World oil production is about 90 million barrels a day, representing a cash flow of about nine billion dollars a day which comes down to three trillion dollars a year. With the oil price 40 to 50% lower, this flow is also cut by 40 to 50%. This amounts to 10% US GDP. Compare it with the 0.5% growth we are now missing in China, we prefer to keep our eyes on the oil price. These extreme moves can not be without consequence.
- China stocks slump 6 percent on fears of further yuan depreciation (Reuters)
- U.S. Lacks Ammo for Next Economic Crisis (Hilsenrath)
- Emerging Markets Extend Slide as Commodities Fall; Pound Jumps (BBG)
- China yuan to move both ways, more 'adjustments' unlikely: central bank economist (Reuters)
- Playing Chinese markets is as simple as 'follow the leader' (Reuters)
- PBOC Injection Shows China Worries About Outflows (WSJ)
- Russia Fails to Soothe Oil Concerns as Citi Joins Ruble Bears (BBG)
Just two years after Toy'R'Us attempted (and failed) to IPO, Bloomberg reports that insurance companies are cutting back on their coverage of the firm's suppliers. Without this 'insurance', which protects suppliers in case a retailer fails to pay them for merchandise - as in the event of a bankruptcy - the risks of shipping to the retail chain soar. Toys'R'Us bonds have collapsed to lows as investors recognize that credit insurers sometimes cancel existing policies if a company’s performance declines precipitously enough to place its ability to keep operating in doubt. That occurred in the months before bankruptcy filings at RadioShack, Borders, and Circuit City.
- Greece Capitulates to Creditors’ Demands to Cling to Euro (BBG)
- Euro zone strikes deal with Greece after all-night struggle (Reuters)
- Tsipras Moves From Predator to Prey at Euro 'Torture' Summit (BBG)
- Euro’s Greek Boost Evaporates as Analysts Predict Losses to Come (BBG)
- Greek Fury Meets Resignation at Demands for Concessions (BBG)
- Poland Blames ‘Carefree’ Greek Populists for Tough EU Aid Deal (BBG)
- Europeans Press for Iran Nuclear Deal on Monday (WSJ)
- Iran nuclear talks: Deal 'near completion' (BBC)
- In speech, Clinton to put wages at heart of economic policy (Reuters)
- China’s Incendiary Market Is Fanned by Borrowers and Manipulation (NYT)
"This is what happens when you let money run riot and you allow industries to police themselves. This is what happens when the rich and powerful are endlessly granted special privileges, celebrated and permitted or even encouraged to place themselves above the law. And this is what happens when ordinary people feel bored by and excluded from politics, largely because their voices matter so little..."
- Pope urges Putin to make 'sincere, great effort' for Ukraine peace (Reuters)
- Merkel Tells Tsipras It’s Time to Back Talk With Policy Action (BBG)
- 'Greek tragedy' needs happy ending now: EU's Moscovici (Reuters)
- Vulture Funds Circle Greece Targeting Europe’s Best Trading Bet (BBG)
- Germany against third aid program for Greece under any circumstances, says daily (Reuters)
- Biggest OPEC Members Pump Record Oil With Rally in Jeopardy (BBG)
- Greek ruling reversing pension cuts will cost state 1 to 1.5 bln euros (Kathimerini)
- China’s Former Security Chief Zhou Yongkang Sentenced to Life in Prison (WSJ)
- MSCI backs itself into corner on China share inclusion (Reuters)
From Greek lobbyists to Silicon Valley VCs and from Goldman BSDs to FT reporters, The Bilderberg Group will meet later this week in Tirol to discuss what happens next to the rest of the world... here are the participants...
- No change in Greek debt talks after another day of spin (Reuters)
- G-7 Weighs In on Greece as Government Told to Be Serious (BBG)
- FIFA Faces Mounting Pressure From Sponsors as Visa Threatens to End Deal (WSJ)
- U.S. hopes Chinese island-building will spur Asian response (Reuters)
- Japan Inc.’s $104 Billion Investor Payout Set to Surge (BBG)
- Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine (Reuters)
- China Says Its Most-Wanted Fugitive Is in U.S. Custody (BBG)
It's Official: Avago Buys Broadcom In $37 Billion Deal, Thousands In Employee Layoff "Synergies" ImminentSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/28/2015 07:11 -0400
As the WSJ reported yesterday when it sent the semiconductor space soaring, moments ago Avago (21x EV/EBITDA) confirmed it would buy Broadcom (19x EV/EBITDA) for $37 billion. The reason for the deal: as the WSJ noted yesterday, "growth has been hard to come by for Broadcom, a 24-year-old company that makes communications chips for tablets and smartphones, and supplies the Internet links for cable-television and telecommunications devices." Or, in other words, only a delusional, yield-chasing bond holder would be willing to fund (with other people's money) the 18.9x Broadcom EV/EBITDA take out price and just like in the oil and E&P space, when organic growth dries out, there is always zero cost debt to extend the dream a little longer.
The leniency shown former CIA Director (and retired General) David Petraeus by the Justice Department in sparing him prison time for the serious crimes that he has committed puts him in the same preferential, immune-from-incarceration category as those running the financial institutions of Wall Street, where, incidentally, Petraeus now makes millions. By contrast, “lesser” folks – and particularly the brave men and women who disclose government crimes – get to serve time, even decades, in jail. Behold, the virtual immunity enjoyed by the well connected.
Energy companies “biding their time in the hopes they don’t have to face the music.”
Financial engineering is one of the worst ills perpetuated by the Fed’s regime of cheap debt and money market subsidies for speculation. And these deformations are turbo-charged by the tax code which creates a powerful bias toward loading capital structures with tax deductible debt, and to delivering returns as lightly taxed capital gains rather than ordinary income. In fact, stock buybacks and LBOs are the bastard offspring of the IRS and Federal Reserve.
Back in early 2007, just as the first cracks of the bursting housing and credit bubble were becoming visible, one of the primary harbingers of impending doom was banks slowly but surely yanking availability (aka dry powder) under secured revolving credit facilities to companies across America. This, in effect, was the first snowflake in what would ultimately become the lack of liquidity avalanche that swept away AIG and unleashed the biggest bailout of capitalism in history. Back then, analysts had a pet name for banks calling CFOs and telling them "so sorry, but your secured credit availability has been cut by 50%, 75% or worse" - revolver raids. Well, the infamous revolver raids are back.
- Germans Tired of Greek Demands Want Country to Exit Euro (BBG)
- Weak euro powers European stocks to new highs (Reuters)
- Siemens Cheers Euro Slump as Emerson Eases Dollar’s Sting (BBG)
- A Police Gadget Tracks Phones? Shhh! It’s Secret (NYT)
- If Economists Were Right, You Would Have a Raise by Now (BBG)
- iWatch: who’s going to pay $17K for a device that will be obsolete in two years? (Barrons)
- Ferguson Suspect Said to Claim He Wasn’t Firing at Police (BBG)
- Why Bankers Are Leaving Finance for No-Salary Tech Jobs (BBG)
- Greece Should Not Give In to Germany’s Bullying (FP)
- Greece Can Pay Its Debts in Full, but It Won’t (WSJ)
- Early Friday humor: Euro Region Economy Strengthens Amid Wrangling on Greece (BBG)
- Euro zone may need extra summit to clinch Greek deal (Reuters)
- Oil-Drop Pain Spreads to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Behemoth (WSJ)
- Yellen Confronts Economists’ Ignorance (BBG) - where does one even start with this one
- ECB Plans to Push Greek Banks to Shed State Debt If Talks Fail (BBG)