With the Greek IMF payment just 48 hours away, and Europe having submitted its best and final offer to Greece in a battle of "deal proposals", today Greek PM Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Juncker to discuss the recently submitted reform proposals by the Greek premier. However, a Greek government spokesman says that Greek PM Tsipras will not meet Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem despite several reports suggesting that they would do so later today. Last night it was reported that the EU, ECB, IMF agreed on terms for a cash-for-reform plan to be presented to Greece. However, a senior EU official has said that they are concerned that the stringent measures of the proposal could be met with rejection by Greece.
During “normal times” – an economic growth phase accompanied or generated by rising systemic leverage – central banks have incentive to promote nominal growth and inflation, which make banking systems profitable and their free-spending political overseers happy. In such times, commercial banks have fiduciary responsibilities to shareholders to constantly increase their market values, which they do by expanding their balance sheets. Now that economies are highly leveraged, extinguishing debt would require banks to reduce the sizes of their loan books, which would shrink their market values. Thus, it seems economic policy makers never have incentive to promote debt extinguishment in the banking system, regardless of economic conditions or prospects.
What Wikileaks is doing would be utterly meaningless and unnecessary in any representative democracy. However, in a oligarchic corporatocracy such as the US, it is of critical importance.
If U.S. equities feel brittle, they should. Yes, central bank liquidity from Japan and Europe may well push global equity markets higher. But what we really need is a pullback – that classic 10% correction that flushes out weak hands, reestablishes the discipline of “Risk” in the “Risk-Return” equation, and shows capital markets how to do more than just follow central bank liquidity. So watch June’s price action in U.S. stocks very carefully, because this process needs to start now. The bull market that began in March 2009 is now an ancient bovine indeed. After all, better 10% now than 20% or more later in the year. The first is inconvenient. The second is unwelcomed.
In April we said that "sooner or later, in order to avoid liquidation and stave off severe disinflationary pressures, someone will have to call in "Helicopter Janet" and once the cash paradropping begins well, we'll see you in the Weimar Republic." Sure enough, the semi-official calls for helicopter drone cash drops have arrived.
Albert Edwards: Yen Collapse Will Lead To "New Round Of Currency Turmoil", Deflation In US And EurozoneSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/02/2015 10:55 -0400
One look at FX trading this morning and all one can see is surging volatility and, for lack of a better word, turmoil. Which is precisely what Albert Edwards said would happen in his latest note overnight (released just as the USDJPY briefly breached 125) in which he observes that the Yen has now fully broken its 30-year support and predicts that "a new round of currency turmoil" is beginning.
The current asset bubble depends on a number of perceptions that could easily be put to the test by unexpected developments. There is a widespread consensus on a number of issues. This includes the belief that the economy will strengthen, that the emergence of “price inflation” is practically impossible, that “QE” will always guarantee rising asset prices, and that central banks have everything under control. Now we learn that in addition to this, a surprisingly large number of traders has no experience beyond the ZIRP & QE era of recent years. Meanwhile, the market’s underpinnings in terms of liquidity exhibit numerous weaknesses.
Japan's Pension System Hacked; 1.25 Million Identification Numbers, Birth Dates, Addresses CompromisedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2015 20:30 -0400
"Japan's pension system has been hacked and more than a million cases of personal data leaked, authorities said on Monday, in an embarrassment that revived memories of a scandal that helped topple Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in his first term in office," Reuters reports. China to be blamed in short order.
"The real lesson from Europe is actually the opposite of what conservatives claim: Europe is an economic success, and that success shows that social democracy works."
At some point in the middle of the last century, economics of money shifted to economics of psychology. Abenomics is the perfect example of this faith-based policy. The Japanese economy, to any clear mind, took a huge turn for the worst under Abenomics yet its practitioners are still, somehow, given the final word on judging its performance, meaning that the mainstream still, somehow, subscribes to the religion.
Will global QE carry on forever...the next month may give out some clues..will it be Junemaggedon after we had May-hem??
June is off with a bang, and a very busy week in the macro economic calendar, both globally and in the US, which culminates with the latest "most important ever" payrolls report, one which will surely be closely watched by a Fed which may hike as soon as a few weeks from now (but probably won't).
Remember China's 6% crash last week? It is now a distant memory made even more remote thanks to the latest batch of ugly data out of China, coupled with hints of even more liquidity injections, which led to the latest surge in the Shcomp, an index that has put most pennystocks to shame. In Europe, the big story remains Greece, and as everyone expected, the doomed country and its creditors failed to make a deal on Sunday. This is after Greek Officials were said to have prepared a draft agreement, which was expected to be announced on Sunday. Not helping things, Greek PM Tsipras came out in fully defiant mode and accused bailout monitors of making “absurd” demands and seeking to impose “harsh punishment” on Athens. A bunch of final PMI number showed a modest improvement in the periphery at the expense of Germany whose deterioration is starting to be a concern.
Despite proclamations by Kuroda, Abe, and various other elected (and unelected) officials that the 'deflation mindset' is gone from Japan, it appears one segment of the population is keenly aware of the ongoing deflationary market for one staple item. Just as we warned was occurring in America, it appears the cost of blow-jobs has gone from just-plain-cheap to "well, why not?" As one intrepid reporter ventured into the Otsuka red-light district of Toshima Ward discovered, the fee for an oral session at a “pink salon” starts as low as 2,000 yen ($16!).
Here are Deutsche Bank's 10 themes and "summer issues" to keep an eye on as we leave May behind and enter June...