MACD

Muni-Bond Market To Trump: "Your Tax Cuts Are Dead"

Given the lack of progress on the ACA replacement/repeal, the harsh criticism of Trump’s proposed budget, and the ongoing turmoil of the Trump Administration, the likelihood of tax cuts is becoming a much more distant reality. As such, the municipal bond market (and the Treasury market) have begun to aggressively discount the probability of significant tax reform any time soon.

Bob Prechter Warns Market Correction "Larger Than The Malaise Of The '30s" Looms

"Because people do not perceive their moods, tops and bottoms in markets sneak right past them. At the top, people will love the market, and events and conditions will provide them with ample bases for rationalizing being heavily invested... the degree of the corrective wave will be larger than that which created the malaise of the 1930s and 1940s."

Caution: Protection Required

Negativity has been replaced by positivity, any sense of caution has been thrown to the wind, bullishness is pervasive and bears look like idiots. In short: All the conditions one wants to see if one is interested in a market fade or at least in getting some protection.

Fake Out: A Rally Built On 'Hot Air'

One of the most fascinating aspects of market psychology is participants’ tendency to get bullish at new highs, especially in light of the fact that in recent years every major rally, especially those producing new highs, have set up for a sizable trade to the short side.

Please Assume Crash Positions

The cliff and the gaps both beckon. That few believe Mr. Market can possibly stumble only increases the odds of a stumble.

Is The US Dollar Set To Soar?

Which blocs/nations are most likely to face banking/liquidity crises in the next year? The FX roulette wheel is still spinning, but the ball will drop fairly soon, if not in Q4 2016 then in Q1 2017.

FBN Warns "Buy The Dead Cat Bounce At Your Own Risk"

While there has been a plethora of calls by "invested" pundits and analysts, urging clients to stay invested or, even better, BTFD, following the Friday selloff and the Monday rebound, we have also seen some more cautious recommendations, such as this one by FBN's JC O'hara, warning clients "Buy the ‘Dead Cat’ Bounce at Your Own Risk."

There Is No Asset Bubble?

Does an asset bubble currently exist? Ask anyone and they will tell you “NO.” However, maybe it is exactly that tacit denial which might just be an indication of its existence.

What The Charts Say: Fatally Attracted To New Highs

So we’re short term overbought, with 3 unfilled gaps below and lower highs still in place with stocks being the most expensive in years and yet the NYSE Composite Index is still below key resistance. Ignore it all if you find yourself attracted to new highs. They may indeed come, just remember who gets hurt when the attraction proves fatal...

Myopic Markets & The Looming Mall REITs Massacre

While markets are myopically co-moving to the siren songs of Fed hawks and doves, deteriorating fundamentals are becoming harder to ignore. Like wildfires, it’s hard to predict how quickly and where market panic will spread to next. However, the chain-reaction of peak consumer credit growth, softening retail sales, and tightening credit conditions does not bode well for REITs going forward.