JC Penney

Those hoping for a slew of negative news to push stocks much higher today will be disappointed in this largely catalyst-free day. So far today we have gotten only the ECB's weekly 3y LTRO announcement whereby seven banks will repay a total of €1.1 billion from both LTRO issues, as repayments slow to a trickle because the last thing the ECB, which was rumored to be inquiring banks if they can handle negative deposit rates earlier in the session, needs is even more balance sheet contraction. The biggest economic European economic data point was the EU construction output which contracted for a fifth consecutive month, dropping -1.7% compared to -0.3% previously, and tumbled 7.9% from a year before.  Elsewhere, Spain announced trade data for March, which printed at yet another surplus of €0.63 billion, prompted not so much by soaring exports which rose a tiny 2% from a year ago to €20.3 billion but due to a collapse in imports of 15% to €19.7 billion - a further sign that the Spanish economy is truly contracting even if the ultimate accounting entry will be GDP positive. More importantly for Spain, the country reported a March bad loan ratio - which has been persistently underreproted - at 10.5% up from 10.4% in February. We will have more to say on why this is the latest and greatest ticking timebomb for the Eurozone shortly.

• Cyprus leader invites family firm probe (FT)
• How the Fed fueled an explosion in subprime auto loans (Reuters)
• Wal-Mart Customers Complain Bare Shelves Are Widespread (BBG)
• JC Penney CEO gets no bonus, stock award after dismal year (Reuters)
• New Bird Flu Virus Kills 2 in China, Sparking WHO Probe (BBG)
• Algorithms Play Matchmaker to Fight 7.7% U.S. Unemployment (BBG)
• Fed hawk Lacker and dove Evans face off over inflation (Reuters)
• Infamous silver market "cornerer" WH Hunt Becomes Billionaire on Bakken Oil After Bankruptcy (BBG)
• Japan Auto Sales Fall on Subsidy End as Korea Extends Drop (BBG)
• Black Hawks Near North Korea Show Risk in U.S. Command Shift (BBG)
• SEC Embraces Social Media (WSJ)
• Tesla Touts ‘True Out of Pocket’ Financing for Model S (BBG)
• U.K. Banks Try to Dodge Bonus Caps by Defining Risk-Taker (BBG)

It is clear now that we must have been wrong about the economy. No more proof is needed than the fact the Dow has gone up 1,500 points. Everyone knows the stock market reflects the true health of the nation – multi-millionaire Jim Cramer and his millionaire CNBC talking head cohorts tell us so. Ignore the fact that the bottom 80% only own 5% of the financial assets in this country and are not benefitted by the stock market in any way. It is time to open your eyes and arise from your stupor. Observe what is happening around you. Look closely. Does the storyline match what you see in your ever day reality? It is them versus us. Whether you call them the invisible government, ruling class, financial overlords, oligarchs, the powers that be, ruling elite, or owners; there are powerful wealthy men who call the shots in this global criminal enterprise. No amount of propaganda can cover up the physical, economic, social, and psychological descent afflicting our world. There’s a bad moon rising and trouble is on the way.

“For many young Greeks, the election in Italy now provides a model. If the population of the third-largest economy in the euro zone so openly opposes the austerity measures, then the exit of individual countries from the euro zone is no longer taboo.” Der Spiegel 

Italy will be holding another election, which puts the country in a dead calm until there is a functioning government. The key in Italy is the outsider and comedian Beppe Grillo whose party has put the government in dysfunction and in parallel has created a monster of an uprising against corruption within both political parties. The movement itself is larger than Grillo and may be the well-springs of copycat movements throughout southern Europe that threatens the euro and the establishment. It’s a disruptive a movement and would be like a Ron Paul to U.S. political parties. No matter the outcome, the bottom line is Italy will remain a drag on eurozone equity prices until there is a resolution.

