Markit

It is the “Core of the Core” that now concerns us the most. That is where Federal Reserve (and global central bank) policies have left their greatest mark. It is at the “Core of the Core” where momentous misperceptions and market mispricing have become deeply entrenched. It’s the “Core of the Core” that has attracted enormous amounts of “money” over recent years. It’s also here where I believe leverage has quietly been used most aggressively. Over recent years it became one massive Crowded Trade. Now the sophisticated players must contemplate beating the unsuspecting public to the exits.

Following Noble Group's downgrade to junk and "Enron moment," we thought it worth considering who is next to be junked?

As goes US manufacturing, so goes US services. In a narrative-crushing print, US Services PMI dropped to 54.3 - the lowest since January 2015. Output and New business growth slumped to 11-month lows, optimism dropped, and input cost inflation continued to moderate as "suggests the pace of hiring has slowed since earlier in the year as businesses have become more cautious." Then, confirming  this plunge, ISM Services printed 55.3 - its lowest since March 2014 as unadjusted new orders collapsed to their lowest since February 2014.

Before we go into details of the overnight carnage, this is where we stand currently: S&P futures now down 33 points or 1.63% while 2Y Treasury rallies pushing its yield back below 1% as EU stocks extend their drop after China weakened its currency, North Korea says it tested a hydrogen bomb; Brent crude falls to lowest level since 2004.

• Global share market settles after stormy start to year (Reuters)
• Stocks Extend Losses as Yen, Gold Rise on Lingering China Unease (BBG)
• China battles to shore up stocks, yuan after globe-shaking slide (Reuters)
• Volkswagen faces billions in penalties as U.S. sues for environment violations (Reuters)
• Obama tightens gun rules, requires more background checks (Reuters)

Following China's disappointing drop in Manufacturing PMI overnight, this morning started off poorly with Canada's PMI crashing to its lowest reading since records began at 47.5. Then US Manufacturing PMI tumbled to 51.2 - its lowest print since October 2012 (with US factory orders collapsing to weakest since 2009). But The ISM Manufacturing crashed to 48.2 (deep in contraction) - the weakest level since June 2009, with employment bumping along at its lowest level since September 2009 and imports (reflecting domestic demand perhaps) crashed to levels only seen twice in 20 years.

It all started off relatively well: oil and US equity futures were buoyant on hopes Iran and Saudi Arabia would break out in a bloody conflict any minute boosting the net worth of shareholders of the military industrial complex, and then, out of nowhere, like a depressed China in a bull shop, the "mainland" crashed the party and it all well south very, very quickly...

Earlier in the session, after the surge in oil prices on fears of a spike in belligerence between Saudi Arabia and Iran, bulls were hopeful that after a poor close to 2015, at least the first trading day of 2016 would set a positive mood: after all, if there is one thing war is good for, it is to lift stock markets. And it did... for about 3 hours.  Then moments ago, Caixin Media and Markit Economics released the latest December PMI, which was, in a word, a total disaster, one which promptly sent US equity futures sliding, and the Shanghai Composite tumbling some 4%... and CSI-300 Limit down.

It becomes ever more tempting to conclude that the timing of the Fed’s rate hike was really quite odd, even from the perspective of the planners...

For the second time in two months, an economic data series that indicate drastically weak performance in China has been "suspended." Having seen Markit/Caixin's flash gauge of China's manufacturing discontinued in October (having plunged notably divergently from the government's official data), Bloomberg reports that the publishers of the alternative China Minxin PMI will stop updating the series to make a "major adjustment."

While correlation is not causation, one would have to be an ignorant unicorn-worshipper to believe that a collapse in America's manufacturing would not have some follow-through. Following the crash in Manufacturing, Markit reported America's Services economy massively missed expectations and plunged to 53.7, lowest since Dec 2014. New orders plunged to the lowest since January 2015 and employment tumbled. As Markit reports, this is "disappointing  news  for  an  economy which  has  seen the first  US  interest  rate  hike  for almost  a  decade."

Following the latest BOJ statement, the market found itself wrongfooted assuming the BOJ was actually launching another episode of easing, sending the USDJPY soaring, until suddenly the realization swept the market that not only was the incremental action not really material, but even Kuroda spoke shortly after the announcement, confirming that "today's decision wasn't additional easing." The result was one of the biggest FX headfakes in recent days, perhaps on par with that from December 4 when EUR shorts were crushed, as the biggest carry pair first soared then tumbled and since the Yen correlation drives so many risk assets, also pulled down not only Japanese stocks but US equity futures.

Following the collapse in industrial production, it is no surprise that Markit's Manufacturing PMI has plunged to 51.3, its lowest since October 2012. Under the surface it is a disaster with production volume growth the softest since October 2013, and new orders crashed to worst since September 2009. Finally, don't shurg this off, although manufacturing only accounts for around one-tenth of the economy, the Manufacturing PMI exhibits a high correlation of 77% with GDP as industrial activity has an important cyclical impact on other parts of the economy.

The day has come when the boxed-in Fed has no choice: with the vast majority of the market expecting a rate hike, Yellen has to deliver or suffer a crushing confidence blow like no other. And deliver she will, with expectations that said hike will be "as dovish as possible." For now however, the market is desperate to convince itself that just as more easing and more QE were bullish for the market, so rate hikes are just as bullish. Recall from late 2013: "tapering is not tightening," then the 2015 version of this refrain is "tightening is not tightening."

As of today, with Glencore stock once again trading near all time lows sliding as low at 75p, the company's default risk just hit 54%, the highest in 6 years, as a result of its CDS blowing out past 900 and wider than the intraday spreads hit in September as the following chart from Markit shows.