Japan

China As A Superpower: "They Will Not Be Humiliated Again"

"if China seeks to be a great power in a multipolar world... then China needs to seek a significantly reduced role of the United States in the region. If you accept these propositions, then China clearly needs the capability to counterbalance America’s military dominance in Asia today. After the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crises, they concluded that they needed certain capabilities to ensure that they are not humiliated again."

It's 1994 Again: Why Albert Edwards Expects An Imminent "Bond Market Bloodbath"

"Accelerated Fed rate hikes will cause tremors in the Treasury bond markets, forcing rates up, most especially in the 2 year – just like 1994. But as yet another central bank-inspired global recession unfolds, I  believe US 10y bond yields will ultimately converge with Japanese and European yields well below zero"

Crude Plunges Below $49, Dragging Markets Lower; All Eyes On Draghi

While trader attention will soon be focused on the ECB and any potential tightening hints from the central bank, a more pressing development as US traders walk in today, will be ongoing collapse in WTI, which after crashing 5.5% yesterday, has tumbled more than 2% this morning, sliding not only below $50 for the first time since December 1, but also dropped under $49, as a near record number of net long spec positions suddenly rushes to unwind their exposure.

Frontrunning: March 8

  • GOP Disagrees on How—and Whether—to Pay for Tax Cuts (WSJ)
  • 'It's like kumbaya:' Trump's genial private meetings with CEOs jar with public attacks (Reuters)
  • New Health Plan Sparks Debate Over Obamacare Comparisons (WSJ)
  • China Grants Preliminary Approval to 38 New Trump Trademarks (BBG)
  • Questions About Loyalty to Trump Stall Treasury Picks (BBG)
  • Women in U.S. plan to stay off the job, rally in anti-Trump protests (Reuters)

Stocks Mixed As Treasuries Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since 2012, Dollar Pops Ahead Of ADP

Asian markets dropped following disappointing China trade and Japan GDP data, while European stocks rebounded for the first time in five sessions led by miners and banks. US futures were little changed with a strong dollar pressuring oil below $53; sterling slid for the eighth day out of nine before the chancellor of the exchequer delivers his spring budget. Treasuries are headed for their longest losing streak since 2012 ahead of a 10Y U.S. debt auction, and today's ADP private payrolls report.

The Beginning Of The End Of Calm Bond Markets

Although the market is convinced the Federal Reserve will get aggressive with their rate hikes, I am not sure market participants have thought this through. Let’s not forget the Federal Reserve is sitting on the largest balance sheet in history.

Will The Real Donald Trump Please Stand Up?

Yes there is the Fed, French Elections, Greece, OPEC and dozens of other stories driving the market – but for the next few weeks, what seems to matter most is Which Donald Trump Shows Up?

Speculative Blow-Offs In Stock Markets - Part 2

"...the lagged effects of previous money supply growth excesses are still playing out, just as money supply and credit expansion seems to be coming under pressure. This is combined with a fantasy that is so unlikely, people apparently just cannot bring themselves to doubt its veracity – after all, why would anyone tell such a preposterous story if it were not true?"

Trump Won't Be Happy: US Records Biggest Trade Deficit In 5 Years

In a report that will be closely scrutinized by the trade-sensitive Trump administration, today the Department of Commerce announced that the January trade deficit surged in January 2017, jumping from $44.3 billion in December (revised) to $48.5 billion in January, as imports increased more than exports.This was the biggest trade deficit going back to early 2012.