"We have been warning that 2014 is the beginning of a new cycle that will see a highly unusual convergence between our domestic (civil unrest & revolution) data and our international war model. Both converge for the first time since the 1700s when there were US and French Revolutions and the fall of monarchy." The civil unrest will develop first outside the USA and turn up more aggressively in the USA after Q3 2015. Nonetheless, it still begins in 2014 for the USA as well. We are starting to see this in the West where memories of previous events still linger deep wounds from 1992.
Martin Armstrong "It's Not the Rich – It's The Total Cost Of Government That Is Killing The Economy"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/14/2014 18:15 -0400
"It is not what an individual needs that is the issue. Take all the money away from Bill Gates. How will this improve your life at all? The issue is how much is government consuming. But as long as they point to the 'rich' they get to waste your money.
The solution is not to raise taxes on the rich, for government will still spend more than it takes in regardless of who pays... It is taxes that we must address – not how much someone else makes."
This week the state legislature of Michigan became the 34th state to demand a “Constitutional Convention” in the United States. Pursuant to Article 5 of the US Constitution, if 2/3rds of the states call for such a convention, (meaning 34 states) it must take place. In such a convention, the entire Constitution is subject to review and can be altered and changed.
This is no plain modern event with civil unrest erupting because of an interconnected world. These are grassroots uprisings cross-fertilized perhaps from a world contagion yet they often have similarities – corrupt governments. Turkey, Ukraine, Thailand, Venezuela and Bosnia-Herzegovina are all middle-income democracies with elected leaders besieged by people angry at misgovernment, corruption and economic sclerosis. These days it is no longer just dictators who have something to fear from the crowd. This is the promise of Marxism that centralized planning and false promises are coming home and governments are too corrupt and incompetent to deliver what they have claimed for decades.
Does anything about 2014 remind you of 2008? The long lists of visible stress in the global financial system and the almost laughably hollow assurances that there are no bubbles, everything is under control, etc. etc. etc. certainly remind me of the late-2007-early 2008 period when the subprime mortgage meltdown was already visible and officialdom from Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan on down were mounting the bully pulpit at every opportunity to declare that there was no bubble in housing and the system was easily able to handle little things like defaulting mortgages. The party, once again, is clearly ending and raises the question: "If asset bubbles no longer boost full-time employment or incomes across the board, what is the broad-based, “social good” justification for inflating them?"
For Obama to claim that a public vote in Crimea would violate the Constitution of Ukraine and International Law is really just as absurd that the same argument put forth by Putin that nothing in Kiev was legal because it was not signed by Yanukovych. There should be a vote, but it should be monitored independently to ensure it is real. To argue that no state may move to secede from a federal government is ridiculous...
The bad feelings concerning Russia run deep in the Western parts of Ukraine (as they topple statues of Lenin in growing numbers) while in the East they see themselves much more as Russians. These feelings run very deep in the region and memories do not fade so easily as the mayor and police chief of Kerch vigorously defend the Ukrainian flag in the clip below - deep in the eastern Crimea region (that Russia has already suggested it is willing to go to war over). Russian President Vladimir Putin has now been placed in a very difficult position, as Martin Armstrong notes, the entire set of circumstances creates the image of events in Ukraine that have diminished the power of Russia, which is a matter of pride and the only stable resolution remains a split along the language faultline. The critical question then is - will Putin let it go?
Yulia Tymoshenko (Ukraine's "Iron Lady") Freed, Vows To "Run For President"; Addresses Protesters - Live FeedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2014 15:38 -0400
*TYMOSHENKO URGES PROTESTERS TO STAY IN INDEPENDENCE SQUARE "NOW UKRAINE IS A FREE UKRAINE:"
Yulia Tymoshenko was the heroine of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution in Ukraine. But, as DPA notes, the two-time former prime minister was convicted in 2011 of abuse of power in connection with a gas deal with Russia (detailed below). This morning she was freed from prison in Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine Saturday after parliament voted for her release...
