Las Vegas

The world's first Bitcoin ATM will be ready for use this week at a coffee shop in Vancouver, Canada. Created by Las Vegas based Robocoin, the new ATM in Vancouver will allow users to turn bitcoins directly into Canadian dollars, or turn Canadian dollars into bitcoins. As The Telegraph reports, the ATM first scans the user's palm to ensure security and transfers are limited to CAD$3,000 per day. Until now, the currency existed only on the web but the introduction of these ATMs brings bitcoin-as-cash usage closer. The RoboCoin kiosks are expected to make the process of buying and selling Bitcoins much easier says Jordan Kelley, the company's chief executive. "Our goal is to make Bitcoin truly grandma-friendly," says Kelley. This is especially notable in light of President Obama asking Eric Schmidt if "Bitcoin is anything he has to worry about?"

If there was any doubt that the US housing "recovery" is anything but the latest speculative play by deep-pocketed (namely those who already have access to cheap funding) investors, who are now engaged in rotating cash gains out of capital markets and into real estate, on their way hoping to flip newly-acquired properties to other wealthy investors, then the most recent, September, RealtyTrac report will put that to rest. To wit: Institutional investors (purchasing 10 or more properties in the last 12 months) accounted for 14 percent of all sales in September, up from 9 percent in August and also 9 percent in September 2012. September had the highest percentage of institutional investor purchases of any month since RealtyTrac began tracking in January 2011....All-cash purchases nationwide represented 49 percent of all residential sales in September, up from a revised 40 percent in August and up from 30 percent in September 2012. In other words, institutional purchases are now at all time highs, with all-cash accounting for half of all transactions!

• Despite budget win, Obama has weak hand with Congress (Reuters)
• Carney Brings In McKinsey for Bank of England Strategy Rethink (BBG)
• Bill Gates Buys Stake in Spanish Construction Company FCC (WSJ)
• Jerusalem Mayor Barkat Seeks New Term in Race Arabs Sitting Out (BBG)
• J.P. Morgan Aimed to Limit Damage (WSJ)
• EU Lawmakers Reject Draghi Call for Bank Bondholder Clemency (BBG)
• Wall Street Profits May Halve in Second Half (WSJ)
• Petrobras-led group wins Brazil oil auction with minimum bid (Reuters)
• Apple to Refresh IPads Amid Challenges for Tablet Share (BBG)
• Italy plans to offer guarantees on govt bond derivatives (Reuters)
• Berkshire Beats Apple as Favorite Stock of Tiger 21 Group (BBG)

What do you expect to happen? The causal chain cannot be disrupted by wishful thinking. Bubbles will pop, and increasingly leveraged, fragile systems will crash. Hoping causal consequences will magically vanish is a strategy doomed to catastrophe.

The last week has seen dramatic upwards price action in the bitcoin markets, driven by a series of macro and micro events across the globe. The fallout from Silk Road’s closure turned out to be but a blip in bitcoin’s price history, with significant gains since then. Turmoil in global financial markets and recent news of leading global websites accepting bitcoin may have bolstered enthusiasm for digital currency, but most interesting may be CNY’s definitive recent price leadership.

• Republican Civil War Erupts: Business Groups v. Tea Party (BBG)
• Budget fight leaves Boehner 'damaged' but still standing (Reuters)
• Madoff Was Like a God, Wizard of Oz, Lawyers Tell Jury (BBG) - just like Bernanke
• Republicans press U.S. officials over Obamacare snags (Reuters)
• Brilliant: Fed Unlikely to Trim Bond Buying in October (Hilsenrath)
• More brilliant: Fed could taper as early as December (FT)
• Russia Roofing Billionaires Seen Among Country’s Youngest (BBG)
• Ford's Mulally won't dismiss Boeing, Microsoft speculation (Reuters)
• China reverses first-half slowdown (FT)
• NY Fed’s Fired Goldman Examiner Makes Weird Case (BBG)

As RealtyTrac observes in its latest flipping report, while home-flipping among high-end homes, or those reserved exclusively for the New Normal aristocracy which buys and sells with reckless abandon almost exclusively on an all cash basis, is up 34% over the prior year with flipping on houses priced between $2 and $5 million was up a ridiculous 350%, overall flipping activity is finally starting to subside and in the third quarter was down by a third from Q3 and over 10% down from the the prior year. Not surprisingly, the bulk of the ultra-luxury flips were limited to New York and the four core California bubble markets. "More than three-fourths of all high-end flips were in five markets: the New York metro area and four coastal California markets — Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose and San Diego.  Flips on homes priced between $1 million and $2 million increased 42 percent year over year, while flips on homes priced between $2 million and $5 million increased 350 percent year over year."

