Las Vegas

• Risky Student Debt Is Starting to Sour (WSJ)
• Political scandal in Spain as PP secret accounts revealed (El Pais)
• New York Times claims Chinese hackers hijacked its systems (NYT)
• Spain's Rajoy, ruling party deny secret payment scheme (Reuters)
• Iran crude oil exports rise to highest since EU sanctions (Reuters)
• BlackBerry 10’s Debut Fizzles as U.S. Buyers Left Waiting (BBG)
• Costs drag Deutsche Bank to €2.2bn loss  (FT)
• And the gaming of RWA continues - Deutsche Bank Beats Capital Goal as Jain Shrugs Off Loss (BBG)
• More fun out of London - Barclays, RBS May Pay Billions Over Improper Derivatives Sales (BBG)
• Hagel to face grilling by Senate panel on Mideast, budget (Reuters)

Buried deep in the bowels of the much-heralded last-minute fiscal-cliff deal, that saved us from a fate worse than death and raised taxes on 77% of Americans, was a quiet little provision, inserted at the last minute, that sharply slashed Medicare payments to brain-tumor radiation provider Elekta by 58% while leaving its main competitor Varian's payments unchanged. As the WSJ reports, the provision was put through by none other than Harry Reid - who has a 'deep relationship' with Varian (the winner). Whether crony capitalism is alive-and-well is up for debate - as Varian suggests this 'levels the playing field' but it is the fact that Varian beefed up its outside lobbyists to 18 (from 10) and the provision was not added until the last day suggests this stinks. Once again, it appears, our government is picking winners - and losers (with Elekta as a foreign company unable to participate financially in American elections). As the WSJ notes, the insert looks like the kind of provision helping a specific company or industry that lawmakers have repeatedly vowed to halt. Nonetheless, even in the budget bill tackling the so-called fiscal cliff, lawmakers found time to craft such provisions.

Since 2009 all cash buyers have purchased roughly one third of all Southern California home sales. This is a significant number and unlike the early 2000s, many of these buyers are looking to hold onto properties as rentals. A good portion of buying has come from larger hedge funds and an increase of foreign money has caused competition on an already low selection of homes to become more pronounced. The latest inventory report for California is telling in many ways. Many of the larger metro areas in California are seeing annual inventory drops of 50 to 70 percent. Those looking to buy are facing added competition from a variety of unlikely sources. Last year in February we set a record with the number of homes sold to absentee buyers (29.9 percent). Where is all the inventory going in California?

• Fed Pushes Into ‘Uncharted Territory’ With Record Assets (BBG)
• Next up in the currency wars: Korea - Samsung Drops on $2.8 Billion Won Profit-Cut Prediction (BBG)
• China Warns ‘Hot Money’ Inflows Possible on Easing From Abroad (Bloomberg)
• BOJ Shirakawa affirms easy policy pledge but warns of costs (Reuters)
• Merkel Takes a Swipe at Japan Over Yen (WSJ)
• Wages in way of Abe’s war on deflation (FT)
• Italian PM under fire over bank crisis (FT)
• Senior officials urge calm over islands dispute (China Daily)
• Spain tries to peel back business rules (FT)
• Rifts Over Cyprus Bailout Feed Broader Fears (WSJ)
• Soros Says the Euro Is Here to Stay as Currency War Looms (BBG)

“Those are my principles,” Marx said.  “And if you don't like them... well, I have others.”

While we doubt either Eye-Kaan or Ack Man will engage in open shootouts on the Las Vegas strip, we can't help but applaud when the "smartest guys in the room" openly talk shit about each other, such as what Ichan said about Ackman earlier on Bloomberg TV: "Look, it's no secret to the world and to Wall Street... I don't like Ackman. I have no respect for him and I don't like him and that's not a secret.... I wouldn't even say this, but it's no secret, I dislike the guy, I don't respect him." We get it, and we also get that the clear winner of Round 1 of Talking Smack is Eye-Kaan. We look look forward to the Ack Master's response with or without Titney Wilson chiming in.

• Foreign Hostages Die in Algeria’s Battle With Terrorists (Bloomberg)
• The latest bank to soon join the currency wars: McCafferty Says BOE Must Keep Open Mind on New Policy Tools (Bloomberg)
• US debt talks complicated by timing (FT)
• BOJ eyes open-ended asset buying, agrees new inflation goal (Reuters)
• AmEx Says U.S. Card Income Fell 42% as Loss Provisions Increased (BBG)
• Call to raise age for US’s Medicare (FT)
• Obama Promise to Raise Middle Class Living Already Seen in Peril (BBG)
• China Exits Slowdown as Quarterly Growth Tops Forecasts (BBG) - actually, as new Politburo says to make it appear that way
• Britain to drift out of European Union without reforms (Reuters)
• Republicans weigh interim debt-limit hike (FT)
• Abe's aide says Japan shouldn't fret if yen falls to 100 vs dlr (Reuters) ... and it was 90 just a few days ago
• PBOC May Seek More Liquidity Operations (Dow Jones)

