PE Multiple

America Needs A Good, Old-Fashioned Economic Depression

A good, old-fashioned, pre-1929 depression (like the short-lived, eleven-month depression in 1920-1921, before the days of “modern” central banking and “enlightened” Keynesian intervention “cures”) is the only tonic that can clear out the malinvestment built up since the beginning of the fiat money era.

Here We Go Again - Stockman Warns Of August 2007 Redux

Nearly everywhere on the planet the giant financial bubbles created by the central banks during the last two decades are fracturing. The latest examples are the crashing bank stocks in Italy and elsewhere in Europe and the sudden trading suspensions by four UK commercial property funds. If this is beginning to sound like August 2007 that’s because it is. And the denials from the casino operators are coming in just as thick and fast.

Goldman Warns Of A Sharp Plunge In Stocks In "Next Few Months"

"Tactically, we continue to expect the market will experience a pullback of 5%-10% during the next few months before ending the year at 2100. Strategically, we expect a continuation of the range-bound market that has challenged investors for nearly two years. A maturing economic cycle with elevated valuations, decelerating buybacks, and growing political uncertainty provide the basis for potential market weakness in the second half."

Institutionalized Lying - Why Central Bankers Never See Bubbles

Every day there is more confirmation that the casino is an exceedingly dangerous place and that exposure to the stock, bond and related markets is to be avoided at all hazards. In essence the whole shebang is based on institutionalized lying, meaning that prouncements of central bankers, Wall Street brokers and big company executives are a tissue of misdirection, obfuscation and outright deceit. And they are self-reinforcing, too.

Janet's Jabbering Leaves Investors "On The Edge Of A Live Volcano"

The evidence that Yellen is clueless or a blatant liar is endless. The casino gamblers keep dancing on the edge of a live volcano in the belief that Yellen has their back. In fact, her statements this week prove once again that she is right there on the edge with them - jabbering incoherently. One of these days, even the silicon units in the casino will take notice. The dancing will then turn into diving for the doors.

Global Stocks Rise, Europe Rebounds As Oil Halts Decline

In a quiet start to the week following last week's surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.

"There Is No Word To Describe This" - The Energy Forward P/E Multipe Is Now Off The Charts

As of this moment, the forward P/E of the Energy sector is no longer "an absolutely ridiculous and mindblowing 23x".... it is, in fact, more than double that at 58.7x, which also happens to be more than four times higher than the 15 year average. There is no longer a word to describe the lunacy where the forward P/E multiple was literally "off the chart" until the Y-axis was doubled.

Janet Yellen: Monetary Arsonist - Armed, Dangerous And Lost

Simple Janet should have the decency to resign. The Fed’s craven decision last week to punt on interest rate normalization is not merely a reminder that she is clueless and gutless; we already knew that much. Given the overwhelming facts on the ground - 4.9% unemployment, 2.3% core CPI and a 23.7X PE multiple on the S&P 500 - her decision to “pause” after 87 months of ZIRP actually proves she is a blindfolded monetary arsonist - armed, dangerous and lost.

Here Comes The Big Flush - Recession Pending, Fed "Put" Ending

If it sounds like history repeating itself, it most surely is.  The coming recession will again obliterate the sell side hockey sticks, which this time started last spring at $135 per share for 2016 and are already being reduced at a lickety-split rate not seen since the fall of 2008. But this time there is one thing that decisively different, and it will make all the difference in the world. As will be reinforced once again by the post-meeting contretemps on Wednesday, the Fed has painted itself into a deathly corner and is utterly out of dry powder. It has nothing left but to hint at the prospect of negative interest rates. And that will be usher in its thundering demise.

The Price Isn't Right - How Central Banks Are Fixing To Ambush The Casino

Indeed, what party other than the BOJ could be buying negative coupon debt? The answer is exactly why the coming financial crash will be so severe and long-lasting. To wit, it is front-runners expecting to cop a capital gain, and then get out before the house of cards collapses. That’s what might otherwise be called an ambush. The trillions of speculator dollars crowded into trades of this type throughout the global financial markets will never get through the narrow door of liquidity that remains in the casinos. The dotcom and the post-Lehman meltdowns were only the rehearsal.

Apple, FANGs, & Monetary Fools

Eventually the prospect of recession that can’t be cured by the central bank printing presses will ignite sheer panic in the casino. Then the monetary fools running them will be reviled to the ends of the earth. But not before the lunatic 100X valuations of the FANGs implode like those of all the high flyers which have gone before. For the third time this century it is time to sell the bubble. Yes, do back up the trucks!

The Death Throes Of The Bull

Not only is the specter of recession growing more visible, but it is also attached to a truth that cannot be gainsaid. Namely, having stranded itself at the zero bound for an entire business cycle, the Fed is bereft of dry powder.

According To SocGen The Problem Is Not "China", It's This

"... after four long years without any profits growth, the risk is that MSCI World mean-reverts to its original 2011 PE multiple, which would imply a further 50% decline from here. Even decline back to average would imply a 15% drop."

Priced For Perfection - Why This Burrito Market Is Heading For A Fall

In March 2014 Wall Street’s ex-items S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2015 was about $133 per share; it ended up 20% lower at $106. Yet here they go again - the consensus for 2016 started out at $137 per share last spring, and is just now beginning to make its way back toward the high $120s. It is a barometer of the abject complacency and intellectual sloth that has descended on the casino owing to two decades of Fed coddling and seven year of free money for the carry trades. In the case of Chipotle, it was always just a burrito. In the case of the US and world economy and financial markets, it’s not even that.