Payroll Data

Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality."

"Blunt Language" - Goldman Explains Why It Is So Confident The Fed Will Hike In Under 3 Weeks

"Nothing happens without a good reason in these speeches, especially as far as monetary policy signals are concerned. The phrasing “case…has strengthened” was blunt language for a Fed Chair, which would have been unnecessary if she was only trying to convey a general sense that rates would be moving higher over time. There are plenty of other opportunities to prepare markets for a move before the December meeting."

Payrolls Preview: Brace For Disappointment (But Expect The Fed To Shrug It Off)

August Non-farm Payrolls have been weaker than consensus expectations in each of the last 5 years and in 14 of the last 18 years of available data. However, with all eyes focused on how Janet will see it, Goldman notes that it is possible that Fed officials would look through moderate weakness given 1) the strength of the June/July payroll gain, 2) their sub-100k estimate of the “breakeven” payroll gain, and 3) the well-publicized tendency for weak first prints in August.

"Something Is Not Right"

Overall, the “mixed signals” backdrop that has been in evidence for quite some time continues to prevail. And yet, we can see that a number of data points remain quite weak or are deteriorating further (particularly RGPDI). Strong payrolls data are not a reliable indicator of future economic growth – and considering that money supply growth remains at more than 8% y/y, current economic data look actually exceptionally poor (normally more pronounced boom conditions would be expected). Any slowdown in credit growth will quickly sink the good ship US economy.

Why Japan's "Massive" ¥28 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Plan Was A Disappointment

Last week, when details of Japan's "massive" JPY28 trillion stimulus plan emerged, we pointed out the "minor" snag that assured the plan would be a disappointment: only about JPY7 trillion of this amount would be in the form of new spending. Overnight, Japan finally revealed the full plan, and as expected it was met with significant disappointment by the market, which sent the Yen soaring to new multi-week highs and saw Japanese bond yields surging .

Fear The No Fear

Don’t put on the “party hats” just yet...

The Bearish David Rosenberg Reemerges: "What If I Told You Employment Actually Declined 119,000 In June"

"When the Household survey is put on the same comparable footing as the payroll series (the payroll and population-concept adjusted number), employment fell 119,000 in June — again calling into question the veracity of the actual payroll report — and is down 517,000 through this span. The six-month trend has dipped below the zero-line and this has happened but two other times during this seven-year expansion."

"It's Time To Panic" - Albert Edwards Warns Recession Is Imminent

“Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the face.” This famous Mike Tyson quote spells out the outlook for investors in the years ahead according to SocGen's Albert Edwards, who warns that investors will not only be punched in the face, they will also get knocked to the floor and kicked repeatedly in the ribs.

Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects

Today's NFP report will be under intense scrutiny as it is the final jobs report before the June rate decision by the FOMC. The market has increased the probability of a hike at the June meeting significantly in recent weeks and a strong labour market will be critical to allow the Fed to proceed with a June or July "normalization."

Futures Flat, Gold Rises On Weaker Dollar As Traders Focus On OPEC, Payrolls

After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe.

Hillary Will Be The Least Of Your Worries - America Has Economic Diarrhea

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official recession arbiter, the US economy is currently at its fourth longest expansion in history. By the sheer nature of a capitalistic society with its inherent cyclicality it is a safe bet that a new economic recession will hit in the not too distant future. We have argued since June last year that the next recession is imminent and we now feel increasingly confident that our prediction will come true before November’s Presidential Election. Even mainstream forecasters seem to jump on the increasingly likely recession-bandwagon.

One Junk Bond Analyst's Catastrophic Forecast For What Is Coming

While not as quixotic as Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker piece on market-chasing cockroaches, BofA high yield analyst Michael Contopoulos has moved beyond merely bearish and is now outright catastrophic . That may be a little far fetched, but in his latest note - while he doesn't call rally chasers "cockroaches" (yet), he seems at a loss to explain the ongoing junk bond rally. His reasoning: fundamentals just keep getting worse by the day, while price action has completely disconnected from reality, and virtually nobody expects what is about to unfold in the junk bond space.