Portugal

Broad European stocks are down over 4% in the last few days but that hides the carnage among the most exuberantly excited names on the way up.  Portugal, Spain, and Italy have been battered in the last few days (despite everyone explaining how Portugal is so small, contained etc..). Portuguese bond spreads spiked 25bps today as the central-bank-inspired coupling of sovereign-health and banking-system stability drag each other down (Spain and Italy jumped 9bps higher in risk). European bank stocks have cratered and are now negative year-to-date.

The PSI20 - Portugal's "Dow" - is down 22% from its exuberant early-year highs (when Europe was fixed). Who could have guessed that under the surface, nothing was fixed? We are sure the next few days will be full of reassurances from asset-gatherers and TV anchors proclaiming that "Portugal is a small country", "BES is contained", "Draghi's put will protect from any contagion." Now where have we heard that before.. and remember as Juncker told us, "when it gets serious, you have to lie."

But... but... the VIX said everything is ok, and European rates were the lowest they have been in centuries... How can something possibly go wrong?

It just did.

Remember when everyone ignored this story about Espirito Santo in May: "Portugal's Largest Bank "In Serious Financial Condition" Auditor Warns." Good times. Alas, one can only kick the can of Europe's banking sector insolvency so far before everything blows up in everyone''s face all over again and Draghi has to come out of his crypt and spook everyone that he will do "whatever it takes" to ignore reality and just pretend stuff is fixed which carries Europe over for a few more months before the whole charade has to be repeated.

• Espirito Santo Financial Suspends Shares, Bonds on ESI Exposure (BBG)
• Europe Stocks Drop for Fifth Day as Espirito Santo Sinks (BBG)
• Espirito Santo Creditors Doubt Containment on Missed Payment (BBG)
• French Stocks Seen Extending Losses on Economy Concern (BBG)
• Stocks Slide With Portugal Bonds as Yen Gains; Oil Drops (BBG)
• U.S. Probes Hacking of Government Computers at Personnel Agency (WSJ)... finds terabytes of porn 
• It's Congress' fault: Obama rejects criticism over border crisis (Reuters)
• Israel Mobilizes 20,000 Troops for Possible Gaza Invasion (BBG)
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Gold had strong chart resistance at $1,334/oz as this was the 61.8% retracement of the March to June retreat. Gold has now broken convincingly above resistance and the key 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages (see chart).

Brussels, we have a problem. As we warned 6 weeks ago, Espirito Santo International SA - is in a "serious financial condition" according to a central bank driven external audit by KPMG identified "irregularities in its accounts." Sure enough, the 'ponzi-like' maneuvers have left the bank unable to pay its bonds as Bloomberg reports bonds plunged to record lows after a parent company delayed payments on short-term notes. More importantly, given the divisively dependent nature of the domestic sovereign bond market (and hence the health of the EU) and its banking system, it is noteworthy that Portuguese bond risk has surged to 4 month highs with the biggest 2-day spike in a year. As one analyst noted, “The bigger question is whether the government will have to get involved,” leaving the EU taxpayer on the hook once again (for fear of M.A.D. threats) as most critically, it "will have to step in to prevent systemic repercussions?"

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European bank stocks are down over 6% in the last 3 days to 5 month lows - the biggest such drop in 13 months. The combination of Draghi's "no QE", Austrian bank contagion concerns, and rumors of German banks about to be 'BNP'd by US regulators has removed all the exuberant recovery chatter (confirmed by economic data itself collapsing too). Remember all those oh-so-positive PMIs? European peripheral bond spreads surged around 10bps and individual stock markets plunged (Portugal -3% today, Italy -2.5%, Spain -1.8%)

We live in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable, and people need to understand that the period of relative stability that we are enjoying right now is extremely vulnerable and will not last long. The following are 18 signs that the global economic crisis is accelerating as we enter the last half of 2014...

Forget Maradonna's "Hand Of God", and Luis Suarez' "Jaws Of Doom"; Goldman Sachs just issued their latest set of updated predictions for the FIFA World Cup and unleashed a "kiss of death" on USA. The bank (whose win rate on predictions so far has been a lowly 30%) forecast the odds of USA making it to the 2nd Round (the knockout stage) is 81.6% (with Portugal a lowly 5.3% likely). Given the variance of results so far, we hope they are right; but their odds seem a little long (and they have Belgium beating USA in the next round).

Ahead of tomorrow's make-or-break FIFA World Cup game against Portugal, the Ghana "Black Stars" are not happy. Amid controversy over match-fixing, the players have demanded that the World Cup appearance fees they are owed be paid; and as Bloomberg reports, "The players insisted that they will want physical cash." The Ghanaian government has chartered a plane and the dollars are on their way to Brazil. Perhaps the players want to invest it in the latest grand idea - Ghana's first hedge fund has just been launched (prepare for more emails).

With Germany taking a commanding (and somewhat shocking) 3-0 lead at half-time over European partners Portugal in the FIFA World Cup, the following image of the 'elites' enjoying the game could well be the analogy of the last few years...

The graph shows that the true wealth generators of the economy continue to struggle, and now face the prospect of having to pay for the snowballing government debts in the not so distant future. With limited access to funds and rising taxes and costs (with the notable exception of labor, which has its own circular implications), how can they generate enough growth to restore the country’s finances? Bond yields better stay at historical lows indeed.

First Italy, then Britain, and now Spain has decided that the key to reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio is not fiscal responsibility, growth, inflation, or restructuring but simply changing the denominator to better reflect reality - in other words, as El Pais reports, Spain is putting an official number on its sex trade and therefore juicing GDP. Prostitution, which is in legal limbo in Spain, is expected, according to revised figures released by the INE on Thursday Spanish GDP increases by between 2.7% and 4.5% after illegal activities such as prostitution, drug trafficking and smuggling are included. The Spanish government is undertaking a sexual services survey to better understand the industry...