Market Breadth

Traders Worry As Divergence Deja Vu Looms

While 'everything was awesome' this morning in stock market land (economic data, Fed uncertainty, and domestic terrorism aside), the more troubling reality under the surface of the equity market's gains is a plunge in 52-week highs... a divergence which spelled big trouble the last time it occurred.

World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Says Active Manager Capitulation Is "Getting Close"

"Ultimately everyone is forced in. Sometimes this happens through capitulation by previously sceptical investors, or sometimes it happens through pure greed as fear of missing out takes over. The big question is, how close are we to that moment? I think we are indeed getting close. Goldman Sachs data on hedge funds show that top 10 positions for average hedge funds make up 70% of long positions."

Should Investors Be Bullish Or Bearish Right Now: BofA Explains

"Our “Japanification” theme argues for big, fat, volatile trading ranges being the norm. The rallies (Japan rallied +20% every year during the 1990s (Chart 8) and the fades are always driven by Policy (panic & complacency), Profits (troughs & peaks in PMI’s) & Positioning (fear & greed). As bulls begin to dominate, confidence in the macro improves & the Fed starts to talk-up prospect of rate hikes, we would use Q2 to add to volatility exposure." - BofA

Earnings Implosion Looms Amid The Illusion Of "Permanent Liquidity"

The problem with forward earnings estimates is that they consistently overestimate reality by roughly 33% historically. The illusion of“permanent liquidity,” and the belief of sustained economic growth, despite slowing in China, Japan, and the Eurozone, has emboldened analysts to continue push estimates of corporate profit growth higher. Even now, as the earnings recession deepens, hopes of a sharp rebound in profitability remains ebullient despite the lack of any signs of economic re-acceleration.

Is Market Breadth Beginning To Sour?

The rally since February has done very little “wrong” in terms of its quality of advance. Sure, many folks would have liked to have seen more volume accompanying the move. We have pointed out some preliminary evidence of complacent or overly bullish sentiment, at least on a short-term basis. Now, we are beginning to see the until-now stellar rally breadth begin to show cracks. However, for the first time since mid-February, the breadth situation is not looking quite as sweet as it was.

The Next Critical Level For The S&P: Stay Above 2,028 Or Channel Support Is Broken

The S&P 500 is stalling below 2085 as daily momentum for price action and especially market breadth is waning. Similar to early November, confirmation of a near-term S&P 500 peak could come on a close below rising channel support near 2028 with daily Williams %R moving out of overbought. This would place the focus on the 200 and 100- day MAs near 2017 and 1997, respectively, which are ahead of chart support at 1969- 1947.

BAML Warns Bad Market Breadth Signals November Nosedive Deja-Vu

Market breadth momentum contonues to weaken as the S&P 500 grinds higher, setting up a bearish outcome similar to the early November 2015 top. As BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier warns a break below channel support at 1989 would signal an interim top.

Breadth Breakdown Bodes Badly For Budding Bulls

While the S&P 500 held support at January low (1,812) yesterday (and October 2014's Bullard bounce lows), BMO's Russ Visch warns "it may not hold in the days ahead" due to weak market breadth.

Technically Speaking: It's Now Or Never For Santa

With the market now back to oversold conditions and redemptions complete, it is now or never for the traditional “Santa Rally.” Statistically speaking, the odds are high that the market will muster a rally over the next couple of weeks. While the short-term trends are indeed still bullishly-biased, the longer-term analysis (monthly) reveals a more dangerous picture emerging.

Don't Believe The Hope

If there is one chart that tells the 'truth' about the US equity 'market' it is this. Not only has breadth collapsed back to Black Monday lows (despite elevated index prices) but yesterday's exuberant rip higher diverged dramatically from a very significant drop (3 decliners for every advancer) in overall market breadth. Yes, it's Fed week, and OPEX, but the underlying support for the ponzi is waning rapidly.