Las Vegas

Even Case Shiller itself appears to have given up on housing as the driver of the wealth effect: "Five years into the recovery from the recession, the economy will need to look to gains in consumer  spending and business investment more than housing. Long overdue activity in residential  construction would be welcome, but is certainly not assured." And looking at actual city level data, we find that just 5 cities saw price increases in February; 13 of 20 cities saw their home prices decline.

• Russia raises interest rates to 7.5% (FT)
• Shanghai to Allow Raw Material Exchanges in Trade Zone (BBG)
• US, Japan Fail to Clinch Trade Deal (WSJ)
• 'We don't have a magic wand', says ECB's Constancio (Reuters)
• Tokyo Inflation Quickens to Fastest Since 1992 (BBG)
• Demand for Home Loans Plunges (WSJ)
• EU banks urged to grasp chance to raise capital (FT)

Presented with no comment... "Today, Bundy revealed himself to be a hateful racist... Bundy has endangered the lives of innocent women and children... it is unacceptable for individuals to use violence or the threat of violence to advance their radical views."

One of the most consistent debates emanating out of Washington in the past 6 years has been that dealing with income tax. Whether high, low, "fair" or "unfair", said discussions, however, focus solely on tax paid at the Federal level, and largely ignore that "other" key tax: state. Which is surprising, considering some states such as California demand a total contribution amounting to a third of the highest marginal Federal tax bracket, which could make some wonder if those bracing sea breezes are really worth it. But what about the other states? Here is the full breakdown of the states with the top income tax rates, those with the lowest, and all the states inbetween.

They’re not even trying to blame the weather this time.

UPDATE: The BLM has ceased rounding up Bundy's cattle - because of safety concerns

If you haven’t been following the unfolding drama at the Bundy Ranch about 80 miles northeast of Las Vegas you need to start now. The escalating confrontation between irate local residents and federal agents of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has the potential to take a very dangerous turn for the worse at any moment, as hundreds of militia members from states across the country are expected to descend upon the area and make a stand with 67-year-old Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy. The kindling for social upheaval has been growing in America for quite some time. Disrespectful and ignorant statements from billionaire oligarchs only make it worse. The question in my mind has always been what will the catalyst be to spark the brushfire? Will it be the Bundy Ranch? We’ll have to wait and see.

At first we though this is AP's version of Thursday humor however upon close examination it turned out to be all too real. Moments ago a woman was taken under arrest after throwing what she described as a shoe at the person who may well be America's next president, Hillary Clinton, during a Las Vegas speech.

The real truth the bankers wish to conceal from the public is that they use HFT programs to suppress gold and silver prices.

It’s been a couple months since we last updated readers on the epic disaster that is Obamacare. We now have some details on the average premium increase for non-Obamacare health plans following the implementation of the law, and the results are not pretty. According to a cost report from eHealthInsurance, premiums have increased by between 39%-56%; and furthermore, the demographic issue is a huge ticking time bomb as the 'mix' is not at all what was expected.

With Chinese authorities clamping down on the shadow-banking system, taking action of their bubble-bursting reforms, and now increasing the trading bands on the Yuan (to increase volatility and hopefully unwind, in a controlled manner, the biggest and most one-sided carry trade in the world's markets), we thought it perhaps surprising that growing numbers of Chinese are using UnionPay - a state-backed bank card - to illegally funnell billion of dollars out of the country. As Reuters reports, its unclear why the PBOC has not clamped down on this as documents show they are well aware of it... and as one clerk noted "don't worry... everyone's doing it."

The whole story about how private equity firms and hedge funds have steamrolled into the residential home market to become this decade’s slumlords is a story we covered long before mainstream media even knew it was happening. We first identified the trend in January of last year in one of my most popular posts of 2013: America Meet Your New Slumlord: Wall Street. Since then, we've done my best to cover the various twists and turns in this fascinating and disturbing saga. With all that in mind, let’s now take a look at the latest article from Bloomberg, which points out that Blackstone’s home purchases have plunged 70% from their peak last year. Perhaps they overestimated the rental cash flow potential of indebted youth living in their parents’ basements?

It’s nerve-wracking to live in the historical moment of an epic turning point, especially when the great groaning garbage barge of late industrial civilization doesn’t turn quickly where you know it must, and you are left feeling naked and ashamed with your dark worldview, your careful preparations for a difficult future, and your scornful or tittering relatives reminding you each day what a ninny you are to worry about the tendings of events. Persevere. There are worse things in this life than not being right exactly on schedule.

• Russian markets hit as Putin tightens grip on Crimea (Reuters)
• Ukraine Sees More Russian Incursions as Standoff Worsens (BBG)
• Ukraine Crisis Roils Global Markets (WSJ)
• Cold War Ghosts Haunt East Europe in Moves for Crimea (BBG)
• How Moscow Orchestrated Events in Crimea (WSJ)
• Russia Gas Threat Shows Putin Using Pipes to Press Ukraine (BBG)
• Euro-zone PMI slowed less sharply than estimated (MW)
• Two top Microsoft execs to leave in reshuffle (Reuters)
• Soaring Luxury-Goods Prices Test Wealthy's Will to Pay (WSJ)
• IQ-Boosting Drugs Aim to Help Down Syndrome Kids Learn (BBG)

A national average sounds an alarm: investors that drove up the housing market are bailing out

While the sell-side community urgently continues to pimp Seasonally Adjusted Case Shiller data, despite the Case-Shiller index creators' own wishes that NSA data be used, it is becoming increasingly difficult to mask the fact that home price momentum is fading. This is precisely what one sees when looking at the change in unadjusted prices, which in December posted the second sequential decline in a row, dropping by -0.08%, following a -0.05% drop in November for the 20-City Composite index, and the biggest sequential decline since November 2012. The annual increase of 13.42% was in line with the expected 13.4%, and was the third month in a row of declines in annual house prices, something we have known for a while, and which the 2 month delayed Case Shiler index finally confirmed. Finally, we are grateful to Case Shiller for being the first to admit that it was not all the weather: "Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability." Let's hope there is no rain in the Spring and sun in the summer then as everything else is already bad and getting worse.