KKR

• ECB to decide on bond-buying plan to revive euro zone (Reuters)
• Draghi Is Pushing Boundaries of Euro Region with QE Program (BBG)
• Investors Wonder Whether ECB Will Do Enough (WSJ)
• Treasuries Drop With Bunds Before ECB; U.S. Futures Rise (BBG)
• European shares hit seven-year high (Reuters)
• At least eight civilians killed in shelling of Ukrainian trolleybus (Reuters), both sides blame each other
• OPEC Will Blink First in Battle With Shale Drillers, Poll Shows (BBG)
• China Injects $8 Billion Into Banking System (WSJ)
• New York says Barclays not cooperating in 'dark pool' probe (Reuters)

• The year of dollar danger for the world (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)
• Draghi Says ECB Prepares Action as Deflation Risk Non-Negligible (BBG)
• Obama Pivots to Lawmakers: New Plan to Advance Policy Goals by Working With Congress Draws Skeptics (WSJ)
• Affordable Care Act Creates a Trickier Tax Season (WSJ)
• Oil pares early gains, trades near $57 as supply glut prevails (Reuters)
• Iran says Saudi Arabia should move to curb oil price fall (Reuters)
• Pimco Fund Trails Peers in 2014 After Missing Rally (BBG)
• Piketty rejects Légion d’Honneur award (FT)
• UK manufacturing activity hits three-month low (BBC)

We live in a new world, and the Saudis are either the only or the first ones to understand that. Because they are so early to notice, and adapt, I would expect them to come out relatively well. But I would fear for many of the others. And that includes a real fear of pretty extreme reactions, and violence, in quite a few oil-producing nations that have kept a lid on their potential domestic unrest to date. It would also include a lot of ugliness in the US shale patch, with a great loss of jobs (something it will have in common with North Sea oil, among others), but perhaps even more with profound mayhem for many investors in US energy. And then we’re right back to your pension plans.

No respite for the American oil patch and its investors.

• Oil slide hits European stocks, safe-haven assets sought (Reuters)
• IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast for 4th Time in Five Months (BBG)
• Cue constant pro-Abe propaganda out of Japan: Japan’s Secrecy Law Takes Effect as Abe Seeks Fair Vote Coverage (BBG)
• As if it has a choice: Japan’s GPIF Bets on Abenomics-Driven Recovery (WSJ)
• Heather Capital: How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared (WSJ)
• Senate Panel Votes to Authorize U.S. War on Islamic State (BBG)
• Japan’s 28 IPOs in 11 Days Give Abe a Lift as Startups Boom (BBG)
• U.S. authorities face new fallout from insider trading ruling (Reuters)
• Greek Stock Rout Means ASE Is 2014 Worst After Russia (BBG)

• Thanks Fed: Meet the high schooler who made $300K trading penny stocks under his desk (Verge)
• Protesters block NY streets after officer cleared in chokehold death (Reuters)
• U.S. Plans Probe of New York Police Chokehold Death (BBG)
• Sharpton Leads Civil-Rights Meeting on Chokehold Decision (BBG)
• Staten Island on Edge Over Grand Jury Decision In Death of Eric Garner (WSJ)
• Draghi Tests Speed Limit as ECB Awaits Stimulus Evidence (BBG)
• European Stocks Approach Seven-Year High Before Draghi Statement (BBG)
• Britain targets multinationals that try to dodge taxes (Reuters)
• Oil Trains Hide in Plain Sight (WSJ)

We should be glad the price of oil has fallen the way it has (losing another 6% today as we write this). Not because it makes the gas in our cars a bit cheaper, that’s nothing compared to the other service the price slump provides. That is, it allows us to see how the economy is really doing, without the multilayered veil of propaganda, spin, fixed data and bailouts and handouts for the banking system.

• Yellen Inherits Greenspan’s Conundrum as Long Rates Sink (BBG)
• West African Mining Projects Take Hit From Ebola Crisis (WSJ)
• Saudi oil policy uncertainty unleashes the conspiracy theorists (Reuters)
• Senate Rejection of Keystone XL Measure Sets Up 2015 Showdown (BBG)
• Ferguson, Missouri, remains on edge ahead of grand jury report (Reuters)
• Putin Said to Stun Advisers by Backing Corruption Crackdown (BBG)
• Italian ‘Invasion’ Has Swiss Fuming as Immigration Vote Looms (BBG)
• Apple and Others Encrypt Phones, Fueling Government Standoff (WSJ)

