• Vitaliy Katsenelson
    10/03/2015 - 18:26
    Any money manager, whether he is managing separate accounts or a mutual fund, will go through stretches where he looks smarter or dumber than he really is, though his IQ hasn’t actually changed.


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Frontrunning: September 28

  • Headline winner: "Read Beyond Massive Job-Cuts Headlines: Labor Market Is Fine" (BBG)
  • And speaking of lies: The More Yellen Talks Up Inflation, the Less Traders Believe Her (BBG)
  • How Some Investors Get Special Access to Companies (WSJ)
  • Victorious Catalan separatists claim mandate to break with Spain (Reuters)
  • Russia seizes initiative in Syria (Reuters)
  • Former VW boss Winterkorn investigated for fraud (Reuters)
  • Investors Pull Back From Junk Bonds (WSJ)
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Forget The New World Order, Here's Who Really Runs The World

The phrase New World Order is largely derided as a sophomoric conspiracy theory entertained by minds that lack the sophistication necessary to understand the nuances of geopolitics. But it turns out the core idea — one of deep and overarching collusion between Wall Street and government with a globalist agenda — is operational in what a number of insiders call the “Deep State.”

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David Petraeus, "Treasury Analyst": Please Don't Quit Your Day Job

Somehow everything in the following statement from David Petraeus is wrong: "There is no shortage of customers for the purchase of U.S. Treasuries," said Petraeus.... "Given the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates at some point in the months ahead, I suspect there will continue to be very keen interest in U.S. Treasuries." 

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Deep State America

Ordinary Americans frequently ask why politicians and government officials appear to be so obtuse, rarely recognizing what is actually occurring in the country. That is partly due to the fact that the political class lives in a bubble of its own creation, but it might also be because many of America’s leaders actually accept that there is an unelected, unappointed, and unaccountable presence within the system that actually manages what is taking place behind the scenes. That would be the American deep state. America’s deep state is completely corrupt: it exists to sell out the public interest, and includes both major political parties as well as government officials.

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Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil

World oil production is about 90 million barrels a day, representing a cash flow of about nine billion dollars a day which comes down to three trillion dollars a year. With the oil price 40 to 50% lower, this flow is also cut by 40 to 50%. This amounts to 10% US GDP. Compare it with the 0.5% growth we are now missing in China, we prefer to keep our eyes on the oil price. These extreme moves can not be without consequence.

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Frontrunning: August 18

  • China stocks slump 6 percent on fears of further yuan depreciation (Reuters)
  • U.S. Lacks Ammo for Next Economic Crisis (Hilsenrath)
  • Emerging Markets Extend Slide as Commodities Fall; Pound Jumps (BBG)
  • China yuan to move both ways, more 'adjustments' unlikely: central bank economist (Reuters)
  • Playing Chinese markets is as simple as 'follow the leader' (Reuters)
  • PBOC Injection Shows China Worries About Outflows (WSJ)
  • Russia Fails to Soothe Oil Concerns as Citi Joins Ruble Bears (BBG)
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Toys'R'Us Bonds Crash As Suppliers Set To Tighten Credit Lines

Just two years after Toy'R'Us attempted (and failed) to IPO, Bloomberg reports that insurance companies are cutting back on their coverage of the firm's suppliers. Without this 'insurance', which protects suppliers in case a retailer fails to pay them for merchandise - as in the event of a bankruptcy - the risks of shipping to the retail chain soar. Toys'R'Us bonds have collapsed to lows as investors recognize that credit insurers sometimes cancel existing policies if a company’s performance declines precipitously enough to place its ability to keep operating in doubt. That occurred in the months before bankruptcy filings at RadioShack, Borders, and Circuit City.

