• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

Japan

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Equity Futures Tumble Again, S&P To Open Under 200DMA, 10Y Yield Approaches 1-Handle





The overnight market has been a repeat of yesterday's action, when following China's repeat 1.6% devaluation of the CNY (which was to be expected since the PBOC made it quite clear the fixing would be based off the market value, a value which continues plunging), the second biggest in history following Monday's 1.9% plunge, traders appeared stunned having believed the PBOC's lies that the devaluation was a one-off and as a result the E-Mini tumbled overnight, and is now 30 points lower from last night's PBOC fixing announcement, trading at around 2058, and far below the "magical" 200-DMA support line, which has now been solidly breached.

 
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After The Chinese Devaluation, Who's Next?





On a broader level, the devaluation signals PBOC’s eagerness to join the global currency wars. With the competitive devaluation by various central banks gaining momentum but global trade slowing, the latest CNY devaluation could be seen as likely to force other central banks to consider similar measures before long. One currency that so far has successfully weathered the storm has been JPY... so far...

 
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Japan National Debt Rises To New Record ¥1,057,224,000,000,000





The first half of 2015 saw Japan's national debt rise at its fastest pace in four years, hitting a new record high at ¥1.057 Quadrillion!! Have we reached Keynesian nirvana yet? Or is just a little more "what difference does it make" debt-fueled fallacy going to fix it all?

 
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This Is What Global Currency War Looks Like: A Complete History Of Recent FX Interventions





To help remind readers of what happens when the entire world engages in wholesale currency war, here is a complete list of all the recent FX interventions, courtesy of Stone McCarthy.

 
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China Enters Currency War - Devalues Yuan By Most On Record





As we first warned in March, and as became abundantly clear over the weekend Beijing had no choice but to join the global currency wars, as the yuan's dollar peg will ultimately prove to be too painful going forward. And sure enough this evening the PBOC weakens the Yuan fix by the most on record

 
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A Stunned Wall Street Reacts To China's Currency Devaluation





There is much stunned confusion among Wall Street's "best and brightest" following China's historic Yuan devaluation overnight which was predicted by exactly zero of said best and brightest, just like nobody expected the SNB to give up its own peg to the EUR in January.

 
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Who Could Have Possibly Foreseen China's Shocking Devaluation?





Well, pretty much anyone who is not an economist or Wall Street "strategist" because a mercantilist, export-dominated nation pegged to a currency that has appreciated by an unprecedented amount in the past year, is grounds for nothing short of disaster, or using the parlance of our times, a "hard-landing." Case in point: this is what we said just two days ago when the news of China's dramatic trade collapse hit in a post titled: "Chinese Trade Crashes, And Why A Yuan Devaluation Is Now Just A Matter Of Time"...

 
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Key Events In The Coming Week





Following last week's economic data tempest, capped with the disappointing US nonfarm payrolls, which has provided virtually no clarity on just what the "(Dow Jones) data-driven" Fed will do in a world in which not only is the US economy rolling over, but China is imploding, commodity deflation is raging, and global stock markets are propped up by a handful of stocks, the coming week will be far less exciting (which is just how the Hamptons crowd wants it).

 
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Chinese Stocks Soar On Terrible Economic Data; US Futures Levitate; Brent Drops To 6 Month Lows





Following last week's bad news for the economy (terrible ADP private payrolls, confirmed by a miss in the NFP) which also resulted in bad news for the market which suffered its worst week in years, many were focused on how the market would react to the latest battery of terrible economic news out of China which as we observed over the weekend reported abysmal trade data, and the worst plunge in Chinese factory prices in 6 years. We now know: the Shanghai Composite soared by 5%, rising to 3,928 and approaching the key 4000 level because the ongoing economic collapse led Pavlov's dog to believe that much more easing is coming from the country which as we showed last night has literally thrown the kitchen sink at stabilizing the plunge in stocks.

 
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"They'll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies" Marc Faber Explains Everything





"The future is unknown and we are not dealing with markets that are free markets anymore...now we have government interventions everywhere. [But] in the last say twelve months, I have observed an increasing number of academics who are questioning monetary policies. That's why I think they will take the gold away and go back to some gold standard by revaluing the gold say from now $1000/oz to say $10,000 dollars. An individual should definitely own some physical gold. The bigger question is where should he store it? because... the failure of monetary policies will not be admitted by the professors that are at central banks, they will then go and blame someone else for it and then an easy target would be to blame it on people that own physical gold because - they can argue - well these are the ones that do take money out of circulation and then the velocity of money goes down - we have to take it away from them... That has happened in 1933 in the US."

 
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Chinese Trade Crashes, And Why A Yuan Devaluation Is Now Just A Matter Of Time





Overnight we got another acute reminder of just who is lying hunched over, comatose in the driver's seat of global commerce: the country whose July exports just crashed by 8.3% Y/Y (and down 3.6% from the month before) far greater than the consensus estimate of only a 1.5% drop, and the biggest drop in four months following the modest June rebound by 2.8%: China.

 
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Be Afraid: Japan Is About To Do Something That's Never Been Done Before





When the words "mothballed", "nuclear", and "never been done before" are seen together with Japan in a sentence, the world should be paying attention...

 
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Dropping "The Bomb" On Hiroshima And Nagasaki Was Never Justified





August 6th and 9th of 2015 mark the 70th anniversary of the U.S. dropping two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This was the first and only time a state used a nuclear device on cities (or civilians) of another state. Some conservative estimates put the immediate death toll of the two bombs at 200,000 people. This is more than the total number of American soldiers killed in the Pacific front of World War II. Since the bombs were dropped, the U.S. government, U.S. high school history texts, and the American public have asserted that dropping the bombs was necessary. But was it?

 
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