Japan

According to sources, a Japanese Ministry of Finance official has said that it is now ready for a "Bettle on the Yen." Just headlines for now. Much more will be revealed later when the G-7 meets to discuss how to further weaken the currency in a coordinated effort. An immediate pop in the USDJPY above 79 follow this statement. The fact that we are getting nothing but posturing from the BOJ instead of actual intervention, such as we saw last when the USDJPY hit 80.30 in late October continues to be quite troubling. In the meantime, the NZDUSD, another funding pair has been taking on some water in early trading.

MSNBC presents an immersive 360 panorama view from the middle of the Japanese earthquake devastation. As usual, a picture is worth a thousand explanatory columns.

The latest summary update of all the latest development in and around the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (bold is recent).

While Japan has been closely guarding radiation data particularly in the most impacted Fukushima region very closely, Zero Hedge has procured a fallout map showing radiation levels in the immediate NPP vicinity. To our surprise, despite Northwesterly winds (i.e., those blowing from that direction), the bulk of the fallout is concentrated precisely in that direction with a reading area 30 km NorthWest (see Reading Point 21 on the map below) of the plant showing reading of up to 80 microsieverts. What is perplexing is that the readings by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), unfortunately just two of them, differ from the official ones Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) substantially. The materially higher readings reported by JAEA are notable outliers despite readings in a proximal region by MEXT indicating substantially lower readings. Is the Ministry of Truth now directly experiments with the radioactive tolerance of people by cutting the odd zero here and there?

Right now there is a mass exodus out of the city of Tokyo. But not everyone can leave the city. There are over 30 million people living in and around Tokyo. So where in the world could you possibly put 30 million refugees?

Chernobyl was attempted to be covered up 100% at the beginning, even though eventually 600,000 people used as "liquidators" were eventually brought in to cleanup, the first 200,000 were exposed to heavy radiation. Some pictures (still in my mind from 1986) showed workers in normal street clothes shovelling radioactive materials into wheelbarrows. Tokyo Electric Power tried to cover up their problems at the start, the Prime Minister was reportedly extremely mad when they finally fessed up a little bit 3 hours after it had already become a real problem.

Mizuho, the second-largest financial services company in Japan, has just locked out its customers from accessing their cash. Whether or not this is related to Zero Hedge reports from yesterday that the same bank is unable to complete ¥570 billion in transactions in unclear. What is clear is that we can only hope that those who need cash are calm and collected enough not to start a physical run on whatever bank deposit branches are open. From Reuters: "Mizuho Bank said on Thursday that all of its automatic teller machines (ATM) throughout Japan have stopped working. The bank did not immediately give a reason for the outage." One can only hope that the most recent ¥5 trillion injection was sufficient to keep the liquidity in the banking system online. Alas, should the Mizuho situation not be promptly fixed, we anticipate more injections from the BOJ before the night is out.

The "powerline" meme which suddenly everyone is talking about, may be a little premature according to TEPCO:

• TEPCO CANNOT CONFIRM IF THE POWERLINE IS ALMOST DONE OR NOT

And in the meantime the NRC's Chairman Jaczko comes out swinging with some more bull in china shop statements:

• JACZKO SAYS PEAK NUCLEAR RADIATION LEVELS IN JAPAN `VERY HIGH'
  
• JACZKO SAYS PEAK LEVELS `LETHAL' AFTER `FAIRLY SHORT' EXPOSURE

And the worst news comes from AP:

• NO MORE MORE WATER IN SPENT FUEL POOL AT JAPAN NUCLEAR PLANT:AP

To all trading this headline driven market, our sincerest condolences.

This is about as pathetic as it gets. In order to deal with a new baseline level of radiation across Fukushima (which Japan still refuses to discloses to the world because it is "Under Survey"), the Japanese ministry of health labor has decided to take the unilateral act of scrapping years of safety data, and more than doubled the maximum allowable exposure for nuclear workers from 100 millisieverts to 250 millisieverts. At least we now know that the radiation level around Fukushima is most likely bounded by this range. As to the reason for the increase, the ministry said it is "unavoidable due to the circumstances." In other words, when self-administered Seppuku will not work, just apply it to someone else.

