Mark To Market
Flawed Fundamentals, Nasty Macro, Structural Industry Change: For Wall Street Banks It Really Is Different This TimeSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 08/26/2015 09:39 -0400
This time, it really is different. It's "Structural", not "Cyclical". It's actually a very big difference, and banking will never be the same.
Not only is the equity market going to crash (after a dead cat bounce) the property market is about to pass out pain like you won't believe.
The purpose of this article is to outline, with facts, large global structural issues that everyone, bulls and bears alike, should be fully aware of. This article will focus on much larger structural issues that have been building for years and decades. And no this article is not so much about central banks, debt issues, Greece, China, deficits, etc. While all these are important as part of the overall picture, they are mere current symptoms of a much larger issue that is at the core of all that is already in play and will only deepen in our societies in the decades to come.
Why Greece is simply a symptom of a much larger problem
The impact of a full-blown financial crisis in China, if it materializes, on the economy would likely be severe. On corporate earnings, other than the drag from slower growth, many companies may have to book stock-market related losses over the next few quarters by our assessment. Stock lending related losses could run into Rmb trillions.
This next week is not so much about Greece the butterfly, but it is about keeping the butterfly from becoming a hindrance to the math working globally. And the Greek government knows this. They are negotiating on the basis that a bad Greek deal from Europe’s point of view is better than a default. Angela Merkel wanted a concluded Greek deal before markets open on Monday. Now she has a mess.
"Central bank distortions have forced investors into positions they would not have held otherwise, and forced them to be the ‘same way round’ to a much greater extent than previously... unless fundamentals move so as to justify current valuations, when central banks move towards the exit, investors will too.... The way out may not prove so easy; indeed, we are not sure there is any way out at all."
“Things always become obvious after the fact” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley
Take note, Gold is officially money for the most powerful entities in the world. They are not only accepting Gold as collateral but are openly trying to insure that they have their own Gold in safe custody.
"A relatively low-profile entity in Austria – Pfandbriefbank Oesterreich AG (Pfandbriefbank) – is becoming the next critical chapter in the Austrian banking system story." - Daiwa
The captured corporate MSM is celebrating the six year anniversary of when the stock market bottomed in March 2009. They will spin a false narrative of Bernanke, Obama and Geithner saving the world with TARP, QE, and the $800 billion Porkulus bill. In fact, Bernanke and Geithner stopped the market from falling in March 2009 by threatening the accounting geeks at the FASB and forcing them to allow fraudulent reporting by the insolvent Wall Street banks. The crisis ended – precisely – on March 16, 2009, when the Financial Accounting Standards Board abandoned FAS 157 "mark-to-market" accounting, and Mark to fantasy was born.
"I am somewhat concerned, at least given the way things stand now, about the market reaction. First, the lack of details will create some uncertainty and concern, particularly because there’s not a great deal said about the “problem children,” the BAC and Citi. Secondly, I think the markets will be disappointed in the following sense: As I will describe, this is a real truth-telling kind of plan. It’s fundamentalist. It’s not about giving the banks a break. It’s not about using accounting principles to give them backdoor capital. It’s very much market-oriented and “tough love.” And I think we all will like that. I like that. But the banks’ shareholders aren’t going to be thrilled about it."
The Japanese fire at the Europeans. The Europeans fire at the Japanese & Chinese. The Chinese fire scattershot at everybody else in Asia. England & America prep to teach those they consider muppets not to play with guns. It's World War Money, if you know what I mean...