The disconnect between economic underpinnings, market internals and "bullish" investor optimism leaves many investors/advisors "mentally conflicted." If they "sell" too soon, they might miss a further advance in the market. But if they wait too long, well, they have lived through that scenario previously. This week's reading list is a smattering of conflicting views about the markets and the economy.
In the final act of what has become a modern Greek tragedy, lawmakers will now be forced to choose between "approving" what is effectively a German overthrow of the Greek government, or face the collapse of the banking system and an economic depression of unimaginable propotions.
A little over two years ago, in the middle of April 2013, there was a gold crash that came seemingly out of nowhere. Worse, for gold investors anyway, that crash was repeated just a few months later. Where gold had stood just shy of $1,800 an ounce at the start of QE3, those cascades had brought the metal price down to just $1,200. For many, especially orthodox economists, it heralded the end of the “fear trade” and meant, unambiguously, that the recovery had finally at long last arrived. However, gold price activity since QE3 has been a warning, and a big one, not cause for victory celebrations.
Having written for several years about precious metals, the massive threat to our financial security (from our own financial institutions), and why gold and silver represent our best protection from that threat; it’s easy to forget that there are readers who are new to this sector. For those readers; it is necessary to review the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Debt, Distraction, Currency Wars, Itchy Fingers
Billionaire Jeff Greene - who flew his wife, children and two nannies on a private jet plane to Davos for the week - has some words of wisdom for the average American: "America’s lifestyle expectations are far too high and need to be adjusted so we have less things and a smaller, better existence. We need to reinvent our whole system of life."
Nobel Prize Winning Economists, Federal Reserve Chair and Other Top Experts: War Is BAD for the Economy
Who Are the Worst Looters?
"I have zero doubt that Japan is about to get smacked in the mouth. And when that happens the monetary policy calculus in Japan... and the UK... and even the EU will take on a very different shape. The domestic political dictates may still overwhelm the international economic consequences of extraordinary monetary policy easing."
The global economy is like a jetliner that needs all of its engines operational to take off and steer clear of clouds and storms. Unfortunately, as Nouriel Roubini tells The Guardian, only one of its four engines is functioning properly: the Anglosphere (the United States and its close cousin, the United Kingdom). As Roubini continues, the question is whether and for how long the global economy can remain aloft on a single engine. Weakness in the rest of the world implies a stronger dollar, which will invariably weaken US growth. The deeper the slowdown in other countries and the higher the dollar rises, the less the US will be able to decouple from the funk everywhere else, even if domestic demand seems robust. But it's not just the rest of the world that is decoupling from US growth... as the following uncomfortable chart shows, so is a crucial pillar of monetary policy transmission, consumer wealth perception, and economic stability - the US housing market itself.
The European status quo and EU elites are becoming increasingly concerned by popular calls in Italy for Italy to leave the European Monetary Union and the euro "as soon as possible" and return to the lira.
After two years of Abenomics, Japan officially admitted it has entered a triple-dip recession. While people with a modicum of common sense warned this would happen long ago, it actually came as a surprise to traditionally trained economists: after all, a country whose economy collapsed under piecemeal episodes of "Abenomics" over the past three decades was supposed to, if only for those trained in the Keynesian school, promptly recover (even though its fundamental problem is not economic but demographic) when that which had failed for so long was applied in one shock episode. It didn't work. So now that Abenomics has officially failed in Japan (but will remain in place until Abe is ouster, either voluntarily as the local population has had enough of Japan's record inflation imports) what comes next? It is about to be tried in Europe of course
"October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” - Mark Twain
It remains a very good time to diversify with the price of gold near multi year lows and under valued & stocks, bonds & property looking very toppy. It is very reminiscent of 2005-2007 period. Fail to diversify, prepare to fail ...