping 2.2%in August as expected). The month-over-month drop of 0.2% was bigger than expected and was the first drop since February as US airfares reportedly tumbled (especially to Europe). China's deflationary contagion hit fresh 6 year lows but prices from almost every region declined.