Japan

Key Events In The Coming "Fed Blackout" Week

The spotlight turns to US data and Fed speakers ahead of the Fed blackout period this week. The BoE and SNB meet to decide policy but consensus expect no change from either. Elsewhere we get inflation data from the US, UK, Sweden & EZ (F), Q2 GDP from NZ & SW and labor market data from the UK & AU.

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Gold consolidated after the gains of last week when gold rose 0.25% from $1324/oz to $1328.80/oz. Indeed, it was gold’s second consecutive weekly higher close which is bullish from a technical perspective. Markets being sentiment and momentum driven this could mean the recent correction is over as technical driven traders are likely to take signal from this and go long gold.

"Global Market Rout" - Bond Selloff Snowballs Into Stock Liquidations On "Stimulus Pullback" Fears

With traders in the US arriving at their desks, the global selling appears to be accelerating and as Bloomberg notes, "a selloff in fixed income is starting to snowball into a global market rout" driven by what Reuters dubbed "growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning."

Is A VaR Shock Just Starting: Here Is The Checklist

It appears we have a disagreement between two JPMorgan analysts: while one, namely head quant Marco Kolanovic anticipates a significant deleveraging by quant and algo funds, JPM's fund flow guru is desperate to talk down the threat from a coordinated global selloff, and concludes that a VaR shock may not be imminent after all.

Chinese, Russian Navies Launch Largest Ever Joint Drill In South China Sea; Send Message To Washington

Perhaps it is not a coincidence that on the 15h anniversary of Sept11, China's navy announced earlier that China and Russia will hold eight days of naval drills in the South China Sea off southern China's Guangdong province starting from Monday.Among the numerous exercises, marines will participate in live-fire drills, island defense and landing operations in what will be the largest operation ever taken together by the two countries' navies, the statement said.

Time To Get Real, Part 2: "We Need Their Drugs"

On the current path, the world is experiencing the largest artificial asset allocation in modern history, one that is driven by a misguided interest rate regime that has lost its efficacy and is producing more harm than good. Yet the fear of withdrawal pain is keeping central bankers from doing the inevitable: Quit. The response is predictable: "I need the drugs!"

Negative Rates & The War On Cash, Part 4: "Financial Totalitarianism"

Governments and central banks would very much like to frighten people away from cash, but that only underlines its value under the current circumstances. Cash is king in a deflation. The powers-that-be know that, and would like the available cash to end up concentrated in their own hands rather than spread out to act as seed capital for a bottom-up recovery. Holding on to cash under one’s own control is still going to be a very important option for maintaining freedom of action in an uncertain future.

Why A 2% Move In Stocks Feels Like 20%

Everything is 10-times bigger now: a 2% move in stocks feels like 20%. And a 10bp move in bond yields feels like 100bps. “It’s the kind of thing that happened to Alice in Wonderland." But elevated asset prices come at the cost of systemic fragility. Because to suppress volatility requires feeding the beast with ever more stimulus.