• The $9 Billion Witness: Meet JPMorgan Chase's Worst Nightmare (Matt Taibbi)
• Explains the midterm results: Optimism precedes job data (Reuters)
• EU Dream Ebbs Amid Weak Growth, Putin's Jets, 25 Years After Wall Came Down (BBG)
• SEC Probing Trading Activity at Apple Supplier GT Advanced (WSJ)
• Boehner touts bills to repeal Obamacare, build Keystone (Reuters)
• China Gold Buying Means Price Floor to Standard Chartered (BBG)
• High-Speed Ad Traders Profit by Arbitraging Your Eyeballs (BBG)
• Central Banks Can’t Be ‘Only Game in Town’ Boosting Economies (BBG) - less talking, more getting to work

• Doctor with Ebola in New York hospital after return from Guinea (Reuters)
• Ebola Puts Spotlight on Bellevue, Key NYC Trauma Center (WSJ)
• Uber Driver Transported Ebola-Positive Doctor in New York (BBG)
• GOP Gains in Key Senate Races as Gender Gap Narrows (WSJ)
• ECB Tries for Third Time Lucky in European Stress Tests (BBG)
• Security tight in Canada as police probe Parliament gunman's ties (Reuters)
• Why Madrid's poor fear Goldman Sachs and Blackstone (Reuters)
• Fed’s $4 Trillion Holdings Keep Boosting Growth Beyond End of QE (BBG)

• Canada PM vows crackdown after capital shocked by fatal attacks (Reuters)
• Canada Gunman Was Convert to Islam With Criminal Record (BBG)
• Some U.S. hospitals weigh withholding care to Ebola patients (Reuters)
• But... Great rotation... Bond funds stock up on Treasuries in prep for market shock (Reuters)
• Saudis at War With Islamic State Confront Echo of Kingdom’s Past (BBG)
• EU’s Top Banker Warns of Rule Fixation ‘Going Beyond Reason (BBG)
• U.S.-led air strikes killed 521 fighters, 32 civilians in Syria (Reuters)
• Growing Kurdish Unity Helps West, Worries Turkey (WSJ)
• Don’t Be Distracted by the Pass Rate in ECB’s Bank Exams (BBG)
• Hedge Funds Add to Venture-Capital Bounty (WSJ)
• Speed-of-Light Trading Grows in Europe With McKay Network (BBG)

Theories abound why this is suddenly happening, after years of deceptive calm.

• Confusion as Ukraine and Russia announce progress towards peace (Reuters)... but not for stock buying algos, they know everything
• Obama Expresses Skepticism About Possible Ukraine Cease-Fire (WSJ)
• Fighters Unwind in Russia Where Beer Doesn’t Spell Death (BBG)
• Despite dangers, U.S. journalist Sotloff was determined to record Arab Spring's human toll (Reuters)
• New Beheading Video Spurs Calls for Global Response (BBG)
• Christie’s Spending on Outside Lawyers Passes $50 Million (BBG)
• IEX to Apply for Exchange Status (WSJ)
• UK says not ruling out airstrikes against Islamic State, says hostage video genuine (Reuters)

Back in the early 1990s, the North American Free Trade Agreement was one of the hottest political issues in the country.  When he was running for president in 1992, Bill Clinton promised that NAFTA would result in an increase in the number of high quality jobs for Americans that it would reduce illegal immigration.  Ross Perot warned that just the opposite would happen.  He warned that if NAFTA was implemented there would be a "giant sucking sound" as thousands of businesses and millions of jobs left this country.  Most Americans chose to believe Bill Clinton.  Well, it is 20 years later and it turns out that Perot was right and Clinton was dead wrong.  But now history is repeating itself, and most Americans don't even realize that it is happening.  As you will read about at the end of this article, Barack Obama has been negotiating a secret trade treaty that is being called "NAFTA on steroids", and if Congress adopts it we could lose millions more good paying jobs.

• Barack Obama's 'vacation from hell' (Politico)
• Russian aid convoy checked; military vehicles mass near Ukraine (Reuters)
• Ukraine Says APCs Entered From Russia to Aid Insurgents (BBG)
• Islamic State Said to Challenge Al-Qaeda for Leadership (BBG)
• Missouri protests calmer after governor puts black police captain in charge (Reuters)
• Finally someone will prove the US is a pyramid scheme (in a 1000 page presentation): Ackman’s Pershing Square Sues U.S. Over Fannie, Freddie (BBG)
• Banks, Financial Firms Load Up on Cheap Debt (WSJ)
• Putin to Meet Finnish President as Threat of Cold War Grows (BBG)