Nielsen

Frontrunning: February 13

  • Comcast Agrees to Buy Time Warner Cable for $45.2 Billion (BBG)
  • Italian leadership squabble weighs as shares halt hot run (Reuters)
  • Russia says Syria aid draft could open door to military action (Reuters)
  • China trust assets rise 46% in 2013  (WSJ), China Trust Assets Surge to $1.8 Trillion Amid Default Risks  (BBG)
  • Australian Unemployment Jumps to 10-Year High (BBG)
  • Tea Party Scorns Republicans as House Lifts Debt Ceiling (BBG)
  • Peso plunge forces Argentine soya hoarding (FT)
  • BNP Paribas Net Falls After $1.1 Billion U.S. Legal Charge (BBG)
  • Hacking Joins Curriculum as Businesses Seek Cyber Skills (BBG)
  • Android's 'Open' System Has Limits (WSJ)
  • Blackstone-Fueled Single-Family Home Boom Lifts Chicago (BBG)

Frontrunning: February 10

  • Yellen's first test (Reuters)
  • Let weak banks die, says eurozone super-regulator (FT)
  • Yellen, Carney Face Explaining Policy as Benchmarks Near (BBG)
  • Commerzbank Said Seeking Debt Buyers in $6.8 Billion Spain Exit (BBG)
  • Junk Yield Premiums Soar on China’s Looming First Default (BBG)
  • Millions Trapped in Health-Law Coverage Gap (WSJ)
  • Mandel Tops Best-Earning Hedge Funds for Clients in 2013 (BBG)
  • Swiss Brace for Sour EU Relations After Immigration Vote (BBG)
  • Detroit Bankruptcy Talks to Resume (WSJ)

Frontrunning: February 4

  • Global makets plunge (Reuters)
  • Goodbye Mrs. Watanabe - Japan Sees Worst Developed-Stock Rout as Nikkei 225 Drops (BBG)
  • Who could have possibly predicted this - Firms Pinched by Pressure to Hold Down Their Prices (WSJ)
  • RBA Shifts to Neutral as It Signals Comfort With Aussie’s Level (BBG)
  • Fractures Emerge Between Obama, Congressional Democrats (WSJ)
  • Brazil suffers record trade deficit (FT)
  • El Salvador fisherman washes up in Marshall Islands after year adrift (Reuters)
  • Apple Quietly Builds New Networks (WSJ)
  • One-year prison sentence for 21-year-old Twitter user who glorified terrorists (El Pais)

And The Biggest "Winner" From The 2014 Emerging Market Crisis Is...

While the world may be reeling in the aftermath of a horrible week for markets, which following today's largely expected $10 billion additional taper announcement, is only set to get worse (because, oops, the global economy turned out to not be in escape velocity mode as everyone simply confused the artificial level of the S&P 500 with economic output, as usual), one entity is delighted by the recent surge in volatility and market uncertainty: CNBC.

Frontrunning: January 16

  • Charter, Comcast in renewed talks on Time Warner Cable bid (Reuters)
  • Bankers' Stock Awards Jet Higher (WSJ)
  • Yahoo CEO Mayer Dismisses Operating Chief De Castro (BBG)
  • Amazon Employees Vote to Reject Union (Reuters)
  • Luxury in China loses luster as wealthy flee (Reuters)
  • UnitedHealth Profit Up on Stronger Enrollments (WSJ)
  • U.S. government failed to secure Obamacare site: experts (Reuters)
  • Spain Sells Bonds at Record-Low Yield as Rajoy Touts Rebound (BBG)
  • Newport Beach’s $100,000 Lifeguards Feel Pension Squeeze (BBG)
  • Bailed-Out Euro Nations Expect Painful Challenges to Remain (BBG)

Goldman Downgrades US Equities To "Underweight", Sees Risk Of 10% Drawdown

"We downgrade the US equity market to underweight relative to other equity markets over 3 months following strong performance. Our broader asset allocation is unchanged and so are almost all our forecasts. Since our last GOAL report, we have rolled our oil forecast forward in time to lower levels along our longstanding profile of declining prices. We have also lowered the near-term forecast for equities in Asia ex-Japan slightly. Near-term risks have declined as the US fiscal and monetary outlook has become clearer. Over 3 months our conviction in equities is now much lower as the run-up in prices leaves less room for unexpected events.... Our US strategists have also noted the risk of a 10% drawdown in 2014 following a large and low volatility rally in 2013 that may create a more attractive entry point later this year."