• Grillo kills move to break Italy deadlock (FT)
• Abe nominates Kuroda to run BoJ (FT)
• More WMT bad news: Wal-Mart Chief Administrative Officer Mars to Leave: WSJ (BBG)
• Japan's Abe: Islands Are Indisputably Ours (WSJ) - Except for China of course
• Low-key departure as pope steps down, to enter the final phase of his life "hidden from the world" (Reuters)
• Cuts unlikely to deliver promised budget savings (Reuters)
• European Union caps bankers’ bonuses (FT)
• White House, Republicans dig in ahead of budget talks (Reuters)
• Jockeying Stalls Deal on Cuts (WSJ)
• Argentina Says It Won’t Voluntarily Comply With Bond Ruling (BBG)
• Italian president says forming new government cannot be rushed (Reuters) - or happen at all
• Central Banks Spewing Cash Must Plan Exit Timing, Rohde Says (BBG)
• China Regional Targets Cut in Sign Debt Concerns Heeded (BBG)
• RBA Says Up to 34 Central Banks Holding Australian Dollars (BBG)

All Capitalist Systems Have Some Inequality.  We Don’t Want To Prevent All Inequality … Just Economy-Wrecking Levels

Did Carl Icahn just take his feud with Bill Ackman to the next level? He very well might have, and the stakes have never been higher...

In the same way as any and every risk-asset in the world, the price of yield-providing CMBS (commercial mortgage backed securities) have risen to post-crisis highs in the last few months. These are some of the epicentric deals from the crisis that now trade close to par once again. However, the last month or so has not seen CMBS prices push higher with stocks and it appears, as the FT notes, that the reason is becoming clear in the post-holiday-shopping period. CMBS cash-flow streams are set to drop considerably as up to 15 per cent of the country’s suburban retail centres forecast to close over the next five years in the face of online competition. Retail is regarded as an especially risky component of CMBS as a mall can go downhill if an important tenant shuts its store because other tenants are usually able to renegotiate their leases if a traffic-driving anchor tenant leaves. That can have severe consequences for CMBS exposed to the mortgage on the property.

Those who went long Boeing in the last few days on hopes the "smoking battery" issue had been resolved, especially following Ray LaHood comment's he would fly the Dreamliner, which is rapidly becoming the Nightmareliner for Boeing, anytime anywhere, are about to be grounded, as is the entire 787 fleet of All Nippon Airlines and Japan Airlines following yet another incident forcing an emergency Dreamliner landing. This happened after ANA "alarms indicated smoke in the forward area of the plane, which houses batteries and other equipment, the airline said, and there was a "burning-like smell" in the cockpit and parts of the cabin. The plane landed at Takamatsu airport in western Japan, where the 129 passengers were evacuated using the plane's emergency chutes. The plane also carried eight crew members. ANA said that the exact cause was still undetermined. The event was designated as a "serious incident" by Japan's transport ministry, setting off an immediate investigation by the Japan Transport Safety Board, which dispatched a team to the scene." The result - a 4% drop in the stock so far premarket, and if any more airlines are to ground their fleet the implications for the backlog could be devastating, it will only get far worse for both the company and the Dow Jones average, of which it is part.

Despite the fact that myself and everyone else acting like they know what lays ahead are proven wrong time and time again, we continue to make predictions about the future. It makes us feel like we have some control, when we don’t. The world is too complex, too big, too corrupt, too lost in theories and delusions, and too dependent upon too many leaders with too few brains to be able to predict what will happen next. This is the time of year when all the “experts” will be making their 2013 predictions - but few will address where they were wrong in previous predictions. I’m more interested in why I was wrong. It seems I always underestimate the ability of sociopathic central bankers and their willingness to destroy the lives of hundreds of millions to benefit their oligarch masters. I always underestimate the rampant corruption that permeates Washington DC and the executive suites in mega-corporations across the land. And I always overestimate the intelligence, civic mindedness, and ability to understand math of the ignorant masses that pass for citizens in this country. It seems that issuing trillions of new debt to pay off trillions of bad debt, government sanctioned accounting fraud, mainstream media propaganda, government data manipulation and a populace blinded by mass delusion can stave off the inevitable consequences of an unsustainable economic system. Will 2013 be the year it all collapses in a flaming heap of rubble? I don’t know. Maybe you should ask an “expert”.