• Guess who doesn't believe in the "great rotation out of bonds and into stocks": Abe Aids Bernanke as Japan Seen Buying Foreign Debt (BBG)
• AIG Sues Federal Reserve Vehicle in Dispute Over Lawsuit Rights (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Said to Weigh Disclosing Whale Report Faulting Dimon (BBG)
• Ugly Choices Loom Over Debt Clash (WSJ)
• Credit Suisse to cut bonus pool by 20 percent (Reuters)
• Brazilian Bikini Waxes Make Crab Lice Endangered Species (BBG)
• EU redrafts plan for bank rescue funding (FT)
• JCPenney stock plunges after bad holiday (NY Post)
• Regulator Comments Buoy Shanghai Stocks (WSJ)
• Japan voters back PM Abe's efforts to spur growth, beat deflation (Reuters)
• Cameron averts row over Europe speech (FT)
• Swatch Buys Harry Winston Jewelry Brand for $1 Billion (BBG)

Israel hasn`t attacked Iran, huge builds in gasoline products, no jump in demand, yet oil price moved up regardless...

Get rich, but not so fast. 

Bulk (Wall Street) buyers have been receiving a lot of attention recently. It's time to take a closer look. There is little data available pertaining to bulk investors and even less meaningful analysis. Historically, Wall Street has never been active in direct ownership of single family homes, so there is no past histrory to learn from. We need to start from scratch. Anecdotally, Las Vegas is the most shocking: "... never seen a market where over half of the buyers paid cash and over 1/3 of the sales were financed via the FHA, leaving only 14% of sales in the "other" category." The herd mentality is in full control with buying increasing at all levels. How long will this feeding frenzy last? Will the bulk investors be able to generate enough returns to whet their appetite for more? Stay tuned.

• OECD slashes 2013 growth forecast (FT)
• Fiscal Cliff Compromise Elusive as Congress Returns (Bloomberg)
• China’s PBOC Chief Search Spurs Focus on Finance Regulators (Bloomberg)
• Elected, but Still Campaigning (WSJ)
• Pentagon Readies Options for Afghanistan Force After 2014 (Bloomberg)
• Greece Wins Easier Debt Terms as EU Hails Rescue Formula (Bloomberg)
• Monti presses Cameron for EU referendum (FT)
• Welcome, Mr Carney – Britain needs you (FT)
• Argentina seeks halt to $1.3bn debt order (FT)
• Asean chief warns on South China Sea disputes (FT)
• South Korea Tightens FX Rules to Temper Won Surge (WSJ)

[And now it’s time for Mr. Obama to start paying for all those votes by reaching deep into our pockets. If you intend to avoid paying your “fair share,” however, please take note: There will be  few places to hide. For a gimlet-eyed view of what may lie in store for taxpayers and citizens of all political persuasions during the next four years, ponder the guest commentary below, from Wayne Siggard, a regular in the Rick’s Picks forum. RA]

The dollar rises for the same reason gold and grain rise: scarcity and demand. Which is easier to export: manufactured goods that require shipping ore and oil halfway around the world, smelting the ore into steel and turning the oil into plastics, laboriously fabricating real products and then shipping the finished manufactured goods to the U.S. where fierce pricing competition strips away much of the premium/profit? Or electronically printing money and exchanging it for real products, steel, oil, etc.? I think we can safely say that creating money out of thin air and "exporting" that is much easier than actually mining, extracting or manufacturing real goods. This astonishing exchange of conjured money for real goods is the heart of the "exorbitant privilege" that accrues to the issuer of the global reserve currency (U.S. dollar). To understand the reserve currency, we must understand Triffin's Paradox.

In a word, this weekend, next week, we are facing what the boys in the South call “chicken fried.” This is the moment when the ingredients lounging in your kitchen get tossed in the frying pan and are cooked up with grease (perhaps Greece) splattering everywhere and some concoction that is decidedly unhealthy for you is tossed upon your plate. A week ago the menu consisted of the Capitol Grill of America’s Fiscal Cliff, the red wine (perhaps whine) of Spain and the seemingly never ending fried in olive oil mess provided by both Athens and Brussels. That would have been enough “Opa” for anyone as plates get smashed and people whirl around on some table like dervishes but now we have a new option on the menu, a special provided by the Great Chef in the sky. We get to throw in the latkes of Israel and the hummus provided by Hamas. Any of these menu selections could provide severe heartburn all by themselves but eaten together; a hospital stay may be required or a plot at the cemetery.