It is official: Trump or no Trump, foreign central banks, SWFs and virtually every other official institution in possession of US paper, and as of this month, private investors too, are liquidating their Treasury holdings at a record pace.
In the US, easy central bank policy leads to greater corporate bond issuance and leverage, which in turn result in companies buying back their own equity - and to that extent QE is now residing on individual company balance sheets. In contrast, in Japan the BOJ simply buys Japanese equities directly. This difference is important
It is becoming increasingly obvious that foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, reserve managers, and virtually every other official institution in possession of US paper, is liquidating their holdings at a very disturbing rate.
"They know the economy is in the shitter and the average American is not better off than they were four or eight years ago. As a last ditch effort to keep this tsunami of history from rolling over them and sweeping away the last vestiges of their corrupt rule, they have ramped up the printing presses and government spending to try and make the masses believe the economy is hitting on all cylinders. It will fail, and the peasants will be coming for them."
"So for what it’s worth however the ECB decides to navigate their latest challenge we are less inclined to embrace the classic financial sector meltdown led risk off trade that forces core rates significantly lower. Or at least it would need a spectacular display of policy incompetence first. (On second thoughts..?!)"
On the current path, the world is experiencing the largest artificial asset allocation in modern history, one that is driven by a misguided interest rate regime that has lost its efficacy and is producing more harm than good. Yet the fear of withdrawal pain is keeping central bankers from doing the inevitable: Quit. The response is predictable: "I need the drugs!"
"The impact of the BOJ’s stimulus is that the bond markets worldwide are becoming one market. If there’s a reversal of policy, you can’t rule out that it would roil global debt" said SMBC Nikko Securities. "It would definitely see some pain" added Old Mutual Global.
The corporate mainstream media faux journalists scorn and ridicule anyone who makes the case we are currently in the midst of another Great Depression. They are paid to peddle a recovery narrative to keep the masses ignorant, sedated, and distracted by latest adventures of Caitlyn Jenner and the Kardashians. An impartial assessment of the facts reveals today’s Depression to be every bit as dreadful for the average American as it was in the 1930s
there was renewed speculation if Icahn had given up on his record bearish bet. So when overnight IEP released its latest 10-Q, we were eager to find out if Carl had unwound his record short, or perhaps, added more to it. What we found is that one quarter after having a net short position of -149%, as of June 30, Icahn's net position was once again -149%, or in other words, he has once again never been shorter the market.
There is now $13 trillion of global negative-yielding debt. And, as the WSJ writes, even a small increase in interest rates could inflict hefty losses on investors. With the 2013 "taper tantrum" the Fed sparked a selloff as it discussed ending its bond-buying program known as quantitative easing. A repeat "would be very painful for a lot of people" said J.P. Morgan. This is just how painful.
Brexit is just a symptom of the disease eating away at the fabric of our global economy. Lehman’s collapse was not the cause of the 2008 worldwide financial crisis. It was just the excuse for something that was going to happen no matter what. Bad debt, bad bankers, bad regulators, bad politicians, media cheer leading, and a willfully ignorant populace were a toxic combination – and it’s worse today.
Moments ago Jefferies, which is still on the investment banking cycle of reporting where its earnings (and in this case, losses) arrive one month ahead of the other banks, and as such is a good bellwether into overall Wall Street revenue trends, reported an absolute disaster of a quarter, its worst since the financial crisis.