Prudential

Goldman Finds That China's Debt Is Far Greater Than Anyone Thought

"The trend of China’s leverage has probably deteriorated faster than we previously thought... Compared to our previous estimates, the experience in 2015 suggests that the economy’s dependence on credit has deepened significantly and that it likely needs sizeable flow of credit on a persistent basis to maintain a stable level of growth...Such a scale of deterioration certainly increases our concerns about China’s underlying credit problems and sustainability risk. The possibility that there is such a large amount of shadow lending going on in the system... underscores the lack of visibility on where potential financial stress points may lie and how a possible contagion may play out."

Asia's Largest Commodity Trader Just Sold Stock At A 63% Discount

In the latest dramatic news to come out of a company that has been in an unexpained tailspin over the past month, moments ago Noble Energy, Asia's largest commodity trader, announced that it will offer 1 rights share for each existing share at 11 Singapore cents, a 63 percent discount from the close on Thursday, according to a statement on Friday.

Frontrunning: April 20

  • After big New York wins, Trump and Clinton cast themselves as inevitable (Reuters)
  • Eastern States Take Turn in Presidential Primary Spotlight (WSJ)
  • China's Stocks Tumble Most in Seven Weeks to Break Trading Calm (BBG)
  • Oil falls on end to Kuwaiti strike, supply outlook (Reuters)
  • Oil price's decline weighs on global stock markets (Reuters)

Frontrunning: April 8

  • Stocks up as investors look to end bruising week on a high (Reuters)
  • Treasuries Set for Two-Week Gain; Greenspan Warns of Global Risk (BBG)
  • Yellen, alongside Fed alum, says rate hikes on track (Reuters)
  • Oil Prices Lifted by Fed Comments on U.S. Economy (WSJ)
  • China says G20 summit should be about economics, not politics (Reuters)
  • Cameron Accused of Hypocrisy for Stake in Father's Offshore Fund (BBG)

3 Things: 80% Or Bust, Mind The Gap, It’s A Bunny

“The McKenzie study also noted that on average “analysts’ forecasts have been almost 100% too high” which leads investors to make much more aggressive bets on the financial markets. “

Frontrunning: March 22

  • Brussels Rocked by Deadly Attacks With Blasts at Airport, Subway (BBG)
  • Death count climbs in Brussels blasts (Reuters)
  • Europe on High Alert After Blasts in Belgium (WSJ)
  • Brussels Phone Users Urged to Text Not Call as Networks Jammed (BBG)
  • U.S. Embassy Urges Citizens in Brussels to Shelter in Place (BBG)
  • Oil prices swept lower after Brussels blasts spook investors (Reuters)

Is This The End Of CNBC As We Know It?

Something "disturbing" has emerged for financial pundits whose only job is to appear on CNBC, Fox Business or Bloomberg TV and to present their recurring daily permabullish view while pocketing a commission in exchange for the (almost) free advertising: a proposal which would hold them accountable for their recommendations. The result: an industry-wide panic about a post "fiduciary rule" world in which talking heads on CNBC can't simply disappear for a few months after saying that "Bear Stearns is fine" days before the bank spontaneously combusts.

Is The Short Squeeze Over? Global Rally Fizzles, Futures Lower

The biggest question on all traders' minds will be whether the bear market short squeeze that sent the S&P higher by 130 points in 6 days, is finally over - with most global market rolling over and with US equity futures unable to find their  solid early morning footing, it may finally be time to cash out of the bear market rally which so many predicted, and which GSBank yesterday may have top-ticked with perfection.

Proving Wall Street Strategists Are "Full Of Bull"

How overoptimistic are Wall Street forecasts year in and year out? On average, forecasts were wildly bullish, even with the gains in recent years with results no better than a coin toss as to whether the S&P came in above or below the average forecast. Nonetheless, every year had one thing in common: Not once did a consensus predict a down year.

Stocks Resume Rout After Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders

After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day. 

Global Stocks, Futures Flat As Santa Rally Runs Out Of Steam In Christmas Eve-Shortened Session

After a furious three day "dash for trash", no volume, no breadth, commodity-driven rally, even Santa is now exhausted and overnight US equity index futures were little changed with European and Asian shares mixed. The dollar has declines as gold, silver gain, with WTI initially continuing its recent meteoric rise (up over 8% in the past three days, nearly hitting $38), only to reverse and give up all overnight gains moments ago. Copper falls after Chinese stocks see a second day of weakness, down 0.7% while an unexpected tumble in the USDJPY to 7 weeks lows has dragged the Nikkei (-0.5%) and its futures down.