Prudential

Frontrunning: February 27

  • Epic Oscars Mistake: Faye Dunaway, Warren Beatty Announce Wrong Best Picture Winner (Variety)
  • Oscar host Jimmy Kimmel turns Trump into recurrent punch line (Reuters)
  • After Mix-Up, Hollywood Searches for an Explanation (WSJ)
  • Trillions at Risk When Trump Speaks to Congress (BBG)
  • Bond Market Is Flashing Warning Signal on Trump Reflation Trade (WSJ)
  • Mexico Warns U.S. It'll Cut Off Nafta Talks If Tariffs Proposed (BBG)

Global Stocks Drop, Futures Flat; French Yields Slide As Political Jitters Subside

In a quiet night for markets, in which the top highlight was the Oscar's historic peddling of best picture "fake news" and where "millions" of Academy members seemingly voted illegally, European stocks were little changed after a selloff that pushed them to a two-week low, while the MSCI Asia index fells as Japan’s Topix dropped for third day. S&P futures were unchanged.

It's Time To Start Worrying About China Again

The central bank on Friday increased the interest rates on reverse repo by 10bp - the last time the PBOC raised OMO rates was more than two years ago in 2014. The PBOC also increased SLF rates, in what some have dubbed "the Most Important Unnoticed Global Event."

The Market Wizard's Wizard - An Interview With Jack Schwager

"...someone with a great risk-adjusted return might have employed a strategy of selling way out-of-the money puts on equities since late 2008. That strategy would have produced great return/risk performance, almost like a money machine, but the trouble is that type of strategy also embeds a large tail risk. So even though the track record of this strategy would show low volatility, there would be the risk of catastrophic losses... Ironically, many strategies with low volatility are the most susceptible to event risk.

Frontrunning: January 24

  • Dollar steadies after stumble, sterling rides out Brexit ruling (Reuters)
  • After U.S. exit, Asian nations try to save TPP trade deal (Reuters)
  • U.K. Court Rules Brexit Trigger Needs Parliamentary Vote (BBG)
  • Brexit plans unlikely to be slowed by Article 50 defeat (Reuters)
  • Health Secretary Nominee Proposed Bill Benefiting Puerto Rico Investments (WSJ)

Frontrunning: December 13

  • Trump Picks Exxon Chief for State Amid Concerns (Reuters)
  • Buoyant Markets Pose New Challenge for the Fed (WSJ)
  • Tweeter-in-Chief Trump Faces Test After Yellen’s Rate Decision (BBG)
  • Trump Dissing Daily Intelligence Briefing Worsens Rift With CIA (BBG)
  • SWIFT confirms new cyber thefts, hacking tactics (Reuters)

"Panicked" Citi Trader "Who Fired Off Repeated Sell Orders" Behind Pound Flash Crash

A probe into October’s sterling "flash crash" has focused on the Japanese trading operations of Citigroup, which fired off repeated sell orders that exacerbated the pound’s fall. One of the US bank’s traders "panicked" and placed multiple sell orders when the currency slumped in unusually fragile market conditions.