March FOMC

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike But Here Are "The Two Most Interesting Questions"

While conceding that a hike is guaranteed, Goldman notes that two issues should make this week's FOMC meeting particularly interesting. First, will Fed officials alter their policy views in response to the increasingly different signals that both sides of the mandate are sending about the urgency of further tightening? Second, will the press conference provide some clarity on what the next tightening step following the June hike will be?

Global Stocks Dip On Poor US Auto Sales, Apple Miss; Fed Decision On Deck

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all fall as investors digested poor overnight news on Apple earnings and U.S. car sales, while the dollar rose in muted trading as investors contemplated chances of another rate hike next month ahead of today's Federal Reserve statement.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: FOMC, Payrolls, 131 S&P Companies Report

Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, and French & Italian politics - the decisive runoff round of the French election takes place this Sunday - this week's releases are dominated by US payrolls expected to come around 170k. The busy release calendar continues with Norges bank and RBA meetings as well as global manufacturing PMIs.

Monumental Gridlock Meets Blind Euphoria

"To me, this situation feels like a slow-motion train wreck where all you can do is watch... Washington’s monumental gridlock is on a collision course with investors’ blind euphoria. We’re all on one train or the other. Hold on tight."

FOMC Minutes Preview

With the March FOMC Minutes due out shortly. here are the key items to focus on.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Payrolls; FOMC Minutes; Trump Meets Xi

The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. The meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago will likely attract significant attention.

Global Stocks, US Futures Rise On First Day Of Q2 As Trump-Xi Meeting Looms

After the best quarter for US stocks since 2015, global equities have started off Q2 on the right foot, despite caution about the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping later this week, and Fed Minutes which are expected to be more hawkish than the FOMC statement.

Fed's Dudley: "I Don’t Think We Are Removing The Punch Bowl Yet"

"William McChesney Martin, the ninth chair of the FOMC, once famously opined that the Federal Reserve is “in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”  I don’t think we are removing the punch bowl, yet.  We’re just adding a bit more fruit juice."

Morgan Stanley Finds A "Stunning Divergence" In The Economic Data

"The divergence is stunning. Upside surprises appear to be completely driven by the soft data... we would not necessarily expect 'hard data' surprise indices to start racing higher if the factors behind the 2Q growth rebound remain narrowly confined to a few sectors as we expect..."

Deutsche: The Fed Gave Trump Just Enough Rope To Hang Himself With

"The future is bimodal with volatility to be found between politics vs. policy... Either political bottlenecks clear and the stimulus gets approved and goes full force leading to higher growth potential with structural steepening of the curve, or political tensions effectively sabotage either its arrival or content (or both), and the curve initially bear flattens or even twists with rate shorts capitulation accelerating the rally of the back end."

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.

A Critical Week For Markets Begins: Preview Of The Main Events

A pivotal, catalyst-filled week for global markets is now underway as investors brace for the second US interest rate hike in 2 quarter, a Dutch election, the expiration of the US debt ceiling deal, the imminent invoking of Article 50 by Theresa May, the first G20 finance ministers' meeting of the Trump era and perhaps the disclosure of Trump's proposed budget.