Michael Cembalest

JPMorgan CIO Crushes Cameron's Scaremongery: Brexit "Hardly The Stuff Of Economic Calamity"

First The Telegraph, then The Sun, and today The Spectator all came out on the "Leave" side of the Brexit debate. However, perhaps even more shocking to the establishment is the CIO of a major bank's asset management arm dismissing the apparent carnage that Cameron, Obama, and Osborne have declared imminent, warning that, "many articles on the Brexit vote overstate its risks and consequences." As JPM's Michael Cembalest adds, the reality is "hardly the stuff that economic calamity is made of." As The Spectator concludes, "the history of the last two centuries can be summed up in two words: democracy matters."

State Of The States: New Jersey's Problems Are Not "Mathematically Solvable"

While the warning flags are raging in Illinois and Connecticut, JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest states that New Jersey's problems are "not mathematically solvable." The stunning admission from a status-quo-sustaining bank that is “very focused on the total indebtedness of US states," should be worrisome enough but as Cembalest explains the answer to a debt problem is not always piling up more debt - "when debt reaches a certain level, the can kicking is over and difficult decisions need to be made;" the issue is to address the root of the problem, which can be a delicate and at times politically incorrect topic.

The Cost Of Democratic Socialism (In 1 Stunning Chart)

With a growing number of Americans appearing willing to jump on the socialism-by-any-other-name bandwagon, JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest digs into the details of Bernie Sanders' tax proposals. As the following chart sums up so extremely, his plan would certainly represent a unique and unprecedented event in the history of US taxation, if it were enacted.

The Mood In Silicon Valley Is Like The "Moment After The Titanic Hit An Iceberg"

A year ago, startups with nascent business models were scoring billion-dollar valuations as investors raced each other to write checks. Today, venture capital is drying up for less successful startups.  Rory O’Driscoll, a partner with venture firm Scale Venture Partners, likens the mood today to the moment after the Titanic hit an iceberg. “No one wanted to jump into the lifeboats right away.”

It’s Not The Greeks Who Failed, It’s The EU

It’s important that we all, European or not, grasp how lacking in morality the entire system prevalent in the west, including the EU, has become. This shows in East Ukraine, where sheer propaganda has shaped opinions for at least a full year now. It’s not about what is real, it’s about what ‘leaders’ would like you to think and believe. And this same immorality has conquered Greece too; there may be no guns, but there are plenty victims. The EU is a disgrace, a predatory beast unleashed upon all corners of Europe that resist central control and, well, debt slavery really, if you live on the wrong side of the tracks. SYRIZA may be the last chance Europe has to right its wrongs, before fighting in the streets becomes an everyday reality.

Despite Record Highs, These 5 'People' Are Still Flipping Out

Despite the apparent economic and profit news improvements recently, JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest notes there are a few instances where people are still flipping out. It’s worth reviewing them, he suggests, as they're indicative of risks and opportunities in financial markets heading into 2015, and of the continued presence of central banks affecting asset prices.

Smart People Listen To Radiohead, Dumb People Listen To Beyoncé, Study Finds

Now you can substantiate to today’s generation why that '60s and '70s era’s music was objectively "better," as JPMorgan's CIO Michael Cembalest has previously noted, and furthermore, researchers also found that popular music has gotten a lot louder (as SAT scores have plunged.. hhmm?) However, as Consequence of Sound notes, a software application writer by the name of Virgil Griffith has charted musical tastes based on the average SAT scores of various college institutions... and the results are.. interesting. Bob Dylan, The Shins, Radiohead, and Counting Crows are the favorite bands of smart people. Meanwhile, Lil Wayne, Beyoncé, The Used, and gospel music comes in at the lower end of the spectrum — or, as Griffith puts it, is music for dumb people.

Do You Believe In Chinese Miracles? GDP, Industrial Production Beat; Retail Sales Miss

Whocouldanode? Chinese GDP managed (thanks to record-breaking credit creation and QE-lite) to beat expectations of +7.2% and come in at +7.3% (still its slowest growth since April 2009). Notably this was the biggest decoupling from Bloomberg's high-frequency economic data forecast (i.e. real data) since May 2010. Despite weakness in Cement and Steel output, Industrial Production also managed to beat and actually improve (another miracle). Retail Sales missed expectations, rose only 11.6% YoY - its weakest since Feb 2006. Initial kneejerk is a lift in USDJPY, AUDJPY, TSY yields, and S&P and NKY futures... but that has now faded...

Where Is Russia On The Road To Recreating USSR 2.0?

Given the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and escalating conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, JPMorgan asks, where is Russia on the road to recreating something like the Soviet Union as an economic, political and financial counterweight to the West?

JPMorgan's 16 Reasons Why The Fed Should Hike Rates (And 5 Excuses For Delaying)

Things are getting a bit hotter for the Federal Reserve regarding the tradeoff between growth and inflation, according to JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest. For the last few years, he notes, a zero rate policy was put on autopilot given excess labor and industrial capacity. Both are shrinking now, and when looking at a broad range of variables, some are clearly mid-cycle. If so, in a few months Fed governors will have to jump out of the 0% interest rate pot and remove some of the liquidity that it has infused into the US economy; and, Cembalest warns, despite today's jobs print, they may have to do so at a quicker pace than what markets are pricing in.

11.7% Of The World's At War: Global Geopolitical Risk Mapped

You can be forgiven for thinking that the world is a pretty terrible place right now, exclaims JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest. With 11.7% of the world's population currently at war (and a considerably larger percentage seemingly on the verge), it seemed an appropriate time to summarize the main geopolitical risk points in the world.

JPMorgan Explains: The Problem Is The Inexorable Rise In Entitlement Payments

As he visited clients around the nation, JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest noted a number of questions repeated... why can’t the US spend more on infrastructure? why can’t the US spend more on worker retraining? why is less money being spent on training, employment and related social services? why is energy spending falling? The answer, ne explains below, to all these questions is the same: these categories are declining since they are being squeezed out by the inexorable rise in entitlement payments.