*TYMOSHENKO LEAVES HOSPITAL WHERE SHE WAS UNDER GUARD;: WEBSITE
*UKRAINE'S TYMOSHENKO SAYS SHE WILL RUN FOR PRESIDENT: ITAR TASS
and is set to address the protesters in Independence Square... (full chronology below) The US welcomed her freedom and is "closely monitoring"; Russia is displeased blaming opposition for violence. Meanwhile,
- *UKRAINE EX-INT MIN ZAKHARCHENKO CAUGHT TRYING TO FLEE BY BORDER SERVICE: IFX
With 328 (of the 450 seats) voting in favor, the Ukraine parliament has agreed to removed President Viktor Yanukovych:
*UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT VOTES TO REMOVE PRESIDENT YANUKOVYCH
*UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT VOTES TO HOLD EARLY ELECTIONS ON MAY 25
“Yanukovych, in an illegal manner, removed himself from his constitutional duties,” Turchynov says in chamber before vote. The Russians are not at all happy with Siluanov exclaiming these actions "pose a direct threat to Ukraine's sovereignty and constitutional order." As Martin Armstri0g warns, the nation will survive divided for there is far too much resentment to simply put this all behind and walk forward. Divide Ukraine along the historical language faultline and there is a chance to calm things down. Otherwise, this will flare up and take others with it.
Society is about to turn decidedly against the Bankers
The Ukrainian health minister just state that at least 64 have died since February 18th; protesters claim the number is over 100 - either way, this is horrific (and we suspect, once the Olympics is over, will get worse). As Martin Armstrong outlines below, Ukraine is the pawn on the chessboard. The propaganda war is East v West.
WHITE HOUSE URGES UKRAINE PRESIDENT TO IMMEDIATELY WITHDRAW SECURITY FORCES FROM DOWNTOWN KIEV, RESOLVE CRISIS BY POLITICAL MEANS; 'OUTRAGED' BY ACTIONS OF UKRANIAN SECURITY FORCES
Ad Russia proclaims US/EU sanctions as "balckmail." However, those power plays are masking the core issue that began with the Orange Revolution – corruption. Armstrong warns that "Yanukovych is a dictator who will never leave office. It is simple as that. There will be no real elections again in Ukraine." This is starting to spiral down into a confrontation that the entire world cannot ignore.
Sadly, everything you need to know about the crisis in Ukraine in one worrisome map which summarizes all the relevant "red lines."
Just as we warned earlier, the stealing of the weapons cache and labeling of the break-away region as having undertaken "terrorist acts" has led to the military getting involved:
- *UKRAINE ARMY GIVEN POWER TO CHECK CIVILIAN VEHICLES
- *UKRAINE ARMY GIVEN POWER TO USE WEAPONS ON UKRAINIANS: MINISTRY
Under the "anti-terrorist" operation, Ukraine is a close to civil war as it has been so far. As Martin Armstrong concludes: "there is no peaceful resolution" no matter how many sanctions and condemnations the West makes.
Ukraine's Military Releases The Armored Vehicles And Fighter Jets; Independence Square Is In Flames - Live FeedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/18/2014 12:54 -0400
Independence Square Is Ablaze
Days after Kazakhstan broke out is tanks post-devaluation, the promise to "Restore order by all means envisaged" is under way in Ukraine as military vehicles are being mobilized into the city center. As Martin Armstrong so eloquently noted recently, "the Western powers represented by the EU and the US have nothing to stand on to protect Ukraine and can only offer lip-service at best. So once again, it appears that Ukraine is doomed and the best one can hope for there, is that Russia will allow the West to leave. The countdown goes forward and the political and economic crisis is indicative of what we see with the first shot across the bow in the rising trend of the Cycle of War." The US has 'demanded' an end to the violence...
The German high court has ruled that children MUST take care of their parents even if they have not spoken to them in 27 years.
The entire social contract is collapsing.
The historical norm of children taking care of their parents was displaced with the New Deal where government stepped in to provide the safety-net. Now the high court has ruled that it is the child’s responsibility. So what are all these taxes for?