Japan

Futures Fall On Rising Trump Uncertainty; Europe Stocks Rise As Euro-Area Inflation Surges

European bonds fell and stocks rose led by banks and retailers as surging inflation data prompted investors to switch into reflationary assets even as speculation about ECB tapering has returned. Asian stocks and US equity futures declined. The Yen and gold advanced after Trump’s firing of the U.S. acting attorney general added to concern over the unpredictability of decisions in the new administration.

Key Events In The Coming "Big Week" For The US

Markets will again zero in on the U.S. this week, and not just because of Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve meeting and nonfarm payrolls may set a clear direction for dollar and yields for the next few months. Other key releases include ISM, ADP, housing data, personal income & spending, vehicle sales and core PCE.

Global Stocks, Futures Slide On US Protectionism Worries Following Trump Travel Chaos

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all drop after traders were left with a sour taste from the potential fallout of Donald Trump’s order halting some immigration and ahead of central bank decisions from the U.S. and Japan.  Markets in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam are all shut due to the Lunar New Year public holiday.

How Long Can China's Debt Continue To Grow Before A Systemic Crisis Strikes?

How long can China's debt continue to grow before a Minsky moment or systemic debt crisis?  As the government continues to rely on credit-fuelled investment to offset downward pressures within the domestic economy and from a subdued global environment China's debt/GDP ratio is set to rise further. But how much higher can it rise? Here is UBS' attempt to answer the $64 trillion question.

The Full Breakdown Of How Trump Tax Policies Will Impact S&P Earnings

Some form of corporate tax reform under Trump seems likely likely as it is a stated priority of President Trump and has widespread Congressional support. In the following analysis, BofA analyzes the four components that could have big equity implications on S&P500 earnings over the coming years.

What's Behind The Collapse In Global Exports?

Global export of goods (priced in US dollars) has collapsed in Japan, the EU, and emerging markets, since their recovery highs following the great recession. The US is the best of the lot, but US exports of goods are down substantially as well. What’s behind the move? Is it protectionism? Currency related?

War Gaming - Part 1: Nukes & Terrorism

We will examine American hegemony from a foreign nation’s perspective. In other words, if a nation wanted to attack the U.S. to either replace the U.S. as global superpower or to create conditions that would allow it to act freely to establish regional hegemony, how would this be accomplished?

US Stocks Are Now The Most Over-Priced Since The 2000 Crash

The single most important characteristic of any investment is the price when you buy it. It doesn’t matter how spectacular your investment is. If you overpay for it, you have no margin of safety. And as the market affirmed yesterday, US stock prices can be expressed in a single word: expensive.

"Everyone's A Genius"

At market tops, it is common to see what I call the ‘high-five effect’ - that is, investors giving high-fives to each other because they are making so much paper money. It is happening now. I am also suspicious when amateurs come out of the woodwork to insult other investors.