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Frontrunning: July 13

  • Greece Capitulates to Creditors’ Demands to Cling to Euro (BBG)
  • Euro zone strikes deal with Greece after all-night struggle (Reuters)
  • Tsipras Moves From Predator to Prey at Euro 'Torture' Summit (BBG)
  • Euro’s Greek Boost Evaporates as Analysts Predict Losses to Come (BBG)
  • Greek Fury Meets Resignation at Demands for Concessions (BBG)
  • Poland Blames ‘Carefree’ Greek Populists for Tough EU Aid Deal (BBG)
  • Europeans Press for Iran Nuclear Deal on Monday (WSJ)
  • Iran nuclear talks: Deal 'near completion' (BBC)
  • In speech, Clinton to put wages at heart of economic policy (Reuters)
  • China’s Incendiary Market Is Fanned by Borrowers and Manipulation (NYT)
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Bilderberg 2015 – Where Criminals Mingle With Politicians

"This is what happens when you let money run riot and you allow industries to police themselves. This is what happens when the rich and powerful are endlessly granted special privileges, celebrated and permitted or even encouraged to place themselves above the law. And this is what happens when ordinary people feel bored by and excluded from politics, largely because their voices matter so little..."

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Frontrunning: June 11

  • Pope urges Putin to make 'sincere, great effort' for Ukraine peace (Reuters)
  • Merkel Tells Tsipras It’s Time to Back Talk With Policy Action (BBG)
  • 'Greek tragedy' needs happy ending now: EU's Moscovici (Reuters)
  • Vulture Funds Circle Greece Targeting Europe’s Best Trading Bet (BBG)
  • Germany against third aid program for Greece under any circumstances, says daily (Reuters)
  • Biggest OPEC Members Pump Record Oil With Rally in Jeopardy (BBG)
  • Greek ruling reversing pension cuts will cost state 1 to 1.5 bln euros (Kathimerini)
  • China’s Former Security Chief Zhou Yongkang Sentenced to Life in Prison (WSJ)
  • MSCI backs itself into corner on China share inclusion (Reuters)
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Meet The Participants Of This Year's Bilderberg Conference

From Greek lobbyists to Silicon Valley VCs and from Goldman BSDs to FT reporters, The Bilderberg Group will meet later this week in Tirol to discuss what happens next to the rest of the world... here are the participants...

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Frontrunning: May 28

  • No change in Greek debt talks after another day of spin (Reuters)
  • G-7 Weighs In on Greece as Government Told to Be Serious (BBG)
  • FIFA Faces Mounting Pressure From Sponsors as Visa Threatens to End Deal (WSJ)
  • U.S. hopes Chinese island-building will spur Asian response (Reuters)
  • Japan Inc.’s $104 Billion Investor Payout Set to Surge (BBG)
  • Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine (Reuters)
  • China Says Its Most-Wanted Fugitive Is in U.S. Custody (BBG)
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It's Official: Avago Buys Broadcom In $37 Billion Deal, Thousands In Employee Layoff "Synergies" Imminent

As the WSJ reported yesterday when it sent the semiconductor space soaring, moments ago Avago (21x EV/EBITDA) confirmed it would buy Broadcom (19x EV/EBITDA) for $37 billion.  The reason for the deal: as the WSJ noted yesterday, "growth has been hard to come by for Broadcom, a 24-year-old company that makes communications chips for tablets and smartphones, and supplies the Internet links for cable-television and telecommunications devices." Or, in other words, only a delusional, yield-chasing bond holder would be willing to fund (with other people's money) the 18.9x Broadcom EV/EBITDA take out price and just like in the oil and E&P space, when organic growth dries out, there is always zero cost debt to extend the dream a little longer.

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The Virtual Immunity Of The Well-Connected: Gen. Petraeus Edition

The leniency shown former CIA Director (and retired General) David Petraeus by the Justice Department in sparing him prison time for the serious crimes that he has committed puts him in the same preferential, immune-from-incarceration category as those running the financial institutions of Wall Street, where, incidentally, Petraeus now makes millions. By contrast, “lesser” folks – and particularly the brave men and women who disclose government crimes – get to serve time, even decades, in jail. Behold, the virtual immunity enjoyed by the well connected.

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