• Greek Aid Payment Call Won’t Be Made Next Week, EU Official (Bloomberg)
• Eurozone faces brinkmanship on Greece (FT)
• Pressure Rises on Fiscal Crisis (WSJ)
• The JC Penney massacre continues (BBG) - In other news, any minute now Bill Ackman will get that 15x return...
• SEC left computers vulnerable to cyber attacks (Reuters) cue "back door Trojan" jokes
• Former Goldman trader accused of fraud (FT)
• Elizabeth Warren's Inadvertent Best Friends: Wall Street and Republicans (BusinessWeek)
• Zurbruegg Says Managing SNB Currency Reserves Is Major Challenge (BBG)
• Obama ally leads push on fiscal cliff (FT)
• Britain threatens to block banking union (FT)
• PBOC’s Zhou Says China’s Economy Improving as Data Due (Bloomberg)
• China slaps duties on steel tube imports (FT)
• Obama to Make Statement on Economic Growth, Cutting Deficit (Bloomberg)

From the inbox: "Tilson splitting from Tongue, unwinding T2 Partners, new fund at KASE Capital" We very much hope our tipster is wrong: after all how will CNBC Fast Money viewers know to buy JCP at $27, and $26, and $25, and $24, and all the way down to $19 where it is today. Also who could have possibly foreseen the end of a mega long-biased end of a $345 Million fund which had over $125 million in long derivative equivalents? Oh wait...

Remember when Whitney Tilson praised every drop in the price of JC Penney stock as a gift from heaven, give or take? Well the gods really are generous to the Sharpe ratio 0.000 asset manager of over a hundred million in stock call equivalents, all of which are now deeply underwater. Because if Tilson liked JCP at $27 one short month ago, he must absolutely love it at $21 where it is today after collapsing over 10% overnight. After yesterday's announcement of the departure of the company's president, the stock is getting blowtorched and is now down to 2 year lows. Someone else who better be doubling down is retail "genius" Bill Ackman who is down $100 million on the stock today alone, and will need to seriously defend his these or, well, else. Who else is getting pulverized? See below.

If anyone is wondering why the darling stock of Bill Ackman and Whitney Tilson, for whom every collapse of JCP is a buying gift from god, namely JCPenney, is plunging after hours, it is because the company's president, Michael Francis, hired October 4, 2011, has just quit. To wit: "J. C. Penney Company, Inc. ("jcpenney") (JCP) today announced that Michael Francis will be leaving the Company, effective today. Chief Executive Officer Ron Johnson will assume direct responsibility and oversight of the company's marketing and merchandising functions." And to think that just 9 months ago the company CEO Ron Johnson announced, that "I am thrilled to welcome Michael to our team... He is an extremely talented executive with the vision and courage to re-imagine the department store experience. His ability to innovate and deep understanding of the industry will be invaluable as we set out to transform J.C. Penney into America's favorite store." And while his ability to do anything else appears to have been a dud, his ability to read the fine print in his contract, especially where it talks about his perks, was second to none. Because despite leaving just 9 months after his hiring, Francis is entitled to collect a whopping $9 million in pro-rated signing bonus (alongside $100,000/month in salary): all in all - a tidy package of $10 million for shooting the breeze while observing a sinking retail ship. Not bad for a company whose stock has just plunged to September 2010 levels.

Here in the U.S., I think that The Bernank’s plan was to pretend they didn’t need to print more money, get commodity prices down and then hope that the economy would respond favorably to that development.  This wouldn’t have negated the need for more printing; however, it would have bought time and allowed for a potentially lesser degree of action.  Instead, what has happened is that the global ponzi is completely and totally incapable of holding itself together without consistent and increasingly large infusions of Central Bank money.  The debt burden is too large, the mal-investments too pervasive, the corruption too systemic.  The whole house of cards that is the global economy will vanish into dust rather quickly without more and more printing.  So what do you think they are going to do? If I am correct, and the U.S. economy itself is now in the early stages of what will probably turn into a serious economic slowdown, then it will not be easily stopped with incremental Central Bank policies.  The fact that they have waited this long and the fact that the global economy is in the midst of a serious slowdown tells me one thing.  They are way behind the curve and by the time they realize this it will be too late to stem the momentum.  That said, I do expect them to respond and the fact that things will have gotten much worse than they expected will mean a major response.  I’m not talking operation twist part deux.  I mean a serious print.  Potentially the BIG ONE.