If an individual is “literally” burying cash in their backyard, then the discussion of the loss of purchasing power is appropriate. However, if cash is a “tactical” holding to avoid short-term destruction of capital, then the protection afforded outweighs the loss of purchasing power in the distant future.
We're accustomed to "rotation," the nice little game where bonds can be sold and the capital invested in real estate or stocks, or vice versa. We're less accustomed to all the conventional asset classes toppling like dominoes. Where do the fleeing trillions go when stocks, bonds and real estate are all going down in a chaotic sell-off?
The history of previous civilizations rising and eventually collapsing is well documented. Our current economy seems to be following a similar pattern... Our fundamental problem is the fact that neither high nor low energy prices are now able to keep the world economy operating as we would like it to operate.
"I remember the first time I ever saw a $100 bill. I was dumbfounded. It was more money than I had ever seen in my young life.... $100 could practically pay the rent in a lot of places back in the 80s. That’s obviously no longer the case...$100 simply isn’t the awe-inspiring symbol of wealth that it used to be. And that’s because of inflation."
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) committed a blunder when it issued a forecast for Venezuela’s end-of-year annual inflation rate. An inflation forecast in a country that is toying with hyperinflation is a mug’s game.
The price of Bitcoin seems to have briefly exceeded the price of gold for the first time this week; however, this comparison is completely arbitrary. Gold remains the only true global money with a size and volatility comparable to that of fiat currency.
The bedrock assumption of the Bull market is that corporate profits will keep rising indefinitely. Hiccups are allowed, but current stock market valuations are implicitly based on profits expanding. The fly in the ointment here is corporate profits have been stagnating since 2014.
"For 105 years, the Federal Reserve has exercised almost absolute and unquestioned authority over America’s monetary policy. The result has been a boom-and-bust business cycle, growth in government, increasing income inequality, and a loss of over 90% of the dollar’s purchasing power. No wonder almost 80% of Americans support Audit the Fed!"
While mortgage applications tumbled across the two-week holiday period - even seasonally-adjusted - it was the complete collapse in the refinancings that is most notable. Down over 60% since August, the refi index crashed over 22% over the xmas/new year period to its lowest since the post-Lehman collapse in Oct 2008.
It took a while, but the world are slowly coming to grips with the simple fact the Chinese miracle is built on a pile of debt with only an unconstrained printing press to support it. The danger is obviously that the political establishment in China will be in dire need to distract the hordes of angry masses that are about to lose their life savings.
We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.
Contrary to the popular way of thinking, the value of a paper dollar originates from its historical link to commodity money - which happens to be gold - and not government decree or social convention. Fiat money of the sort we use today could not and would not come about in a market setting.
If the "experts" were assessed on results, they'd all be fired. Eight years of failure and counterproductive consequences is enough to declare the "experts" are only "experts" in generating excuses and failed fixes to systemic ills.