New Debt Issuance

Are Tax Cuts The Economic Growth 'Cure-All'?

"Will 'Trumponomics' change the course of the U.S. economy? I certainly hope so. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that such has ever been the case. As investors, we must understand the difference between a 'narrative-driven' advance and one driven by strengthening fundamentals. The first is short-term and leads to bad outcomes. The other isn’t, and doesn’t."

Risk-Ignorance Reaches 23 Year High As Short Interest Hits Record Low

Investors are willing to pay more for a given level of risk than at any time since 1994 and short interest has collapsed to record lows... "if The Fed follows through on its convictions, look for a flat yield curve and a recession to wipe out 50% of equity prices for the third time in the past seventeen years."

The Narrative Changes: Republicans "Pour Cold Water" On Trump's Massive Stimulus, Will Block Tax Cuts

Trump’s race to enact a "huge" stimulus went under a caution flag as Mitch McConnell warned he considers current levels of U.S. debt “dangerous”, and said he any tax overhaul should avoid adding to the deficit. "I think this level of national debt is dangerous and unacceptable." McConnell also poured cold water on the idea of a massive stimulus package, effectively laying out markers on taxes and spending.

Steven Mnuchin Roils Bond Markets With Suggestion Of 100 Year Treasury Bond

Barely having confirmed he will be Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin proceeded to roil the bond market when the former Goldman banker told CNBC he would look at extending the maturity of future Treasury issuance, hinting at 50 and 100 Year bonds, which promptly sent long-term US bond yields surging by the most since the turmoil following Trump’s election victory.

Doomed To Failure

In short, the U.S. economy may never reach “escape velocity” unless it is first allowed to crash.  It has been too larded up and larded over with debt for any real sustainable growth to take root.  More evidence, to this effect, was revealed this week.

Deutsche Bank Contagion: Nord LB, Lufthansa, Korean Air Pull Bond Deals

As noted earlier, the post-debate market relief rally has given way to concerns over banking woes, with stocks turning lower in Europe as focus returns to Deutsche Bank. More troubling is the overnight news that two German issuers - Nord LB and Lufthansa  - followed quickly by Korean Air Lines, have pulled their bond deal as "uncertainty on the credit front appears to be weighing" on the broader market.

"China Is A Monumental Doomsday Machine" Stockman Warns

China is a monumental doomsday machine that bears no more resemblance to anything that could be called stable, sustainable capitalism than did Lenin’s New Economic Policy of the early 1920s. The latter was followed by Stalin’s Gulag and it would be wise to learn the Chinese word for the same, and soon. These folks are on the deadliest strain of financial heroin known to mankind and have no chance of surviving; its a dead economy walking.

China's Latest Spinning Plate: 10 Trillion In Local Government Debt

China is in the midst of attempting to help local governments refinance a mountain of debt, some of which was accumulated off balance sheet via shadow banking conduits at relatively high rates. According to UBS, "Chinese domestic media are saying that the authorities are considering a Chinese "QE" with the central bank funding the purchase of RMB 10 trillion in local government debt."

And The Biggest Buyer Of Stocks In 2015 Will Be...

The stealth LBO of the S&P 500 will not only continue in 2015 but accelerate, with another 2% of the entire market cap converted into debt, thanks to a whopping $450 billion in net corporate inflows, $35 billion more than the $415 billion in corporate inflows in 2014.

Yen Surges After Japan FinMin Says Speed Of Yen Collapse Has Been Too Fast

First the Japanese central bank proceeds to monetize all new debt issuance and is on route to holding 50% of all 10 Year bond equivalents within 2 years, sending the Yen year plummeting to 7 years lows daily, and then - just like Europe - Japan gets cold feet and realizes that the next steps are USDJPY 145+, meaning a complete collapse of the Japanese economy and a full on FX, if not shooting, war in Asia. So what does Japan's finance minister Aso do? Why he talks the Yen higher, in the process completely confounding the FX algos, and risking a full blown collapse in the Nikkei just 3 weeks ahead of the Japanese snap elections.