Last week we showed the worrisome level of exuberance that IPOs were creating in terms of price outperformance over the broad market. It turns out the similarities to the prior dot-com busts runs considerably deeper (and more worrisome). As the WSJ reports, 68% of U.S.-listed technology debuts this year, or 19 out of 28 deals, have been companies that lost money in the prior fiscal year or past 12 months. That is the highest percentage since 2007, and 2001 before that.

We identify the six investment themes that look likely to generate alpha over the coming decade.

Nowhere is China's historic misallocation of capital (resulting from a pace of credit creation that makes even the most fervent Keynesian western central banker green with envy) more evident and tangible, than in videos showing the tumbleweeds floating down the main streets of its ghost cities. We did that first in 2009, then followed up two years later only to find nothing has changed. Today, on yet another "two years later" anniversary, we go back to the scene of the excess capacity crime, to find out if thing may have finally normalized. For that we follow SBS' Adrian Brown who back in 2011 did an extensive report on what were some of the then unknown ghost cities dispersed across the mainland. What we find is that not only is the overcapacity problem nowhere close to being resolved, but that 20 new "ghost" cities are taking shape in this year alone.

• Summers Faces Key 'No' Votes if Picked for Fed (WSJ)
• NYT Editorial Board Says Summers Would Be Wrong Fed Choice (NYT)
• Russia says it's compiled 100-page report blaming Syrian rebels for a chemical weapons attack (McClatchy)
• China says Syria crisis can't be resolved with military strike (Reuters)
• G-20 Faces Growth Threats as Syria Adds to QE Exit Risks (Bloomberg)
• Apple Supplier Fire Spurs Biggest Chip Price Rise in 3 Years (BBG)
• U.S. Decided Not to Horse-Trade With Russia on Assad (WSJ)
• Financial Crisis: For Corporations and Investors, Debt Makes a Comeback (WSJ)
• Gorman Says Chance of Another Financial Crisis ‘Close to Zero’ (BBG) and in other news, "no risk of a Us downgrade" -  Tim Geithner
• A Biotech King, Dethroned (NYT)

• Merkel Blames SPD’s Schroeder for Letting Greece Into Euro (BBG)
• U.S. Bank Legal Bills Exceed $100 Billion (BBG)
• U.K. to Request U.N. Action to Protect Syrians From Chemical Weapons  (WSJ) - and Russia to veto any decision
• U.N. inspectors in new Syria mission as West prepares to strike (Reuters)
• Emerging-Market Rout Intensifies on Syria Jitters (WSJ)
• Rebels Without a Leader Show Limit to U.S. Role in Syria War (BBG)
• Anger at IRS Powers Tea-Party Comeback (WSJ)
• China has much at risk but no reach in Middle East (Reuters)
• 'London Whale' Penalties Put at $500 Million to $600 Million (WSJ)
• U.S. lawmaker says 'compelling' evidence of Syrian chemical attack (Reuters)

A quiet week to send off August ahead of a deluge of key data next week and as the fateful Septembr 18 FOMC announcement approaches. Still, quite a few macro events to keep track of.

• So no great rotation into EM? Capital Flows Back to U.S. as Markets Slump Across Asia (BBG)
• Muslim Brotherhood leader arrested in Egypt (Reuters)
• Allies Thwart America in Egypt: Israel, Saudis and U.A.E. Support Military Moves (WSJ)
• Dear Bloomberg: when you buy the loans of a distressed retailer, you are not betting on a rebound, you are betting on being the fulcrum security in a bankruptcy: Kyle Bass Said to Bet on J.C. Penney Comeback With Loan Purchase (BBG)
• Bubbles Bloom Anew in Desert as Buyers Wager on Las Vegas (BBG)
• Britain rejects Spanish request for Gibraltar talks (Reuters)
• U.K. Mortgage Lending Rises to Highest Since Lehman Collapse (BBG)
• Pension Funds Dispute Math in Detroit Bankruptcy (WSJ)
• Christie Says Gayness Inborn as He Signs Therapy Measure (BBG)

“We have to turn the page on the bubble-and-bust mentality that created this mess,” President Obama stated authoritatively in his weekend radio address... but do not get too excited by the possibility of a real end to the Keynesian experiment and a return to 'free' markets for the President, in his oh-so-not-trying-to-start-a-class-warfare-battle way, blames bubbles not on Central banks (who have done "an outstanding job") but on the skewed distribution of income. As Bloomberg reports, Obama states “When wealth concentrates at the very top, it can inflate unstable bubbles that threaten the economy." The problem with his way of thinking is best described by the status quo defender Sarah Bloom Raskin who offered up this insight into what the manipulation of market interest rates gives us, "asset bubbles are a feature of our financial landscape." So there it is, a feature (not a bug) that the President wants to get rid of (and yet wants to maintain the illusion that unrealized profit (and debt) is wealth).