Las Vegas

What The "Gambler's Fallacy" Tells Us About Where The Market Will Go next

The Dow has closed at a record high for nine days in a row, so it (and U.S. equities generally) MUST be ready for a pullback, right?  Not so fast.  Thinking that reversion to the mean happens swiftly and reliably is something called “The Gambler’s Fallacy”.  To borrow from an old capital markets aphorism, things can stay weird longer than you can stay solvent betting against them.

Brexit: Individualism > Nationalism > Globalism

Ludwig von Mises understood that self-determination is the fundamental goal of liberty, of real liberalism. Today's Brexit vote fired a shot heard around the world, to challenge the wisdom of the “globalism is inevitable” narrative. Ultimately, Brexit is not a referendum on trade, immigration, or the technical rules promulgated by the (awful) European Parliament. It is a referendum on nationhood, which is a step away from globalism and closer to individual self-determination.

Man Arrested At Las Vegas Rally Said He Wanted To Kill Trump

 A federal officer says a man arrested at a Donald Trump rally in Las Vegas told authorities he tried to grab an officer's gun so he could kill the candidate.  A complaint filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Nevada charges Michael Steven Sandford with an act of violence on restricted grounds.  Sandford told officers he drove from California to kill Trump and went to a Las Vegas gun range the day before to learn to shoot.

ISIS Unveiled US "Kill List" Last Week, Including 600 Florida Residents

What will likely attract attention, and potentially lead to inquiries into why nothing was done in response, is that only a few days ago a pro-ISIS group released a hit list with the names of more than 8,000 people on it, mostly Americans. One report said that more than 600 people from Florida were on the list, and many of those targeted live in Palm Beach County and on the Treasure Coast.

Mapping The Cost Of "Sin" Across America

As spring heads into summer across the United States, many Americans may be enjoying a frosty adult beverage. And associated with the purchase of that alcohol, Americans will pay a hefty tax. The taxes collected from so-called sin taxes serve as a major source of revenue for some states. Sin taxes can cover activities from tobacco and alcohol to casino and racing gambling. States collected over $32 billion in sin taxes in 2014.... but which state pays the most for "sin"

"Clinton Nemesis" Klayman Comes To Trump's Defense: "Trump Right About Judicial Bias And Prejudice"

"Those who criticize Trump or others who see the world for what it is, and attack them for raising important issues about the judicial bias and prejudice that permeates our federal judiciary in particular, are not being honest with the American people. Our federal legal system and its judiciary is politicized, frequently intellectually dishonest and in some quarters even totally corrupt."

Frontrunning: June 1

  • Japan PM delays sales tax hike, puts fiscal reform on back burner (Reuters)
  • Japanese Shoppers Keep Wallets Shut Despite Sales-Tax Delay (BBG)
  • Global stocks limp into June on oil and data slips (Reuters)
  • Euro zone factory growth remained tepid in May - PMI (Reuters)
  • China's factories steadying but weak, hopes for quick recovery fade (Reuters)

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge

Following the latest set of global economic news, most notably a mediocre set of Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs, coupled with a mix of lackluster European manufacturing reports and an abysmal Japanese PMI, European, Asian stocks and U.S. stock index futures have continued yesterday's losses. Oil slips for 4th day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. The biggest winner was the Yen, rising 1%, with the USDJPY tumbling overnight and pushing both the Nikkei 1.6% lower and weighing on US futures.

A Spirit Of Violence And Civil Unrest Is Rising In America

It was only a matter of time before our deeply divided nation was going to start coming apart at the seams.  Waves of anger, frustration, violence and civil unrest are starting to sweep across the United States, and political rallies for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump have become a focal point for releasing some of that energy.  The angry mob that threw rocks, bottles and burning T-shirts at police and Donald Trump supporters on Tuesday night wanted to get the attention of the national media, and they got it in droves.  Now that the election is less than five months away, this kind of scene is going to be repeated over and over, and this is something that we warned about back in MarchMillions upon millions of our young people have fully embraced the radical left, and they have already made it exceedingly clear that they are not afraid to use violence to advance their cause.