Japan

• U.S. Treasury's Lew says China will be held accountable on currency (Reuters) ... but not Japan
• Bank of Japan Not Convinced of Need for Further Easing (WSJ)
• Stocks Advance With Commodities on Signs of European Revival (BBG)
• IMF Says China Slowdown, Other Risks Threaten Global Outlook (WSJ)
• Xi Says China No Threat, Announces Military Cuts at Parade (BBG)
• China holds massive military parade, to cut troop levels by 300,000 (Reuters)
• Migrants leave Budapest for Austrian frontier; pressure builds for EU action (Reuters)

All eyes will be on Mario Draghi on Thursday as expectations for something big from the former Goldmanite have grown over the past two weeks. More specifically, some now think the odds of QE expansion have increased considerably in light of collapsing eurozone inflation expectations, the incipient threat of some $1 trillion in QE-offsetting EM FX reserve draw downs, turmoil in China's financial markets, heightened volatility across the globe, and chaos in emerging markets from LatAm to AsiaPac.

With China closed today, the usual overnight market manipulation fireworks out of Beijing were absent but that does not meant asset levitation could not take place, and instead of the daily kick start out of China today it has been all about the ECB which as we previewed two days ago, is expected - at least by some such as ABN Amro - to outright boost its QE, while virtually everyone else expects Draghi to not only cut the ECB's inflation forecast, which reminds us of the chart which in March we dubbed the biggest hockeystick ever (we knew it wouldn't last) but to verbally jawbone the Euro as low as possible (i.e., the Dax as high as it will get) even if the former Goldmanite does not explicitly commit to more QE.

Live feed from China's Tiananmen Square, where moments ago, China's historic 70th V-Day celebration parade has begun.

"Not 'IF' but 'WHEN central banks lose control?' The global financial repression pushed investors to invest cash in risky assets, such as property and equity. The scale of global policy interventions is trumping all fundamental factors for now. Investors should keep in mind that the road is never straight and next month should be full of potentially disruptive events impacting sharply overcrowded assets and trades. History shows that such misallocation of resources creates bubbles that can last before fully blowing; the question is not if, but when."

News That Matters

While many continue to debate if what with every passing day increasingly looks like a global recession, one from which the US will not decouple no matter how many "virtual portfolio" asset managers claim the contrary, there are those who without much fanfare are already taking proactive steps to avoid the kind of fallout that the markets have hinted in the past month of trading, is inevitable. Some such as Calstrs: the nation's second largest pension fund with $191 billion in assets (smaller only than Calpers), which as the WSJ reports is "considering a significant shift away from some stocks and bonds amid turbulent markets world-wide."  According to the WSJ, it will move as much as $20 billion, or 12% of the fund’s stock  portfolio, into other assets, including Treasurys.

Mario Draghi and the ECB have a habit of patting themselves on the back when it comes to what they imagine the happy outcomes of their monetary policy decisions have been. In fact, they have a habit of congratulating themselves on positive outcomes even before said outcomes have been observed or have even had time to play out. This time around unfortunately, "the failure looks clear."

If there is one thing more or less guaranteed to create a bullish scenario for stocks, it is the sudden flip-flop of world-renowned newsletter writer Dennis Gartman once again to a short-of-stocks position. Worse still, his fellow newsletter writers, according to AAII, have not been this 'unbullish' since the trough in March 2009. Of course, what many are missing this morning isd 120 points of The Dow's gains are due to the panic-intervention by The BoJ at last night's Japan open...

Since today was the last day of trading for Chinese stocks this week ahead of the 4-day extended September 3 military parade holiday to mark the 70th anniversary of the allied victory over Japan, and since Chinese stocks opened to yet another early trading rout coupled with the PBOC's biggest Yuan strengthening since 2010 as we observed earlier, there was only one thing that was certain: massive intervention by the Chinese "National Team" to get stocks as close to green as possible. Sure enough they tried, and tried so hard the "hulk's" green color almost came through in the last hour of trading and yet, despite the symbolic importance of having a green close at least one day this week ahead of China's victory over a World War II foe, Beijing was unable to defeat the market even once in the latest week which will hardly bode well for Chinese stocks come next week.

Wax on Wax off,risk on today risk off tomorrow.....things could spiral out of control rather quickly

Chinese stocks are opening lower: SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS 4.6% TO 3,020.84 AT OPEN as PBOC fixes Yuan stronger for the 4th day in a row - the most in 5 years.

China credit risk has spiked to 2-year highs as traders increase positions dramatically.

A President Trump may be able to make small changes here or there, “But the setting of the bureau’s activities is determined by rules and regulations which are beyond his reach.” Presidents come and go, but the unelected bureaucracy always remains. For all his simpleton bluster, even the mighty Trump is no match for the leviathan.

"...don’t worry, even if I evolve into terminator I will still be nice to you, I will keep you warm and safe in my people zoo where I can watch you for old time’s sake."