Oklahoma

These Are Barclays' 13 Commodity "Black Swan Threats" For 2017

Beware the commodity "black swans" in 2017, at least according to Barclays. The British bank warns that raw materials markets from oil to metals face the a high likelihood of disruptions, which among, other include a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile, a trade war with China, more terrorism in Turkey, and even a Fukushima-type disaster in China.

2016: The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year

What a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year this has been. Endless wars. Toxic politics. Violence. Hunger. Police shootings. Mass shootings. Economic downturns. Political circuses. Senseless tragedies. Loss. Heartache. Intolerance. Prejudice. Hatred. Apathy. Meanness. Cruelty. Poverty. Inhumanity. Greed.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Who Won The 2016 Oil War?

Heading into the New Year with oil prices above US$50, both OPEC and the U.S. shale industry are claiming victory in the latest oil war battle - and both expect to benefit from higher prices, but there can really only be one winner here.

Frontrunning: December 15

  • Yellen, Trump on the Same Page, for Now (WSJ)
  • Bond Rout Deepens After Fed Move (WSJ)
  • Dollar Climbs to Strongest Since 2003 on Fed Path; Bonds Drop (BBG)
  • Trump’s $6 Billion Cabinet: Mostly Men, Mostly White and Not Much Government Experience (BBG)
  • Trump’s Foreign Partners Expect to Benefit (WSJ)

Has The Trumpian Revolution Begun?

“There is no global anthem, no global currency, no certificate of global citizenship,” said Trump in Cincinnati, “We pledge allegiance to one flag, and that flag is the American flag. From now on, it’s going to be America first. … We’re going to put ourselves first.”

Frontrunning: December 8

  • Draghi Expected to Lay Out Plans for More ECB Stimulus (WSJ)
  • Bonds Fall as Investors Turn Wary on ECB Stimulus; Euro Gains (BBG)
  • European Stock Traders Look to Draghi to Break Santa Curse  (BBG)
  • Trump to nominate Pruitt to lead U.S. environmental agency (Reuters)
  • Trump's choice of China envoy a positive sign for ties, Xinhua says (Reuters)
  • Syrian Rebels Pin Hopes on Trump (WSJ)