Revolving Door 2014: Former Head Of The FCC Joins Carlyle

There is no quicker route to success in the USSA than to go into “public service” regulating a massive industry and then flip back over to engage in M&A in the exact industry you were in charge of regulating.

Frontrunning: December 16

  • Tough Question for Fed: Time to Act? (Hilsenrath )
  • Merkel Begins Third Term Strengthened by SPD Partner Backing (BBG)
  • Wary of Roma, Europe cold-shoulders its new eastern workmates (Reuters)
  • New Medicines Emerge, but Few Blockbusters (WSJ)
  • SIP in the crosshairs: U.S. Exchanges Near Deal for Infrastructure Upgrade (WSJ)
  • Secret Inside BofA Office of CEO Stymied Needy Homeowners (BBG)
  • AIG Said to Near Sale of Plane Unit to AerCap (BBG)
  • Inside the Saudi 9/11 coverup (NYPost)
  • Russian Bank Chief Weighs Firings as Costs Absorb Revenue (BBG)
  • Video Boom Forces Verizon to Upgrade Network (WSJ)
  • Chinese Manufacturing Slows (AP)

Frontrunning: December 11

  • Wall Street Exhales as Volcker Rule Seen Sparing Market-Making (Bloomberg)
  • GM to End Manufacturing Down Under, Citing Costs (WSJ)
  • U.S. budget deal could usher in new era of cooperation (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Police Back Off After Failing to Stop Protest (WSJ)
  • First Walmart, now Costco misses (AP)
  • Dan Fuss Joins Bill Gross Shunning Long-Term Debt Before Taper (BBG)
  • China New Yuan Loans Higher Than Expected (WSJ)
  • China bitcoin arbitrage ends as traders work around capital controls (Reuters)
  • Blackstone’s Hilton Joins Ranks of Biggest Deal Paydays (BBG)

Black Friday Sales Tumble 13% On Thanksgiving Thursday Opening Scramble

If somehow the scramble to open stores earlier and earlier on Thanksgiving day, until such time as the very Thanksgiving dinner had to be interrupted early for the annual rush out to the (un)friendly neighborhood Thug-Mart (Toys'R'Us opened at a ridiculous 5pm on Thanksgiving day) and punching people in the face just to get that 42 inch, 2010-model Plasma TV for $99, was supposed to boost overall sales instead of merely pulling them forward (see cash for clunkers), it didn't work. According to ShopperTrak, total Black Friday traffic plunged 11% and total sales fell 13.2%, the second consecutive year of declines following last year's 1.8%. The reason, as largely expected, is that a substantial portion of Friday shopping was pulled back to Thursday: as ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said, "if retailers continue to promote Thanksgiving as the start of the holiday buying season, he thinks the holiday will eventually surpass Black Friday in sales. "We're just taking Black Friday sales and spreading them across a larger number of days," Martin said."

Frontrunning: November 22

  • Wonder why: JPMorgan plans to keep pay roughly flat from last year (Reuters) - maybe this: Charles Schwab Warns "We Are In A Manipulated Market"
  • Democrats overturn filibuster rule, increasing Obama’s power (FT)
  • Day JFK Died We Traded Through Tears as NYSE Shut (BBG)
  • When even dictators snub Obama - Afghanistan rejects U.S. call for quick security deal (Reuters)
  • Obama Plunges in Investor Poll as Stocks Make New Highs (BBG)
  • Iran, six powers struggle to overcome snags in nuclear talks (Reuters)
  • Derision for China’s ‘rejuvenation index’ (FT)
  • Bottom is in: Paulson Said to Inform Clients He Won’t Add More to Gold (BBG)
  • German business sentiment rebounds strongly (WSJ)
  • WTO on verge of global trade pact (FT)

Frontrunning: November 12

  • China Pledges Greater Role for Market in Economy (WSJ), China vows 'decisive' role for markets, results by 2020 (Reuters)
  • China expected to cut growth target to 7% (FT)
  • World Trade Center Tower Debuts in Manhattan Leasing Test (BBG)
  • Job Gap Widens in Uneven Recovery (WSJ)
  • Khamenei’s conglomerate thrived as sanctions squeezed Iran (Reuters)
  • Swiss referendum on wages of high earners stirs debate (FT)
  • Obama to Nominate Massad to Head CFTC (WSJ)
  • Japan readies additional $30 billion for Fukushima clean-up (Reuters)
  • Target Fills Its Cart With Amazon Ideas (WSJ)
  • Shadow banks reap Fed rate reward (FT)