• A helicopter was unable to drop water to cool the No.3 reactor at the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex in northeastern Japan probably because of the high radiation, Kyodo news agency said, quoting the defence minister.
• Police will attempt to cool No.4 reactor's spent nuclear fuel pool using a water cannon, TV says.
• Japan's top government spokesman says radiation levels around the complex are not at levels to cause an immediate health risk.
• There is no evidence of a significant spread of radiation from Japan's crippled nuclear plants, the World Health Organisation says.
• Operator says it is unable to resume work cooling the reactors due to radiation risk. Workers ordered to leave the plant were allowed back in after radiation levels fall. Operator says there were 180 workers on site as of 0230 GMT.
• Operator of the nuclear power complex in northeastern Japan recorded the site's highest levels of radiation at the No.3 reactor on Wednesday.
• Water is being poured into reactors No.5 and No.6 at the plant, the operating company says. Those two reactors had been shut down for scheduled maintenance.

It is not yet clear how devastating the nuclear-reactor damage will prove to be, but the situation appears to be worsening. What is clear is that the potential crisis in the Persian Gulf, the loss of nuclear reactors and the rising radiation levels will undermine the confidence of the Japanese. Beyond the human toll, these reactors were Japan’s hedge against an unpredictable world. They gave it control of a substantial amount of its energy production. Even if the Japanese still had to import coal and oil, there at least a part of their energy structure was largely under their own control and secure. Japan’s nuclear power sector seemed invulnerable, which no other part of its energy infrastructure was. For Japan, a country that went to war with the United States over energy in 1941 and was devastated as a result, this was no small thing. Japan had a safety net. The safety net was psychological as much as anything. The destruction of a series of nuclear reactors not only creates energy shortages and fear of radiation; it also drives home the profound and very real vulnerability underlying all of Japan’s success. Japan does not control the source of its oil, it does not control the sea lanes over which coal and other minerals travel, and it cannot be certain that its nuclear reactors will not suddenly be destroyed. To the extent that economics and politics are psychological, this is a huge blow. Japan lives in constant danger, both from nature and from geopolitics. What the earthquake drove home was just how profound and how dangerous Japan’s world is. It is difficult to imagine another industrial economy as inherently insecure as Japan’s. The earthquake will impose many economic constraints on Japan that will significantly complicate its emergence from its post-boom economy, but one important question is the impact on the political system.

You asked for it, and here it is - a fully interactive Japan wind map which includes forecasting up to 3 days forward. By the looks of things, the Jetstream is about to start glowing in the dark.

Japan is back in recession. The incoming tide just brought in 2,000 bodies. Most major companies, including Toyota, Nissan, Honda, and Sony have shut down all domestic production. Tokyo’s subway system is closed, stranding 25 million residents there. Electric power shortages are a huge problem. Half the country’s nuclear generating capacity is now down. 20,000 expatriates waiting at Tokyo’s Narita airport as foreign companies evacuate staff to avoid a nuclear meltdown. $187 billion worth of credit intervention to “save Japan.”

Jason Kelly, a financial writer living in Sano, Japan, shares his first person experience of the stunning events from the past several days: "The power interruptions and damage to infrastructure are leaving stores in Japan’s earthquake area sold out. Gas stations are rationing, but closing one by one as they go dry. Between a third and half of the shops in my town, Sano, are closed for various reasons, not least of which is to let society catch its breath. The following pictures were taken by mobile phone at stores in Sano"

Following reports that all major banks have pulled their employees out of Tokyo overnight, finally broad evacuations are starting to spread to the ordinary citizens, starting with China. AP reports that: "China became the first government to organize a mass evacuation of its citizens from Japan's northeast on Tuesday, while other foreigners left the country following radiation leaks at an earthquake-damaged nuclear power plant. Austria said it is moving its embassy from Tokyo to Osaka, 250 miles (400 kilometers) away, due to radiation concerns. France recommended that its citizens leave the Japanese capital, while the U.S. government advised Americans to avoid travel to Japan." And while the Chinese concern for its citizens is admirable, what is peculiar is the complete silence as to how China, which is very much downwind from Fukushima, is handling the fears of its own local citizens regarding spreading radiation.