Simple near-term outlook.
When the dollar falls, we are told it is logical. The empire is crashing and burning. When the dollar rises, the markets, we are told are manipulated. Well, the dollar is back, and the technical correction ended, near we told you it would.
Deny it. Engage in all kinds of mental gymnastics to dismiss it if you must, but the fact is the US dollar is rising, and not just because of negative developments abroad, but positive economic developments in the US.
A rubber band can remain stretched for some time, but it takes some force to keep it stretched. In this case, the force is the daily VIX body-slam and the resulting pop up in equities. This has worked to keep RUT and its cousins aloft for several weeks of going nowhere, but the chart suggests all the kiddies who are supremely confident that Santa will deliver more equity gains might find their complacency is not rewarded.
Just for fun, let's look at one chart and ask one question: is this stock continuing its downtrend or is it in the process of reversing?
What if global capitalism is not about to collapse? What if the sun rises next week, and the great apocolypse called for and predicted does not materialize yet, what then for the dollar?
Overview of the capital markets as if they were not managed by an evil cabal.
Did the sharp sell-off in crude oil trigger the meltdown in stocks? While there are plenty of potential reasons for the stock market to drop - stretched valuations, the slowdown in Germany, Japan and China, etc. - it is more than possible that the recent sell-off in crude oil might have served as a trigger. Crucially, as we explained in detail here and here, if the manipulation of prices of crude oil lower by the Saudis is indeed a US-friendly anti-Russian move, how much equity market pain (and thus created wealth) is America willing to take for the use of "The Oil Weapon"?
The world may be a big conspiracy and civilization as we know it may end soon, but if you care what the dollar may do next week, take a look at this post.
A permanently high plateau of stock prices is a marvelous innovation: you can practically set your watch to the steady tick of new all-time highs, and all you need to plan your retirement or cash-out of your stock options is a ruler and a pencil--just extend the price line as far forward as you want, and calculate your wealth. The only downside of this permanently high plateau of stock prices is that it eliminates the need for the financial punditry and the workforce of money managers. With bearish influences and volatility both eradicated, there is nothing left to talk about except the upward slope of the permanent plateau.
Investing in oneself and enterprises one actively controls may now be the only legitimate deployment of capital that qualifies as an investment in the traditional sense - that is, capital isn't being risked in rigged gambling halls and Ponzi schemes.
Is this stock market decline the "real deal"? (that is, the start of a serious correction of 10% or more) Or is it just another garden-variety dip in the long-running Bull market? Let’s start by looking for extremes that tend to mark the tops in Bull markets.
Overview of the price action in the forward exchange market and a look ahead.