Japan

Don’t Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake

From here on out politics are only relevant at the extremes - major war, corruption scandal, martial law etc. Short of that, the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world has such institutional momentum that it really won’t matter whether Trump is picking on bankers and building his wall or Clinton is protecting Wall Street and raising taxes. Debt will keep soaring as it has under every president since Reagan and jobs will disappear as machines replace people, thus bringing the end of the current system inexorably closer.

Frontrunning: November 1

  • There is a bubble in articles about China's bubbles: Asset Bubbles Threaten China’s Economy (WSJ)
  • Hillary Clinton’s Wall Street Fundraising Benefited From Loophole In Federal Anti-Corruption Rule (IBT)
  • Clinton and Trump Prepare for Possibility of Election Overtime (BBG)
  • Trump Leads Clinton by 1 Point in New Poll as Enthusiasm Declines (ABC)
  • Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia (NYT)

Global Bond Selloff Resumes; Stocks Rise Following Strong Chinese Data

With October, the worst month for stocks since January, now in the history books S&P futures are eager to telegraph that the streak of five consecutive will end, with a modest gain of 0.3% in overnight trading, coupled with mixed global markets as the global bond selloff returned after strong Chinese economic data prompted concerns about rising global inflation.

Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy Unchanged; Warns Growth, Inflation Outlook Skewed To Downside

Expectations for the BoJ meeting tonight were for no change (and perhaps lowering its inflation and growth outlooks) and markets were braced for a whole lot of nothing with overnight USDJPY vol at its lowest of the year (for a BoJ meeting). Sure enough that is what they got. "No change" across anything policy but cuts to inflation expectations (as well as warnings of a downside skew for growth) left the yen slightly higher.

Hugh Hendry Interviewed On His "Eureka Moment" Trade Of The Day, QE, China, The Dollar And Much More

In a recent interview with Macro Voices, Hugh Hendry is asked about the trade he has on in his fund, to which the Scotsman says that his team recently had a “eureka moment” and figured out how to design a trade, which has a negative carry when viewed in simple terms, such that they preserve the asymmetric of risk/reward while converting it to a positive-carry trade by adding another “European sovereign component to the trade”.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week

The key economic releases this week include the personal income and spending report on Monday, ISM manufacturing on Tuesday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The November FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM.

Frontrunning: October 31

  • FBI in Internal Feud Over Clinton Probe (WSJ)
  • As Clinton struggles, Trump tries to raise doubts (Reuters)
  • Dollar shakes off Clinton FBI scare, global stocks stay spooked (Reuters)
  • Mark Carney stands ready to serve 8-year term at Bank of England (FT)
  • Clinton Team Questions FBI Director’s Motive (WSJ)
  • OPEC Splits Prevent Deal With Other Producers to Curb Supply (BBG)

Previewing This Week's Most Interesting Central Bank Decision (No, Not The Fed)

With Yellen paralyzed with fear and certain to change nothing just 6 days before the election, a far more interesting central bank meeting due later this week, is that of the BOJ which addresses the market on November 1, and which over the past few months has set the global bond market on edge with its attempts to steepen the JGB yield curve which in turn led to the VaR-shocked early September stock selloff,

The Vexed Question Of The Dollar

There is little doubt that the rapid expansion of both dollar-denominated debt and monetary quantities since the financial crisis will lead us into a currency crisis. We just don’t know when, and the dollar is not alone. While the monetary role of gold in the future has yet to be determined by China, and it will be China or the markets that make the decision, for the moment it can be regarded as the ultimate insurance against global currency failure.

Weekend Reading: Stuck In The Middle - Again

Just as was witnessed following “The Great Depression,” the bursting of the next asset bubble will likely once again drive participants away from the market for an entire generation, or longer. The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well.