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Payrolls Preview: Goldman Expects Jobs Data To Disappoint

Despite much hopeful banter among the mainstream media, Goldman forecast nonfarm payroll job growth of 220k in June, notably below consensus expectations of 234k. This is roughly in line with Goldman's expectations for below average job growth over the remainder of 2015. Employment indicators were mixed in June: reported job availability, the employment components of most manufacturing surveys, and ADP employment growth improved, but jobless claims and job cuts both rose slightly and online job ads declined. Overall, the June data point to a gain below the very strong 280k increase in May.

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Non-Seasonally-Adjusted ISM Manufacturing Plunges To 2015 Lows As Production Tumbles

Following Construction Spending's exuberant 2.2% MoM surge in April (revised to 2.1), May saw a fall-back-to-earth 0.8% gain (still better than expected). However, while Markit's Manufacturing survey tumbled, ISM's rose in May and now in June picked up again to 53.5 - its highest since January. Employment rose notably but New orders were only marginally higher and Production slowed. Rather stunningly, all the improvment in ISM is seasonal adjustments with the non-seasonally-adjusted data at its lowest since January. The question remains, is this good news enough to warrant a September rate cut - if we ignore everything else that is weak?

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"Strong Fundamentals" Meme Destroyed As US Manufacturing PMI Slows To Its Weakest Since October 2013

US Manufacturing PMI's final print for June at 53.6 (slightly above its preliminary 53.4 print) is its lowest since October 2013. The survey has fallen almost non-stop since the end of QE3. Under the covers, data was mixed, softer output growth was offset by a slight pick-up in the pace of new business gains and job creation, but Manufacturers indicated a slowdown in production growth for the third month running during June. As Markit's echief economist notes, “Policymakers will be concerned about the unbalanced nature of growth, and in particular the loss of export and investment drivers, and will want to see growth pick up again in coming months before committing to higher interest rates.”

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Market Wrap: Greek "Capitulation" Optimism Sends Global Risk Higher After China Re-crashes

So much going on that by the time an article is prepared, everything has changed and it has to be scarpped. But, in any event, here is an attempt to summarize all that has happened in another turbulent overnight session.

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Collapsing CDS Market Will Lead To Global Bond Market Margin Call

As we previously noted, liquidity is there when you don't need it, and it promptly disappears once it is in demand. Consider it "cocktease capitalism." If liquidity lasts longer than 4 hours, call the CFTC because you may be experiencing a spoof. Right now, the ultimate spoof is setting up as the credit default swap market collapses, and a global bond market margin call is just around the corner.

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Fearing Government Scrutiny, HSBC Waves Goodbye To China PMI Sponsorship

"If you are a sizeable bank that wants to do more business in China you don't want to make parts of the Chinese government angry"...

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US Services PMI Misses By Most On Record, Tumbles To Lowest Since January

Missing by the most on record (as serial extrapolators expected a rise to 56.5), Markit US Services PMI (following weakness in the Manufacturing PMI) printed 54.8 - the lowest since the middle of weather carnage in January. As Markit notes, with the exceptions of the weather-related slowdown at the turn of the year and the 2013 government shutdown, June saw the weakest pace of economic growth since May 2013 as the Composite PMI slipped to 54.6 - its lowest since January 2015 (as employment tumbled and cost burdens surged the most since Oct 2013). As Markit conludes, hopes for a 3.00% growth are receding as "there has clearly been a loss of momentum in recent months."

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Investors Sue Wall Street, Markit For Conspiring To Monopolize CDS Market

With a DoJ probe having predictably gone nowhere, a group of pensioners and retirement funds are suing Wall Street and Markit for colluding to monopolize the CDS market. Amusingly, Citadel has been subpoenaed to discuss how it was shut out of creating a CDS trading platform by the "oligopolistic" activities of TBTF banks, even as the firm looks set to dominate the market for IR swaps.

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US Manufacturing PMI Slumps To Weakest Since Oct 2013

Having hovered at its lowest level since January 2014, Markit's US Manufacturing PMI slipped even further to 53.4 (against expectations of 54.1). This is the weakest since October 2013 and the biggest miss since August 2013. Stunned, Markit notes, "while the survey data points to the economy rebounding in the second quarter, the weak PMI number for June raises the possibility that we are seeing a loss of momentum heading into the third quarter;" which is odd because every talking head has been proclaiming everything is awesome, "while a September rise still looks likely, given the ongoing strength of the service sector, any further deterioration in the data are likely to push the first hike into next year."

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China Soars 7% Off The Lows, Global Stocks Continue Rising On Ongoing "Greek Deal Optimism"

Before taking a look at Europe, an update on China. Just a few short hours ago, when looking at the bursting of the Chinese bubble where stocks were down between 3% and 5% across the board in the first post-holiday trading session after the worst week in 7 years, we said that "without assistance (levitation) from the same PBOC that just clamped down on liquidity, the China bubble has burst." And then as if by request, minutes later we got, drumroll, levitation and the stickiest stick-save by the PBOC seen in months, when the Shanghai Composite staged an unprecedented 7% surge from the lows to close 2.2% higher after tumbling as much as 5% earlier in the session. And just like that, faith in the "wealth effect" is preserved.

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Frontrunning: June 5

  • Europe shares set for worst week of 2015 (Reuters)
  • Jobs Report Not Likely to Trigger June Rate Hike (Hilsenrath)
  • U.S. jobs market seen firming despite lackluster growth (Reuters)
  • Gross Says Bond Rout Scary as Hell Even Without Bear Market (BBG)
  • Apple Is the New Pimco, and Tim Cook Is the New King of Bonds (BBG), which ZH said in 2013
  • In 'year of Apple Pay', many top retailers remain skeptical (Reuters)
  • OPEC Nations Signal Few Prospects for Oil-Production Change (BBG)
  • China regulator says amending rules on margin trading, short selling  (Reuters)
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ISM Services Plunges To 13 Month Lows As Post-Weather Bounceback Fades

But the post-weather bounce? Markit's Services PMI in May missed expectations and dropped for the 2nd month in a row to its lowest since January. This notched the Composite PMI also down to its lowest since Jan, leaving Markit warning "the US economy has lost some momentum after an initial bounce-back from weather-related weakness at the start of the year." Worst still, ISM Services thenprinted a notably disappointing 55.7 (against 57.0 expectations) - its weakest since April 2014. The breakdown shows weakness across the board with prices rising. Finally, we note that an incredible 75 of 79 'qualified' economists had an ISM Services estimate that was too high... extrapolated hope springs eternal until it is smashed on the shores of reality.

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Futures Rise, Bund Rout Pauses On "Cautious Optimism" Ahead Of Greek Endgame

With the Greek IMF payment just 48 hours away, and Europe having submitted its best and final offer to Greece in a battle of "deal proposals", today Greek PM Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Juncker to discuss the recently submitted reform proposals by the Greek premier. However, a Greek government spokesman says that Greek PM Tsipras will not meet Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem despite several reports suggesting that they would do so later today. Last night it was reported that the EU, ECB, IMF agreed on terms for a cash-for-reform plan to be presented to Greece. However, a senior EU official has said that they are concerned that the stringent measures of the proposal could be met with rejection by Greece.

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