Markit

And The World's Most Volatile Currency Is...

A year ago it was the Ruble, but for much of the last year it is the South African Rand that has been the most volatile currency in the world. That is until the last week, as Turkey deals with rising domestic instability (and Erdogan's push for total rule), the Lira has become the world's most unstable currency...

Turkish Central Bank Intervenes To Halt Record Plunge In Lira

While the Turkish central bank's hand are largely tied as per Erdogan's decree that no rates are to be hiked, moments ago the monetary authority, faced with another record plunge in the currency, had no choice but to intervene when it cut FX RRRs by 50 bps, citing "unhealthy" price formation and said it would take additional measures if needed.

US Services Economy "Loses Momentum" As Inflationary Pressure Surges

While better than expectations, Markit Services PMI dropped to 3-month lows at 53.9 in December as input prices soared at the fastest rate since July 2015 "which could feed through to reduced consumption." ISM Services was flat at 57.2 in December, holding at 14-month highs from November, with employment declining despite rising new orders.

Risk On: 2017 Stock Rally Continues As Global Inflation Accelerates

Following another day of upbeat economic data, with growing signs that inflation on both sides of the Atlantic is accelerating, investors rediscovered their faith in the Trumpflation rally, pushing global stocks and US equity futures higher, fuelling a second day of 2017 equity gains ahead of today's release of the Fed's December minutes.

Stagflation Signs Build As US Manufacturing Surveys Hit 2-Year Highs

Despite the weakness in 'hard' industrial production data, US Manufacturing 'soft' survey data from ISM and Markit surged in November and December. PMI rose to 54.3 final for December - a 21-month high - with employment rising and inventory-building. However, stagflation concerns continue to build as new orders declined and input price inflation accelerated. ISM rose to its highest since Dec 2014 with prices paid soaring to the highest since June 2011.

2017 Starts Off With A Bang: US Futures, Oil Jump On Upbeat China Data; Europe Enters Bull Market

Rumors of the Trumpflation rally's death have been greatly exagerated, and not only is the Dow 20,000 back on the radar, following a 124 point surge in Dow futures, bringing the "key psychological level" back within 100 points, but European stocks rose for a third day and entered a bull market, rising 20% from theor lows set last February, following strong Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data.

As Cash Shortage Leads To Manufacturing Contraction, Economic Shockwaves, Indian Banks Slash Interest Rates

Indian banks announced sharp cuts to their lending rates after a recent surge in deposits, raising hopes that lower borrowing costs will help spark credit growth in Asia's third-largest economy, at the same time as the December PMI survey showed the first contraction in India's manufacturing sector in one year, raising doubts about the world's fastest growing economy.

European Stocks Greet The New Year By Rising To One Year Highs; Euro Slides

While most of the world is enjoying it last day off from the 2017 holiday transition, with Asia's major markets closed for the New Year holiday, along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the US and Canada across the Atlantic, European stocks climbed to their highest levels in over a year on Monday after the Markit PMI survey showed manufacturing production in the Eurozone rose to the highest level since April 2011.

Here Are The "Costanza Trades" Of 2017

Ask yourself; what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right, and then do the opposite.  Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio and we all know how consensus trades work out in this market.

Key Events In The Coming Pre-Holiday Week

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention.

US Manufacturing PMI Hits 21-Month High (Despite Plunge In Industrial Production)

After mixed PMIs from Europe overnight (German/Eurozone Services down, Manufacturing up), US Manufacturing PMI (soft survey) rose very modestly in its preliminary December print to 21-month highs, which is entirely decoupled from industrial production hard data declining. However, the 54.2 level disappointed relative to 54.5 expectations, with export sales close to stagnation, which contrasted with the modest growth seen on average in the second half of 2016.