The banquet of consequences is about to be served.
Irrational market exuberance hits its zenith after Doha talks fail as oil prices rise, instead of fall, because of minor Kuwait oil strike, then stay up after the strike fails within a day, then rise more when Saudis promise to retaliate with more production and stay up when Russians promise to retailiate with still more production.
For those who believe that broad-based stimulus is coming to save the world from China (via RRR cuts or even pure QE) - as opposed to the hole-filling credit pump they just supported - think again. As we warned last year, this is 'western' thinking as the go to policy of the rest of the world's central banks has been - put on pants, print money, paper over cracks, proclaim victory. However, in China there is one big problem with this... stoking inflation... and most crucially the social unrest concerns when suddenly a nation of newly minted equity - and now bond - losers can no longer afford their pork - which is surging to record highs.
It must be tempting for the believers to again revel in the brute power of the “perpetual money machine.” Yet the costs associated with the latest round of monetary inflation are steep. Not many months ago it appeared that China was determined to rein in excess, while the U.S. was ready to lead the world toward policy normalization. Today it’s become rather obvious that China is out of control and global policymakers are trapped at near zero or negative rates and perpetual QE monetary inflation. What was always sold as temporary extraordinary measures is increasingly recognized as desperate “whatever it takes” indefinitely.
Well, that didn't take long.
In a stunning victory for "conspiracy theorists" within the precious metals space, overnight Deutsche Bank not only agreed to settle a lawsuit accusing it of manipulating the silver fix, but also agreed to help the plaintiffs pursue similar claims against other banks as part of the settlement by providing instant messages and other communications. And so the former cartel members are turning on each other.
At Kviabryggja Prison, the tumult in the capital seems worlds away. It’s dead quiet around the single-story barracks, and in the distance rise massifs that form Iceland’s western fjords. The Kaupthing convicts are marking time in different ways. A couple of them are tutoring fellow inmates. The subjects: math and economics.
"In our “Top 10 market themes for 2016”, we argued that the ‘Bernanke put’ might gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. Recall, the ‘Bernanke put’ was the idea that meaningful declines in market sentiment would be met with aggressive monetary action, thus providing a buffer to downside risk. Our notion of the ‘Yellen call’ was the converse of this – that with labor markets approaching full employment and core PCE inflation rising towards target, meaningful rallies in market sentiment would likely be met with a more robust withdrawal of policy accommodation.... It hasn’t happened."
With all of Europe and the U.S. closed for holiday, what little market action there was overnight came out of Asia, where China once again was engaged in its last hour "National Team" market manipulation, which saved the SHCOMP from a red close after the now traditional last hour buying spree pushed the Shanghai Composite from red on the session an hour before close to near the highs of the day.
We continue to see silver as very undervalued vis a vis gold but more especially vis a vis stocks, bonds and many property markets. Rather than selling the financial insurance that is gold, we would advise reducing allocations to stocks, bonds and property and allocating to silver.
- Dow's Freakish Bounce Makes Investors Whole, Can't Erase Doubts (BBG)
- R.I.P. Dollar Rally as Dovish Fed Spurs Worst Slump Since 2011 (BBG)
- Global Currencies Soar, Defying Central Bankers (WSJ)
- Oil hits 2016 high above $42 on production and demand outlook (Reuters)
- The U.S. Is Exporting Its Oil Everywhere (BBG)
- Hillary Clinton’s Allies Launch Plan to Undercut Donald Trump Now (WSJ)
Congratulations To Prominent Anti-HFT Crusader Eric Hunsader For Winning $750,000 Whistleblower AwardSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2016 09:58 -0400
We are delighted to report that after many years, Nanex has finally been vindicated, and is the first whistleblower paid under the Dodd-Drank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 meant "to reward an independent third party for analysis of a potential securities law violation." His reward: $750,000.
"... the average Joe isn’t as gullible as he once was and the personal savings rate remains high and is rising. Get out and buy something you don’t need, your kids can pay for their own education. If you really want to see people spend and invest there has to be some belief this won’t all end in tears."
The biggest question on all traders' minds will be whether the bear market short squeeze that sent the S&P higher by 130 points in 6 days, is finally over - with most global market rolling over and with US equity futures unable to find their solid early morning footing, it may finally be time to cash out of the bear market rally which so many predicted, and which GSBank yesterday may have top-ticked with perfection.
Volatility, loss of confidence and central bank impotence stalk the capital markets. Gold pulls back in an expected retrenchment. Equity markets are still digesting what the world looks like. Absence of a strong Chinese domestic economy. A developing economy losing its easy credit. Oil prices adjusting to demand levels indicative of economic activity and, most tragically, the continuing proxy wars fought in the middle east as warmongers continue to slaughter innocent civilians.