Markit

Key Events In The Coming Week

Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

Global Stocks Jump On Mega Merger Monday, Buoyed By Earnings, PMIs, Politics

Global stocks jumped around the globe, with Europe's Stoxx 600 and US equity futures rising more than 0.5% on a surge in merger announcements over the weekend including the $85 billion mega takeout of AT&T for Time Warner, the $6.4 billion acquisition of B/E Aerospace by Rockwell Collins, the $2.7 billion deal targeting Genworth by China Oceanwide and the just announced $4 billion purchase of Scotttrade by Ameritrade.

European, EM Stocks Slide On ECB Taper Concerns; US Futures Flat

With China on holiday, overnight sessions remain relatively quiet: at this moment, S&P500 futures are little changed as European stocks fall for first day in seven, on yesterday's concern that the ECB is moving toward tightening monetary policy; Asian indices rose slightly for third day. WTI climbs to $49.40, the highest since June 30 after yesterday's surprisingly large API crude draw report.

US Manufacturing "Slowed To A Crawl" In September As New Orders Hit 9-Month Lows

Despite the weakest new orders in 9 months, Markit US Manufacturing PMI managed a slightly better than expected 51.5 final print for September (still 3mo lows). Ironically, ISM data bounced perfectly to 51.5 also, after tumbling to 49.4 in August. New orders bounced in ISM data as did production, the opposite of PMI data, but as Market concluded, "Manufacturing growth slowed to a crawl in September, suggesting the economy is stuck in a soft-patch."

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

Politics will continue to be in focus as US elections draw closer, with attention on post-debate polling numbers high. However, this week should see a pivot toward data with markets looking for evidence of the summer wobble in activity data reversing. In the US the main focus will be the NFP and ISM reports.

Futures Flat With Germany Closed; Sterling Slides On "Hard Brexit" Fears

With China, German and South Korea closed for holiday, it has been a relatively quiet day in overnight equity trading, especially in the one stock everyone is keeping a close eye on, Deutsche Bank, whose ADRs are trading fractionally lower, down under 1% in premarket trading. Cable plunged on "Hard Brexit" fears sending the FTSE100 to fresh 16 month highs.

US Services PMI Bounces But Employment Hits 33-Month Lows

US Services PMI bounced in September (flash) to 51.9 - the highest since April, but a weaker expansion of new business had a negative impact on employment growth in September. Staffing levels continued to rise, but the latest increase was only slight and the slowest since March 2013. The rate of job creation has now eased in two consecutive months.

"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary came out on top fizzled, following news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "without putting the German carmaker out of business", while Iran's oil minister Zanganeh told reporters Iran is ununwilling to freeze output at current levels. Deutsche Bank dropped to a new all time low while its default risk hit fresh record highs.

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Deutsche Bank Stock Plunges To All Time Low After Merkel Rules Out State Bailout; Default Risk Surges

As reported over the weekend, in an unexpected announcement Angela Merkel announced that she has ruled out state aid for Deutsche Bank, and the market reaction has been swift and brutal, with the bank's shares tumbling to a new all time low, sliding more than 6% this morning to €10.70, as the company's default risk has soared higher and is now the widest name in the Markit iTraxx index.

Manufacturing PMI Slides As New Orders And "Subdued Domestic Demand" Weigh On Growth Hopes

The brief July spike hopes of a rebound are officially dashed on the rocks of reality as Markit's Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) print for September missed expectations of 52.0, dropping to 3mo lows at 51.4. New orders and inventories declined but payrolls picked up modestly despite lsowing output. As Markit noted, "softer new order gains... alongside reports of subdued domestic demand" are the main concern.

Global Central Bank-Driven Stock Rally Fizzles; Crude Rebounds On Saudi Oil Production Cut Report

Until minutes ago, this week's rebound in global equities appeared to be running out of steam as oil retreated from a two-week high and a dollar slide ended.  However, as noted just around 6am, Reuters reported, citing as it usually does various "anonymous sources", that in a radical departure from its long-held policy of not cutting production, Saudi Arabia was prepared to cut production on condition that Iran freezes output, which led to an instant spike in crude.

How Big An Impact Will A Rate Hike Have On Oil Prices?

Oil prices could be facing a significant jolt after Federal Chair Janet Yellen, in her annual speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming, said that the case to increase interest rates had strengthened. The extent of the jolt that may be felt is far from certain however.

Key Events In The Coming Central Bank-Dominated Week

Central banks will take center stage this week, with the Boj and Fed within hours of each other, then also the RBNZ and Norges all delivering policy decisions. Of the four however, the BoJ will likely steal the spotlight, especially as we expect no changes in policy from the other three.