Markit

Euro Stocks Reverse Early Gains Dragged Lower By Slumping Banks; US Futures Flat; Crude Slides

Following last Friday's shocking weak US GDP print, Asian stocks jumped to an 11 month high on reduced prospects of a near-term rate hike, while the region also digested mostly encouraging in conflicting Chinese PMI data. European bank stocks initially rose following the release of the 2016 stress test then declined, tempering gains in global equity indexes, amid investor skepticism over the usefulness of stress-test results and weaker oil prices.

US Services Economy 'Bounce' Dies - PMI Tumbles To 5-Month Lows

Despite an excited bounce in US Manufacturing PMI's preliminary print (and ISM Services last month), Markit reports a disappointing drop in US Services to a 5-month low. New business slowed but that did not deter hope as business confidence rebounded (albeit from record lows). However, as Markit notes, "The U.S. service sector remained stuck in a low gear at the start of the third quarter of 2016..."

USDJPY Plunges On Japan Stimulus Concerns; US Futures Flat With As Fed Begins Meeting

In a turbulent session for FX, the Yen soared as much as 1.4%, the most in three weeks, after Finance Minister Aso says the government will "leave actual policy measures to BOJ", sending the Nikkei lower by 1.4%. European stocks and U.S. equity index futures are little changed despite the slide in the key carry pair as the Fed starts its two day meeting.

Key Events And Earnings In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include consumer confidence on Tuesday, the durable goods report on Wednesday, and the advance release of 2nd quarter GDP on Friday. The July FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. 197 S&P 500 companies are due to report (or 38% of the index market cap) with the notable names including Apple, Verizon, Facebook, Coca-Cola, Alphabet, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Pound Plummets On Renewed Recession Fears As PMI Shows Fastest Contraction Since 2009

Sterling plummeted nearly 200 pips this morning, after rising in early trade to just shy of 1.33, when the latest July Markit flash PMI surveys suggested the UK is heading for a quick recession in the form of a 0.4% GDP contraction in the third quarter. As Markit reported, "July saw a dramatic deterioration in the economy, with business activity slumping at the fastest rate since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009."

US Futures Rebound Despite Global Stock Weakness As USDJPY Ramps HIgher

After breaking a multi-year stretch of 9 daily record highs in the Dow Jones, overnight global markets saw some early weakness with Asian stocks retreating after BOJ chief Kuroda dashed hopes for so-called helicopter money, triggering yen’s steepest rally in a month and pulling the Nikkei lower by 1.1%. This however did not last long, and around the European open the traditional ramp in the USDJPY helped European equities shrug off early downside, while US equity futures have already recovered half of yesterday's losses.

Ackman Crushed: Herbalife Soars 14% After FTC Concludes "Not A Pyramid Scheme"

Two years after Bill Ackman unleashed the longest presentation in the world and battled Carl Icahn over his "take it to the grave" short position in Herbalife, it seems the hedge fund manager just got a death blow from The FTC: FTC SAID TO DETERMINE HERBALIFE IS NOT PYRAMID SCHEME, TO ANNOUNCE $200M SETTLEMENT TODAY: DJ And HLF is soaring 14% in the pre-market... well above Ackman's short entry level from July 2014.

"Rebound? What Rebound?" - Services Sector Business Confidence Hits Record Lows As ISM Surges To 7-Month Highs

Markit's Chris Williamson sums up today's Services sector data in three simple words - "Rebound? What Rebound?" With new business expanding at the fastest pace since January but business confidence plumbing record lows, there appears to be total confusion in the Services economy as today's PMI print at 51.4 offers little hope for Q2 GDP. So having said all that, ISM data hit and soared to 56.5 - the highest since Nov 2015 - beating expectations by 5 standard deviations and well above the highest forecast. All subcomponents improved aside from Prices Paid as it seems "baffle 'em with bullshit" economics is back.

"We've Never Had A Shock To The System Like This" - Global Selloff Accelerates On Brexit, Italy, "Unknown" Fears

The flight to safety following last week's quarter-end window dressing is accelerating, with constant news and flashing red headlines of record low yields across DM government bonds once the norm, and as of moments ago Denmark's 10Y bonds joined the exclusive club of sub-zero yields; gold has soared to fresh multi-year highs above $1,370, the risk-off currency, the Yen, soaring and sending the USDJPY just above 100, while sterling crashed overnight once again below 1.27, levels not seen since 1985.

US Manufacturing ISM Surges To 16-Month Highs (as Construction Spending Crashes)

US Manufacturing PMI fell back very modestly from its flash reading but rose MoM to 51.3 as Markit warns "producers are struggling in the face of the strong dollar, the energy sector decline and presidential election jitters." But, ISM Manufacturing surged full of hope to 53.2, above the highest analyst estimate (a 4 standard deviation beat of expectations). Every subcomponent rose aside from Prices Paid as it appears - as opposed to everything we have seen in earnings and chatter - that Brexit, election uncertainty has done nothing at all to dampen 'hope'. In the face of this seasionally-adjusted exuberance, construction spending has plunged almost 3% in the last 2 months - the biggest drop since Feb 2011.

Futures Stumble As Global Bond Yields Drop To All Time Lows, Precious Metals Spike

Whether it is due to the conclusion of quarter-end window dressing, or due to a more poor manufacturing data out of China overnight, but the new quarter is starting off poorly for risk with Europe flat and US equities lower, while the scramble for safety means that bond yields across the developed world just hit new all time lows as precious metals are surging once again on ongoing speculation central banks will do anything to keep markets propped up and buy up even more assets.

US Services Economy Disappoints As 'Optimism' Plunges To Record Lows

The June flash Services PMI printed 51.3, flat to May but below 52.0 bounce expectations with both employment down (3rd monthly drop in a row to lowest since Dec 2014) and optimism tumbling - "service providers indicated another drop in confidence regarding the year-ahead business outlook, with the latest reading the weakest since the survey began in late-2009."

Key Events In The Coming Week: All About Brexit

With global markets gyrating on every piece of news surrounding the Brexit drama, what’s the timetable for UK-related (and all other macro) events this week and beyond?