- After big New York wins, Trump and Clinton cast themselves as inevitable (Reuters)
- Eastern States Take Turn in Presidential Primary Spotlight (WSJ)
- China's Stocks Tumble Most in Seven Weeks to Break Trading Calm (BBG)
- Oil falls on end to Kuwaiti strike, supply outlook (Reuters)
- Oil price's decline weighs on global stock markets (Reuters)
- Stocks up as investors look to end bruising week on a high (Reuters)
- Treasuries Set for Two-Week Gain; Greenspan Warns of Global Risk (BBG)
- Yellen, alongside Fed alum, says rate hikes on track (Reuters)
- Oil Prices Lifted by Fed Comments on U.S. Economy (WSJ)
- China says G20 summit should be about economics, not politics (Reuters)
- Cameron Accused of Hypocrisy for Stake in Father's Offshore Fund (BBG)
“The McKenzie study also noted that on average “analysts’ forecasts have been almost 100% too high” which leads investors to make much more aggressive bets on the financial markets. “
- Brussels Rocked by Deadly Attacks With Blasts at Airport, Subway (BBG)
- Death count climbs in Brussels blasts (Reuters)
- Europe on High Alert After Blasts in Belgium (WSJ)
- Brussels Phone Users Urged to Text Not Call as Networks Jammed (BBG)
- U.S. Embassy Urges Citizens in Brussels to Shelter in Place (BBG)
- Oil prices swept lower after Brussels blasts spook investors (Reuters)
Something "disturbing" has emerged for financial pundits whose only job is to appear on CNBC, Fox Business or Bloomberg TV and to present their recurring daily permabullish view while pocketing a commission in exchange for the (almost) free advertising: a proposal which would hold them accountable for their recommendations. The result: an industry-wide panic about a post "fiduciary rule" world in which talking heads on CNBC can't simply disappear for a few months after saying that "Bear Stearns is fine" days before the bank spontaneously combusts.
The biggest question on all traders' minds will be whether the bear market short squeeze that sent the S&P higher by 130 points in 6 days, is finally over - with most global market rolling over and with US equity futures unable to find their solid early morning footing, it may finally be time to cash out of the bear market rally which so many predicted, and which GSBank yesterday may have top-ticked with perfection.
Beware the "catastrophic gap between optimism and reality."
How overoptimistic are Wall Street forecasts year in and year out? On average, forecasts were wildly bullish, even with the gains in recent years with results no better than a coin toss as to whether the S&P came in above or below the average forecast. Nonetheless, every year had one thing in common: Not once did a consensus predict a down year.
After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day.
After a furious three day "dash for trash", no volume, no breadth, commodity-driven rally, even Santa is now exhausted and overnight US equity index futures were little changed with European and Asian shares mixed. The dollar has declines as gold, silver gain, with WTI initially continuing its recent meteoric rise (up over 8% in the past three days, nearly hitting $38), only to reverse and give up all overnight gains moments ago. Copper falls after Chinese stocks see a second day of weakness, down 0.7% while an unexpected tumble in the USDJPY to 7 weeks lows has dragged the Nikkei (-0.5%) and its futures down.
"The Cost Is Very High": Portugal Taxpayers Face €3 Billion Loss After Second Bank Bailout In 2 YearsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2015 16:12 -0400
Because the Novo Banco auction process went so smoothly, Portugal has decided to throw billions more in taxpayer dollars at a failed lender. This time it's Banif, which will be split into a "good" and "bad" bank just weeks ahead of new EU rules that would have seen uninsured depositors take a haircut as part of the wind down process.
- Obama in speech to nation vows to defeat 'new phase' of terrorist threat (Reuters)
- Clinton Urges Social-Media Intelligence Sharing in Terror Fight (WSJ)
- Obama urges tech, law enforcement to address social media used for plots (Reuters)
- NATO says won't send ground troops to fight IS (Reuters)
- Le Pen Scores Historic Victory in France's Regional Elections (BBG)
With Draghi's Friday comments, which as we noted previously were meant solely to push markets higher, taking place after both Europe and Asia closed for the week, today has been a session of catch up for both Asian and Europe, with Japan and China up 1% and 0.3% respectively, and Europe surging 1.4%, pushing government bond yields lower as the dollar resumes its climb on expectations that Draghi will jawbone the European currency lower once more, which in turn forced Goldman to announce two hours ago that it is "scaling back our expectation for Euro downside."
"This is legal?" Stephanie Ruhle on CDS after watching "The Big Short" (Bloomberg TV)
Good Thing Debt Doesn't Matter! </sarc>