• Tim Knight from...
    12/21/2014 - 09:37
    The five remaining equity bears on Earth are all saying the same thing: "We'll get 'em in 2015." To which I ask: why? What's going to change?

North Korea

Tyler Durden's picture

John Kerry's "Proof" Statement - Full Transcript





It seems clear that it is not "if" but "when" an attack takes place and as the following world-cloud confirms; the US "know"... as the strategy "better to ask for forgiveness than permission?" And that with the Russia meeting due next week, and a UN inspector report that appears pointless now that we have social media, that the attack will occur sooner rather than later...

 
Pivotfarm's picture

Syria: Over by Christmas or Voices from the Past?





French President François Hollande jumped straight in declaring in more Sarkozy-style fashion than ex-President Sarkozy himself that he would attack Syria. That was even before the UN investigators had been shot at by some unidentified people.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Syriana: Official Tells CNN US Could Strike Within Hours; Russia Warns Against Attack





 
Tyler Durden's picture

BreaKim Bad: 40-50% Of North Koreans Seriously Addicted To Meth





Perhaps in an effort to numb themselves of the daily grind of a delusional dictator amid widespread starvation, North Koreans have turned en masse to the 'bingdu' or ice. As the WSJ notes, a study in the Spring of 2013 found that "Almost every adult in that area (of North Korea) has experienced using ice and not just once," and the author noted that "at least 40% to 50% are seriously addicted to the drug." Unsurprisingly for the closed nation, there is no official data, but as poppy fields disappeared in the nation, meth dealers were quick to step in and 'Heisenberg' the people's needs. Now "doing ice is a social thing; it is a lot of fun," as the 'epidemic' has spread from mid-ranking officials and police officers in 2004-2008 to the general population of students and youth now.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Overnight Safety Bid For 10 Year TSYs Offsets USD Weakness, Keeps Futures Rangebound





Following yet another rout in Asia overnight, which since shifted over to Europe, US equity futures have stabilized as a result of a modest buying/short-covering spree in the 10 Year which after threatening to blow out in the 2.90% range and above, instead fell back to 2.81%. Yet algos appear confused by the seeming USD weakness in the past few hours (EURUSD just briefly rose over 1.34) and instead of ploughing head first into stock futures have only modestly bid them up and are keeping the DJIA futs just above the sacred to the vacuum tube world 15,000 mark. A lower USDJPY (heavily correlated to the ES) did not help, after it was pushed south by more comments out of Japan that a sales tax hike is inevitable which then also means a lower budget deficit, less monetization, less Japanese QE and all the other waterfall effect the US Fed is slogging through. Keep an eye on the 10 Year and on the USD: which signal wins out will determine whether equities rise or fall, and with speculation about what tomorrow's minutes bring rife, it is anybody's bet whether we get the 10th red close out of 12 in the S&P500.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Some Questions On "Confidence" From Howard Marks





Confidence leads to spending; spending strengthens the economy; and economic strength buttresses confidence. It’s a circular, self-fulfilling prophesy. Confidence can also fuel market movements. Belief that the price of an asset will rise causes people to buy the asset... making its price rise. This is another way in which confidence is self-fulfilling. But, of course, as Oak Tree Capital's Howard Marks points out, the confidence that underlies economic gains and price increases only has an impact as long as it exists. Once it dies, its effect turns out to be far from permanent. As the economist Herb Stein said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." This is certainly true for confidence and its influence. As far as confidence today, Marks notes significant uncertainty is one of the outstanding characteristics of today’s investing environment. It discourages optimism regarding the future and limits investors’ certainty that the future is knowable and controllable. In other words, it saps confidence. This is a major difference from conditions in the pre-crisis years. In fact, Marks warns he doesn't remember when his list of 'uncertainties' was this long...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

