PE Multiple

"It Won't Be Long Now" - David Stockman Warns "Amazon Is The New Tech Crash"

"The Amazon business model is fatally flawed. It’s only a matter of the precise catalyst that will trigger the realization in the casino that this is another case of the proverbial naked emperor... I do not think AMZN is a freakish outlier. It’s actually the lens through which the entire stock market should be viewed because the whole enchilada is now in the grips of a pure mania."

The Witching Hour For US Stocks

When you layer on the current low volatility environment a scenario pops up: one with an equity market that very quietly returns 5-8% with very little price fluctuations.  Yes, in the past that scenario would pull investors into the fray and make for an artificially overvalued market, and then a fall. But the current crop of investors has been around for 3 notable bubble bursts: dot com, housing, and Financial Crisis. Will they get sucked in again?

"The Jinga's Up"

When valuations reach extremes, despite what the masses say, even greater fools run out.

Just Plain Pathetic

We are speaking, of course, of the Fed’s decision to punt yet again, and for a reason that is not mysterious at all. To wit, our financial rulers are petrified of a stock market hissy fit, and will go to any length of dissimulation and double-talk to avoid triggering a crash of the very bubbles their policies have inflated.

Morgan Stanley Throws In The Bearish Towel, Sees S&P At 2,300 On A 19x "Bull Case" PE Multiple

"We are raising our 12-month price targets for the S&P 500 – base case from 2200 to 2300, bear case from 1600 to 1800, and our bull case from 2400 to 2500... For the bull case, we are leaving our EPS essentially unchanged, moving the out year from $137.1 down to $136.5, but raising our bull case multiple from 18x to 19x, yielding our new 2500 bull case forecast."

The Apotheosis Of Bubble Finance - Folly Of The FANGs, Part 1

"The trouble is, financial prices cannot be falsified indefinitely. At length, they become the subject of a pure confidence game and the risk of shocks and black swans that even the central banks are unable to off-set. Then the day of reckoning arrives in traumatic and violent aspect."

On The Impossibility Of Helicopter Money And Why The Casino Will Crash

Will the boys and girls still in the casino after the current election gong show is over patiently wait for their next fix from a beltway governance process that is in sheer pandemonium and stalemate? We think the odds are between slim and none. As we indicated previously, if Trump is elected the fiscal process will lapse into confrontation and paralysis for an indefinite spell. And if Hillary is elected, the Republican House will become a killing field for almost anything she proposes, and most especially the rank Keynesian apostasy of outright and massive debt monetization...