Is It Time to Get into Crash Positions, Or Will The Market Just Enter A Glide Path Rather Than A TailspinSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/22/2015 13:52 -0400
After a dizzying 500+ point drop in the Dow on Friday, should we brace for impact? There are plenty of fundamental and technical reasons to view the swoon this week as the initial downturn that presages a crash landing. But if we look at the last equivalent spike down in October 2014, we're not so sure. Both spikes (October 2014 and August 2015) smashed through the lower Bollinger band, but the volume in last week's plummet was nothing special compared to the 2014 swoon.
Steep losses in the dollar, stocks and commodities, for sure, but does it really signal a systemic crisis?
Whether, or not, a Greek exit from the Eurozone or a potential debt default is "the thing" that sparks the next major correction in the markets is unknown. Historically, such a widely "known" event is generally already factored into the markets and has much less of an impact when that event eventually comes to fruition. As Art Cashin suggested this morning: "I think China may be more important than Greece. Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble."
These charts help us understand that a top is not just price, but a reversal in extremes of margin debt, valuation and sentiment. Many observers have an unyielding faith that central banks will never let markets decline ever again. There are four flaws in this blind faith...
A 480-point drop in the S&P is currently deemed impossible; but then 480-point declines are always "impossible," yet they happen despite this presumed impossibility.
Yogi Berra, one of the keenest observers of the human condition, is said to have once remarked "It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future." And so it is.
Currently, with Central Banks fully engaged in monetary interventions on an unprecedented global scale, there is seemingly nothing that can stop the current advance. Of course, it is that very "thought process" that has been a hallmark of exuberant markets in the past.
The central bank high is euphoric, the crash and burn equally epic. Be careful what monkey you invite to latch onto your back...
Mohamed El-Erian's comments this week caused a stir among the status quo-huggers, as they were clearly a valuation call on the financial markets suggesting that currently having capital invested was likely to yield substantially lower or negative return in the future. This is an extremely important concept in understanding the "real value of cash." Not unlike the rhetoric of the late 1990’s or mid-2000’s, there is no shortage of rationalizations for why such currently extraordinary valuations are reasonable and justifiable. The fact remains firmly in place, stocks are expensive. Of course, since Wall Street does not make fees on investors holding cash, maybe there is another reason they are so adamant that you remain invested all the time.
Hint: Take a look at the latest COT reports!
Meet ForexChile, the largest purveyor of leveraged contracts for difference in Chile and the subject of a scathing Bloomberg report which outlines how unsuspecting retail investors end up 100X leveraged on derivatives they sometimes do not understand.
Simple near-term outlook.
When the dollar falls, we are told it is logical. The empire is crashing and burning. When the dollar rises, the markets, we are told are manipulated. Well, the dollar is back, and the technical correction ended, near we told you it would.