1994 Redux? "It's A Bear Market Waiting To Happen"





While many draw comparisons to 1994's Fed actions, rate rises, and the subsequent economic and equity market performance, UBS' commodity team examines the five main drivers of that mid-90s disinflationary boom and how (or if) they are applicable in the US' current new normal. Their findings "this may be a 1994 redux, but it ain't no 1995 replay," as they note, in fact, it's a bear market waiting to happen. Every one of these processes is deflationary, not disinflationary. And they are self reinforcing. And deflation, in direct contrast to disinflation, is very bad for asset prices (with a serious equity and credit bear-market). So just as we have noted previously any taper will likely eventually lead to an 'un-taper' reflation effort (which will see gold once again strengthen) along with the exposure of the fallacy that the Fed really has become.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 17





  • Bernanke Seeks to Divorce QE Tapering From Interest Rates (BBG)
  • China launches crackdown on pharmaceutical sector (Reuters)
  • Barclays, Traders Fined $487.9 Million by U.S. Regulator (BBG) - or a few days profit
  • Barclays to fight $453 million power fine in U.S. court (Reuters)
  • When an IPO fails, raise money privately: Ally Said to Weigh Raising $1 Billion to Pass Fed Stress Tests (BBG)
  • Bank of England signals retreat from quantitative easing (FT) ... Let's refresh on this headline in 6 months, shall we.
  • Russia's Putin puts U.S. ties above Snowden (Reuters)
  • Smartphone Upgrades Slow as 'Wow' Factor Fades (WSJ)
  • Snowden could leave Moscow airport in next few days (FT)
  • New Egypt government may promote welfare, not economic reform (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

And Just In Case Abenomics Fails...





Whether the Japanese government guessed that the 150% annualized surge in the nominal price of their stocks, or 30% devaluation was unsustainable is questionable, but it seems that 'Plan B' is being created. As The Diplomat notes, finding itself in an increasingly complex and hostile security environment, Japan has taken the first steps towards developing a pre-emptive first-strike capability. This is a controversial move in a region that remains wary of a potential return to Japanese militarism.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Futures Bid On Strong China PMI; Europe Markets Offered On Weak China PMI





Nothing like a solid dose of schizophrenia to start the week, following Chinese PMI news which showed that once again the Chinese economy was both contracting and expanding at the same time. Sure, one can justify it by saying HSBC looks at smaller companies while the official data tracks larger SMEs but the reality is that just like in the US, so China has learned when all else fails, baffle with BS is the best strategy. As a result the media is attributing he drop in European stocks to the weaker than expected China PMI, while the green prints in US futures are due to... stronger than expected China PMI. There were no split-personalities in Japan, however, where Mrs. Watanable's revulsion with recent euphoria led the Nikkei to tumble over 500 points, to closed down another 3.72%, and is now on the verge from a 20% bear market from its May 23 multi-year highs. The fact that the USDJPY reached within 3 pips of the Abenomics "fail" zone of USDJPY 100 didn't help overnight sentiment.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: May 28





  • ‘Cov-lite’ loans soar in dash for yield (FT)
  • Cambodian police clash with thousands of garment workers, 23 hurt (Reuters)
  • Obama Accepting Sequestration as Deficit Shrinks (BBG)
  • Having done nothing to restore confidence in a fragmented market, the SEC turns back to main street fraud (WSJ)
  • Europe's austerity-to-growth shift largely semantic (Reuters)
  • Germany thwarts EU in China solar fight (FT)
  • In EU-China dispute, Beijing warns of trade  (FT)
  • U.S. Oil Boom Divides OPEC (WSJ)
  • Record Cash Sent to Balanced Funds (BBG)
  • Hilsenrath: Fed Wrestles With Market Expectations About Pace of QE (WSJ)
  • Worse-Than-Cyprus Debt Load Means Caribbean Defaults to Moody’s (BBG)
  • States Raise College Budgets After Years of Deep Cuts (WSJ)
  • U.K. Banks Cut 189,000 With Employment at Nine-Year Low (BBG)
 
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