Payroll Data

Previewing The September "Hurricane-Disrupted" Jobs Report

Tomorrow's hurricane-affected September jobs report will be... confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and one optimistic forecaster going as high as 260,000.

August Payrolls Preview: Prepare For Disappointment

If there is one common theme across sellside previews of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls number, expected at 180K after a surprising jump to 209K in July, it is to brace for disappointment, or in Wall Street parlance, "downside risks."

Futures Flat As Payrolls Loom, Dollar Slide Continues

It took stocks only a few minute to "price in" the latest political shock out of Washington, with the Emini trading 0.07% higher this morning on news that Mueller now has a grand jury, while European and Asian shares are little changed as investors await the looming July jobs report.

Bond Rout Fades With Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls; Pound, Yen, Oil Tumble

S&P futures are little changed following yesterday's rout even as Asian and European markets continued selling; the pound slid on poor factory data, the yen tumbled after the BOJ intervened to stabilize the JGB bond market, precious metals flash crashed early in the session, while the selloff in oil accelerated despite yesterday's massive inventory draw, although at least yesterday's sharp bond tantrum has stabilized.

US Futures Rebound Sharply, Erase All Syrian Airstrike Losses

After initially tumbling in the aftermath of the U.S. missile attack on Syria which jolted financial markets, boosting haven assets and temporarily shifting investor focus from today's jobs data , S&P futures have managed to recoup all losses (the Nikkei closed up 0.4% after sliding earlier in the session), with Europe also just fractionally lower and climbing fast.

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

Payrolls Preview: Expect An Upside Surprise (Thanks To The Weather)

Despite ADP's blowout print this week, consensus January payrolls is 175k (somewhat below the 6- and 12-month averages), but Goldman Sachs expects a higher 200k print thanks to a combination of lower-than-usual year-end layoffs, favorable weather effects, and further improvement in labor market indicators.

Key Events In The Coming "Big Week" For The US

Markets will again zero in on the U.S. this week, and not just because of Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve meeting and nonfarm payrolls may set a clear direction for dollar and yields for the next few months. Other key releases include ISM, ADP, housing data, personal income & spending, vehicle sales and core PCE.