MACD

What The Charts Say: Fatally Attracted To New Highs

So we’re short term overbought, with 3 unfilled gaps below and lower highs still in place with stocks being the most expensive in years and yet the NYSE Composite Index is still below key resistance. Ignore it all if you find yourself attracted to new highs. They may indeed come, just remember who gets hurt when the attraction proves fatal...

Myopic Markets & The Looming Mall REITs Massacre

While markets are myopically co-moving to the siren songs of Fed hawks and doves, deteriorating fundamentals are becoming harder to ignore. Like wildfires, it’s hard to predict how quickly and where market panic will spread to next. However, the chain-reaction of peak consumer credit growth, softening retail sales, and tightening credit conditions does not bode well for REITs going forward.

What The Charts Say: No Bull - The Evidence

Today, looking at the technical evidence that, so far, suggests that there is zero evidence to suggest that we are in a bull market. In fact it appears there is risk building that this is a completely broken market in its final inning. Yes we’ve had a massive rally off of the February lows, but the technical evidence is mounting that this may still be a bear market rally. Why? Because key charts remain decisively bearish and any sizable pullback could literally kill any notion of a bull market...

The Chinese Start Buying Silver: BofA Says "Momentum Breaks Out To Highest In Years"

Spiking demand for silver has pushed it to fresh 10 month highs above $17/ounce. One reason suggested for the buying came from Reuters, which said "that there is heavy buying in silver in Shanghai, and that has triggered buying in gold as well," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. This may just be the beginning as technicians are finally starting to pay attention.

What The Charts Say: 15 "Risks" To The Recent Rally

The stock surge from February is at risk, warns BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier as a plethora of bearish divergences could cap further gains from here. 2044-2022 are key nearby S&P 500 support for April, but a loss of 2022 is required to break the last higher low from 3/24 and suggest a deeper decline for the S&P 500. The following 15 risk-factors - from VIX term structure steepness to Dow Theory Sell signals - all point to a retest of the recent 1810-1820 lows.

The Next Critical Level For The S&P: Stay Above 2,028 Or Channel Support Is Broken

The S&P 500 is stalling below 2085 as daily momentum for price action and especially market breadth is waning. Similar to early November, confirmation of a near-term S&P 500 peak could come on a close below rising channel support near 2028 with daily Williams %R moving out of overbought. This would place the focus on the 200 and 100- day MAs near 2017 and 1997, respectively, which are ahead of chart support at 1969- 1947.

"Everything Is Rolling Over" - BofA Watches The Carnage

"Should the S&P 500 “The Generals” follow the weakness in the Value Line, NYSE, Russell 2000, and S&P Midcap 400 “The Troops”, there is risk below 1812-1810 toward 1730 (38.2% of 2011-2015 rally) and then 1600- 1575."

Have Stocks Priced In A Recession? (Spolier Alert: Not Even Close)

"Based on current valuations, the prices of most stocks don’t appear to have factored in a recession scenario, ‘hence the downside should we see a recession could be rather severe',... the shares of most companies could still fall another 50% or more from current levels."

What The Charts Say: "Similar Topping Process To 2000 & 2007"

The deterioration of the indicators highlighted below point to a downside break for the late-stage cyclical bull market from 2009, according to BofAML. Should 1,867 decisively give way, the 1820 (October 2014 low) provides additional support but the bigger risk is a top that projects down to 1,600-1,575; and derspite the last 2 days' bounce, volume and breadth suggest a market under distribution or selling pressure, not primed for new highs.

"Markets Crash When They're Oversold"

When markets begin a "bear" cycle, they can remain in an oversold condition for extended periods. There is an important 'truism' to remember - "Markets crash when they’re oversold."