Prudential

It's Time To Start Worrying About China Again

The central bank on Friday increased the interest rates on reverse repo by 10bp - the last time the PBOC raised OMO rates was more than two years ago in 2014. The PBOC also increased SLF rates, in what some have dubbed "the Most Important Unnoticed Global Event."

The Market Wizard's Wizard - An Interview With Jack Schwager

"...someone with a great risk-adjusted return might have employed a strategy of selling way out-of-the money puts on equities since late 2008. That strategy would have produced great return/risk performance, almost like a money machine, but the trouble is that type of strategy also embeds a large tail risk. So even though the track record of this strategy would show low volatility, there would be the risk of catastrophic losses... Ironically, many strategies with low volatility are the most susceptible to event risk.

Frontrunning: January 24

  • Dollar steadies after stumble, sterling rides out Brexit ruling (Reuters)
  • After U.S. exit, Asian nations try to save TPP trade deal (Reuters)
  • U.K. Court Rules Brexit Trigger Needs Parliamentary Vote (BBG)
  • Brexit plans unlikely to be slowed by Article 50 defeat (Reuters)
  • Health Secretary Nominee Proposed Bill Benefiting Puerto Rico Investments (WSJ)

Frontrunning: December 13

  • Trump Picks Exxon Chief for State Amid Concerns (Reuters)
  • Buoyant Markets Pose New Challenge for the Fed (WSJ)
  • Tweeter-in-Chief Trump Faces Test After Yellen’s Rate Decision (BBG)
  • Trump Dissing Daily Intelligence Briefing Worsens Rift With CIA (BBG)
  • SWIFT confirms new cyber thefts, hacking tactics (Reuters)

"Panicked" Citi Trader "Who Fired Off Repeated Sell Orders" Behind Pound Flash Crash

A probe into October’s sterling "flash crash" has focused on the Japanese trading operations of Citigroup, which fired off repeated sell orders that exacerbated the pound’s fall. One of the US bank’s traders "panicked" and placed multiple sell orders when the currency slumped in unusually fragile market conditions.

Frontrunning: December 5

  • Italy Sinks Into Political Limbo as Defeat Sweeps Renzi Away (BBG)
  • Investors Shrug Off Italy Referendum Result (WSJ); Markets Rise After Italy Turns Down Referendum (BBG)
  • Italy’s ‘No’ Poses Trouble for Eurozone (WSJ)
  • Oil tops $55 for first time in 16 months as OPEC deal fuels buying (Reuters)
  • Merkel regrets Renzi resignation but will work with new Italy government (Reuters)

RBS Tumbles After Failing BoE's "Toughest Ever Stress Test"

While the term 'stress test' has been applied almost mockingly to European and US banks in an effort to create confidence for investors (because if the government sees risks 'contained' then why worry), this morning's Bank of England stress test results highlighted "capital inadequacies" for three major UK banks. While Barclays and Standard Chartered fell short, it is taxpayer-owned Royal Bank of Scotland that is slumping on a need to cut costs, raise capital, and sell assets.

"Markets Are Grasping At Trump's Answer To The New Normal"

"Monetary policy is no longer what’s driving these moves. Increasingly, central banks see themselves in a defensive role, reacting rather than dictating trends. The greenback’s rally is already forcing Asian and Latin American central banks to protect their currencies. More such moves may be in the offing if dollar gains continue....  But for now, after growing weary of monetary-led slow growth, markets are grasping at Trump’s answer to the New Normal."

Frontrunning: October 27

  • Clinton Foundation’s Fundraisers Pressed Donors to Steer Business to Former President (WSJ)
  • Democrats ask judge to sanction Republicans over Trump (Reuters)
  • Inside the Trump Bunker, With 12 Days to Go (BBG)
  • U.K. Growth Shows an Economy Resilient to Brexit (BBG)
  • Qualcomm to buy NXP Semiconductors for about $47 billion including debt (Reuters)

Bank of England Asks UK Banks To Detail Their Exposure To Deutsche And Italian Banks

In what may or may not be a coincidence, just hours after Bloomberg reported that DB launched a probe into whether it "misstated" derivatives, moments ago the FT reported that the Bank of England is seeking details from large British banks on their current exposure to Deutsche Bank and some of the biggest Italian banks, including Monte dei Paschi, "amid mounting market jitters over the health of Europe’s financial sector."