Markit

US Services PMI Bounces But Employment Hits 33-Month Lows

US Services PMI bounced in September (flash) to 51.9 - the highest since April, but a weaker expansion of new business had a negative impact on employment growth in September. Staffing levels continued to rise, but the latest increase was only slight and the slowest since March 2013. The rate of job creation has now eased in two consecutive months.

"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary came out on top fizzled, following news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "without putting the German carmaker out of business", while Iran's oil minister Zanganeh told reporters Iran is ununwilling to freeze output at current levels. Deutsche Bank dropped to a new all time low while its default risk hit fresh record highs.

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Deutsche Bank Stock Plunges To All Time Low After Merkel Rules Out State Bailout; Default Risk Surges

As reported over the weekend, in an unexpected announcement Angela Merkel announced that she has ruled out state aid for Deutsche Bank, and the market reaction has been swift and brutal, with the bank's shares tumbling to a new all time low, sliding more than 6% this morning to €10.70, as the company's default risk has soared higher and is now the widest name in the Markit iTraxx index.

Manufacturing PMI Slides As New Orders And "Subdued Domestic Demand" Weigh On Growth Hopes

The brief July spike hopes of a rebound are officially dashed on the rocks of reality as Markit's Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) print for September missed expectations of 52.0, dropping to 3mo lows at 51.4. New orders and inventories declined but payrolls picked up modestly despite lsowing output. As Markit noted, "softer new order gains... alongside reports of subdued domestic demand" are the main concern.

Global Central Bank-Driven Stock Rally Fizzles; Crude Rebounds On Saudi Oil Production Cut Report

Until minutes ago, this week's rebound in global equities appeared to be running out of steam as oil retreated from a two-week high and a dollar slide ended.  However, as noted just around 6am, Reuters reported, citing as it usually does various "anonymous sources", that in a radical departure from its long-held policy of not cutting production, Saudi Arabia was prepared to cut production on condition that Iran freezes output, which led to an instant spike in crude.

How Big An Impact Will A Rate Hike Have On Oil Prices?

Oil prices could be facing a significant jolt after Federal Chair Janet Yellen, in her annual speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming, said that the case to increase interest rates had strengthened. The extent of the jolt that may be felt is far from certain however.

Key Events In The Coming Central Bank-Dominated Week

Central banks will take center stage this week, with the Boj and Fed within hours of each other, then also the RBNZ and Norges all delivering policy decisions. Of the four however, the BoJ will likely steal the spotlight, especially as we expect no changes in policy from the other three.

"Global Market Rout" - Bond Selloff Snowballs Into Stock Liquidations On "Stimulus Pullback" Fears

With traders in the US arriving at their desks, the global selling appears to be accelerating and as Bloomberg notes, "a selloff in fixed income is starting to snowball into a global market rout" driven by what Reuters dubbed "growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning."

Four Scenarios For Oil Producers Ahead Of Algiers

After two years of a Saudi-led strategy of all-out pumping, adopted to protect market share against the surge in U.S. shale oil, OPEC and Russia are putting cooperation back on the table. As Bloomberg notes, their last attempt to do this - a proposal to freeze output in April - collapsed in acrimony because of rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. There may be four potential outcomes from the Algiers talks.

Services Economy Crashes To Feb 2010 Lows, Confirming Manufacturing Collapse

Following last week's disappointing Manufacturing ISM/PMI data, Services PMI printed a six-month-low 50.9 over the weekend "pointing to an annualised GDP growth rate of a mere 1%," according to Markit. Services jobs fell to their weakest since Dec 2014 but the ISM Services data collapsed to 51.4 - lowest since Feb 2010 with new orders imploding to their weakest since Jan 2014.

With US On Holiday, Global Stocks Rise As Dollar Sinks, While Fireworks Break Out In Crude

With the US taking the day off to celebrate the unofficial end of the summer, global markets have been relatively quiet, aside from the dramatic moves in the energy sector over the past few hours, where crude soared in early trading as reported previously on a much-hyped joint statement by the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia, only to see the spike fizzle.

August Payrolls Loom: Futures Flat, Dollar Rises, Treasuries Slip

The much anticipated payrolls day, expected to provide at least some more clarity on future Fed policy, has arrived and heading into today's report both price action and newsflow has been muted. U.S. equity index futures were fractionally higher, as European stocks rise 0.6% while Asia was flat. Gold fell as the dollar rose, while comments by Vladimir Putin which endorsed an OPEC oil production freeze while granting Iran an exemption, have pushed oil higher.