Risk-taking in financial markets has gone on for too long. And the illusion that markets will remain liquid under stress has been too pervasive. But the likelihood of turbulence will increase further if current extraordinary conditions are spun out. The more one stretches an elastic band, the more violently it snaps back. Restoring more normal conditions will also be essential for facing the next recession, which will no doubt materialise at some point. Of what use is a gun with no bullets left?
- Doubts over City of London’s “fintech” in age of cyber war - Thousands left in “financial limbo” after tech “error” - 600,000 RBS customer payments go "missing" in "system failure”
- Greek offer to creditors runs into angry backlash at home (Reuters)
- Tsipras Seeks to Stave Off Greek Defections Over Aid Plan (BBG)
- Austria finmin says no agreement on Greek proposals without concrete plan (Reuters)
- Another ELA raise, this time under €1 billion: ECB raises emergency funding for Greek banks (Reuters)
- Greek energy, foreign ministers divided on Russia gas deal (Reuters)
- China’s Plan for Local Debt Amounts to a Bailout (WSJ)
- Key Democratic senators back plan for trade legislation (Reuters)
- South Carolina Governor: Time to Furl Flag (WSJ)
U.S. President Barack Obama’s proposed ‘Trade’ deals are actually about whether the world is heading toward a dictatorial world government - a dictatorship by the hundred or so global super-rich who hold the controlling blocks of stock in the world’s largest international corporations - or else toward a democratic world government - which will be a global federation of free and independent states, much like the United States was at its founding, but global in extent. These are two opposite visions of world government; and Obama is clearly on the side of fascism, an international mega-corporate dictatorship... What’s at stake here is nothing less than whether the future of the United States, and perhaps even of the world, will be democracy, or else fascism.
- Greek PM sticks to hard line as contagion hits euro zone bonds (Reuters)
- Greek Deadlock Has Leader Hoping for Miracle to Avoid Default (BBG)
- Greek Showdown Puts Merkel's Teflon Legacy at Risk (BBG)
- Greek standoff saps Europe, dollar swings ahead of Fed (Reuters)
- Allianz Increased Holdings of Greek Debt as Its Largest Investor (BBG)
- French Bonds Infected as Greek Crisis Swells Euro-Region Spreads (BBG)
- Statoil to cut 1,500 more jobs as savings drive intensifies (FT)
- UnitedHealth, Anthem Seek to Buy Smaller Rivals (WSJ)
- Five Million Reasons Why China Could Go to War (BBG)
The financial world today is now an island on its own – separated from the real economy, as can be seen by the paradox of record high valuation in the stock market coinciding with record low inflation, employment , productivity and no hope. There is asset inflation, but deflation in the real economy. When the world has been this long at the zero-bound, the misallocation, the inability to reform, and a toolbox without new tools creates a mandate for change. "I expect stocks to trade sideways for the balance of 2015 and have now sold all my fixed income, increased my gold exposure, and I’m looking to buy mining companies and overall to increase my exposure to commodities beyond the normal allocation."
The first rule of “Project Bookend” is that you don’t talk about “Project Bookend.” In retrospect, maybe the first rule should have been “you don’t accidentally e-mail ‘Project Bookend’ to a news agency.”
According to Fitch, nearly 40% of credit in China is outside bank loans, meaning that between forced roll-overs, the practice of carrying channel loans as "investments" and "receivables", inconsistent application of loan classification norms, and the dramatic increase in off balance sheet financing, the 'real' ratio of non-performing loans to total loans is likey far higher than the headline number.
Putting Uber's latest valuation in perspective, according to CapIq there were just 95 companies in the S&P500 with a market cap over $50 billion, suggesting Uber which did not exist when Lehman filed for bankruptcy, now has a market capitalization greater than 80% of the S&P. Specifically, at a $50 billion valuation, Uber is more "valuable" than FedEx, Marck, Deutsche Bank, General Dynamics, Nissan, Time Warner, Yahoo, Credit Suisse, Heineken and many other companies.
- Full picture of Clinton charities' foreign government funding remains elusive (Reuters)
- Greece Readies for Another Week of Deadlines (BBG)
- Greece says deal will be 'difficult' at Eurogroup meeting (Reuters)
- Saudi Arabia’s Rulers Snub Arab Summit, Clouding U.S. Bid for Iran Deal (WSJ)
- Saudi Aramco Said to Plan Spending $80 Billion Overseas (BBG)
- The $900 Billion Influx That’s Wreaking Havoc in U.S. Bills (BBG)
- Cameron rules out another Scottish independence vote (Reuters)
- Banks Prep Defense for Anti-Wall Street Campaigns (WSJ)
The trio of macro-prudential policy, the onset and evolution of shadow banking, and the nebulous concept of financial stability may have become a toxic cocktail which can be instrumental in moving forward the Federal Reserve’s timeline for lift-off zero bound rates. The intuition here is stooped in concepts of volatility and how market structure evolution may contribute or detract from asset volatility. Volatility is the square root of time. Financial repression times time equals volatility. Financial repression and/or macro-prudential policy times time equals the inverse of financial stability. Financial stability inverted equals volatility squared.
Bank Of England Exposes US Cronyism: Questions Why Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Is Not Too Big To FailSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/20/2015 18:00 -0400
If you thought currency-wars were a problem, just wait until crony-wars begin. In a stunning show of disagreement among the omnipotent, The FT reports that a Freedom of Information Act request has confirmed The Bank of England wrote to US authorities seeking clarity about Berkshire’s absence from a provisional list of "systemically import" (Too Big To Fail) financial institutions (SIFIs). The US Treasury declined to comment...
The panic buying by China’s newly-minted, day trader hordes took a breather on Tuesday which we think presents as good an opportunity as any to assess what factors might intervene to derail the self-feeding margin madness that has Shanghai and Hong Kong partying like it’s 1999 on the Nasdaq.
“The biggest worry of the buy side around the world is that there has been a dramatic decline in liquidity from the sell side for many fixed income products,” Prudential's David Hunt tells Bloomberg, echoing Jamie Dimon and confirming what we've been shouting about for years.
"In some instances, malfunctioning algorithms have interfered with market functioning, inundating trading venues with message traffic or creating sharp, short-lived spikes in prices as a result of other algorithms responding to the initial erroneous order flow."... "If liquidity is as bad as it is now, what’s going to happen when things really get adverse?” said Richard Schlanger, who co-manages about $30 billion in bonds as vice president at Pioneer Investments in Boston.