Japan

Is This The "Mystery" Massive Long Supporting The Oil Market?

"I know this theory is a little out-there. But I look at the recent expansion of crude oil net positioning, and it just doesn’t reflect what I see in the market. China as a big silent buyer is a much more plausible explanation than the fact hedge funds are net long record crude oil because they are so bullish."

"The Smoking Gun": BofA Warns Fed Renormalization Could Send Equities 30% Lower

"The trillion dollar mismatch in Treasury supply/demand dynamics over the next five years will likely trigger an equity-rate disconnect correction, in our view. Our analysis suggests either rates need to be 120bp higher or stocks need to be 30% lower to trigger enough demand to match forward UST supply estimates." - BofA

A Giddy Kim Jong-Un Vows To Send "Bigger Gift Package" To America

After a delighted Kim Jong Un supervised the latest successful test of North Korea's latest ballistic missile controlled by a precision guidance system, the leader ordered the development of more powerful strategic weapons and "expressed the conviction that it would make a greater leap forward in this spirit to send a bigger 'gift package' to the Yankees."

Greek, Italian Risks Weigh On European, Global Markets; Oil, Gold Slide

Tuesday's session started off on the back foot, with the Euro first sliding on Draghi's dovish comments before Europarliament on Monday coupled with a Bild report late on Monday according to which Greece was prepared to forego its next debt payment if not relief is offered by creditors, pushing European stocks lower as much as -0.6%. However the initial weakness reversed after Greece denied the Bild report. S&P futures are fractionally lower

Short Victorious War: US President's Magic Wand To Wave In A Pinch

The public support has dramatically slid down to roughly 38 percent since then. The president is in a pinch. Something needs to be done immediately to rectify the situation. The trend is worrisome and the best tried-and-true way to reverse it is a short victorious war. True, it’s a great risk. But bombing one’s way to popularity may happen to be a temptation impossible to resist.

In Memoriam, 2017

"Those who have fought and died to defend America and its freedoms are noble beyond measure. Those who pay self-serving tribute to their valor, but make war and expend lives as means to corrupt ends are evil beyond redemption. Honor the former; expose and oppose the latter."

"How Does This Ever End?" An Interview With Lacy Hunt

"...our results will mirror Japan over time... They've tried to solve an indebtedness problem by taking on more debt... the secular low in long treasury bonds is not at hand.. [rates] are not going to be able to stay up. The economy is too fundamentally weak..."

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US Payrolls; Eurozone Inflation And Fed Speakers

Focus in this holiday-shortened week will turn to US data, especially NFP, Fed speakers and Eurozone inflation. UK PMIs will also draw attention as elections approach. We also get GDP data from Canada, Sweden and Switzerland. On Monday, Euro FX and bond markets will be on Mario Draghi alert on Monday as the ECB president speaks to the European parliament.

How America Could End Up In An Unexpected War With China

"...the PRC might not be an ally, but there is no reason it should be an enemy. Yet attempting to dominate and contain China risks turning it into an angry and well-armed adversary. Instead, Washington should prepare to share global leadership. Far better to yield thoughtfully while shaping the future than to be forced to concede even more under pressure."

North Korea Launches Another Ballistic Missile

Almost exactly one week after the latest ballistic missile test launch by Pyongyang last Sunday, and two weeks after a similar launch the weekend prior, North Korea has fired its latest unidentified ballistic missile early on Monday.

US Deploys Third Aircraft Carrier Toward North Korea

The United States is sending a third aircraft carrier strike force to the western Pacific region in an apparent warning to North Korea to deter its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. It is extremely rare for the U.S. military to deploy three aircraft carriers in close proximity to each other absent current or imminent military action.