• Pivotfarm
    04/18/2014 - 12:44
    Peering in from the outside or through the looking glass at what’s going down on the other side is always a distortion of reality. We sit here in the west looking at the development, the changes and...

Nancy Pelosi

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Paul "Contrafactual" Krugman: The Laureate Of Keynesian Babble





If you are not Professor Paul Krugman you probably agree that Washington has left no stone unturned on the Keynesian stimulus front since the crisis of September 2008. By the time the “taper” is over later this year (?) the Fed’s balance sheet will exceed $4.7 trillion - $4 trillion in new central bank liabilities in six years. All conjured out of thin air.  Professor Krugman proposing to “do something”... In short, Krugman wants to double-down on the lunacy we have already accomplished. Unfortunately, we are presently nigh onto “peak debt”; there is no “escape velocity” because the Fed’s credit channel is broken and done. Going forward, the American people will once again be required to live within their means, spending no more than they produce. By contrast, Professor Krugman’s destructive recipes are entirely the product of a countrafactual economic universe that does not actually exist. He wants us to borrow and print even more because our macro-economic bathtub is not yet full. And that part is true. It doesn’t even exist.

 

 


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Ukraine Aid Delayed Due To, What Else, Congressional Bickering





With Russia warning of "boomerangs" and China threatening "unforeseeable consequences" it appears gridlock in Washington is (coincidentally) enabling the US to sit out the first round of shenanigans responses over this weekend's Crimea referendum.

*KERRY SAYS `WE NEED AID FOR UKRAINE AND WE NEED IT NOW'

But as AP reports, Congress won't be able to authorize aid to Ukraine until after March 24 amid disagreements among several Republican. Simply put, No Aid For You...

 

 


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House Passes Clean Debt Ceiling 221-201 With Vast Majority Of Republicans Voting Against





The clean debt ceiling bill has just passed the House where it got the required majority in a 221 to 201 final vote, with just 28 Republicans voting Yea (and 199 voting Nay) - a vote that has made history with the fewest number of votes from a majority on a bill that passed the House since 1991. It also means means that with a Senate passage assured, the US can now spend away until March 15, 2015. The final breakdown:

  • GOP: Yea - 28; Nay -199
  • DEM: Yea - 193; Nay -2
  • Total: Yea - 221; Nay - 201

Considering that the vast majority of Republicans voted against John Boehner's latest "plan" to do the Democrats' work for them, and pass a clean debt ceiling, perhaps it is time to look for a speaker who represents the interests of more than just a tiny fraction of the party... and the Democrats of course.

 


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Sam Zell: Tom Perkins Was Right, Top 1% "Pummeled" For Political Convenience





"Markets were over-priced coming into 2014," warns Sam Zell (noting that he does not believe in the Fed's wealth effect perspective on market-growth helping buying and selling decisions in the real economy), but while he sees a benign outlook for residential real estate, among his biggest concerns are "half-assed" Obamacare's "deleterious effect on the USA" and its "need to be radically changed." Supportive of Carl Icahn and his 'capitalist activism', Zell adds rather frankly that he believes Tom Perkins was correct about the "the 1%... for political convenience," and reminds Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu that "the politics of envy, the politics of class warfare are what has separated America from many parts of the rest of the world," until now.

 


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In Terms of Real Stuff, The Dow's "New High" Is Pure Illusion





The rise in equities does not mean stocks "buy" more commodities in the real world - they buy less.

 


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Bipartisan Budget Deal Reached; No Extension Of Unemployment Benefits Means Unemployment Rate Set To... Plunge





Moments ago, news hit that democrat negotiators Patty Murray, and republican Paul Ryan reached a bipartisan deal to ease the automatic budget cuts by $60b. The deal calls for auctioning of govt airwaves, increased premiums for pensions backed by PBGC, a congressional aide told Bloomberg’s Heidi Przybyla. A press conference will be held at 6pm to unveil the bipartisan budget agreement, according to e-mailed statement. As a result, a January 15 government shutdown will be avoided. The agreement would require federal workers to contribute more to their pensions, increase premiums on companies whose pension plans are insured by the federal government and increase security fees paid by airline travelers.
And as a result of the implicit $5 billion a month fiscal boost, a near-term modest taper is now even more likely.

 


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Have We Lost Our Common Sense?





The only way to keep the status quo from imploding is to banish common-sense.

 


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With A Final 285-144 Vote, Mission "Raise The Debt Ceiling" Is Accomplished: See You All Again In February





And so, in the proverbial 11th hour, or technically 10th hour and 10th minute before the midnight of the X-Date, the House gets the necessary 216 votes to pass the Senate bill to raise the debt ceiling, and in a final 285-144 tally, in which 87 Republicans voted yea to 144 GOP noes as all 198 Democrats vote yea, has agreed to restore funding.  Next up: the BLS random number generator starts cranking again and informing everyone in just how sorry a state the economy finds itself, which of course is bullish for stocks because it means that the taper is indefinitely delayed, potentially until June 2014. Also next up, as the emergency Treasury measures are netted out against the new debt limit, it means that once the new Daily Treasury Statement hits, the total US Federal debt will be just at, or over $17 trillion. Rejoice.

 


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What The Three Month Can-Kicking "Deal" Looks Like





Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will soon announce an agreement to reopen the government and avert default on U.S. debt, Politico reports, according to several sources familiar with the talks. Here is what that "stunning reversal for the speaker" deal looks like. In short: the can has been kicked for three months, to early February.

 


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Stocks Surge As Algos Finally Catch Up With Six Hour Old News





Curious why algos suddenly are buying because other algos are buying because other algos are buying, pushing the S&P higher by 10 point in virtually no time? Simple. It appears at least one vacuum tube decided to scan the news archive, and fell upon the Politico story from 7 AM Eastern which said that the Republicans and Democrats had met in a secret meeting.

 


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David Stockman Explains The Keynesian State-Wreck Ahead - Sundown In America





David Stockman, author of The Great Deformation, summarizes the last quarter century thus: What has been growing is the wealth of the rich, the remit of the state, the girth of Wall Street, the debt burden of the people, the prosperity of the beltway and the sway of the three great branches of government - that is, the warfare state, the welfare state and the central bank...

What is flailing is the vast expanse of the Main Street economy where the great majority have experienced stagnant living standards, rising job insecurity, failure to accumulate material savings, rapidly approach old age and the certainty of a Hobbesian future where, inexorably, taxes will rise and social benefits will be cut...

He calls this condition "Sundown in America".

 


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House Republicans Plan To Link Debt-Limit And Shutdown Into One Fiscal Fight





Nancy Pelosi tried hard this evening (in the post WH meeting presser) to position the Democrats in order to disavow the inevitable but now Bloomberg is reporting that:

*HOUSE REPUBLICAN PLAN WOULD LINK SHUTDOWN, DEBT-LIMIT FIGHTS

House Republican leaders plan to bring up a measure to raise the U.S. debt-limit as soon as next week as part of a new attempt to force President Barack Obama to negotiate on the budget by merging the disputes over ending the government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling into one fiscal fight. This is not what most sell-side strategists expected as a base-case; in fact it is close to a worst-case for many - especially given Obama's apparent unwillingness to negotiate.

 


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6 Things To Ponder This Weekend (9/27/13)





Here are six things to ponder this weekend:

1. Inflation Debate Continues
2. The Obamacare Nightmare
3. The Disconnect Between "Main Street" and "Wall Street"
4. Payroll Number Become Even More Manipulated
5. Congress Living The High Life At The Taxpayers Expense
6. What If The "Fear Trade" Bubbles Up?

 


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