• williambanzai7
    02/01/2015 - 16:08
    “Quarterbacks shouldn’t leave the pocket, because that’s where the money is. Every politician knows this.”--Jarod Kintz
  • Marc To Market
    02/01/2015 - 11:11
    A straight forward discussion of the factors driving the US dollar. 

Purchasing Power

Tyler Durden's picture

Swiss National Bank Scraps Hard Franc Ceiling, Replaces With Soft Ceiling Instead Local Press Reports





Three weeks ago, what the SNB really did was be the first developed central bank to admit defeat in the global currency wars, realizing that contrary to "popular" Magic Money Tree opinion, it does not have an infinite balance sheet. And now the time has come to pay the price for delaying reality by over three years. To many this was a welcome move as it means after several years of horrendous monetary policies, Switzerland has finally regained some monetary sense, and while the near-term economic (and stock market) pain may be acute, the long-term will be thankful. And then, earlier today, we read that the SNB didn't learn its lesson after all, and instead of a hard EURCHF 1.20 floor, it is now unofficially targeting an exchange rate of 1.05-1.10 per Euro, aka a "soft", kinda/sorta Swiss Franc cap, according to Schweiz am Sonntag.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"First The Deflation - Then The Inflation"





Again and again through history, first you have the massive deflation and then government is forced to debase the money supply that finally reverses the economy sending it into a inflationary spiral. The second phase is when gold will rise. But you first have the deflation (that we are seeing now) that reduces tax revenues and then you have the inflation set in motion by rising costs (waiting in the background).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Fed's Message, Simplified: Shortest FOMC Statement Since 2012





While the Fed is clearly hinting that lower crude inflation doesn't bother it because "recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power" and is generally more hawkish on the economy and the labor force, the clearest message from the Fed is simple: or so it would like to convey. At 569 this was the shortest FOMC statement since November 2012! Which can only mean one thing: an attempt at renormalization, if only for now.

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

US Companies Report, Imported Unemployment/Deflation Appear Eerily Similar to Great Depression: ALL OUT (Currency) WAR! pt 2.5





US earnings drop materially less than a week after the ECB fires its gun & competing nations only start to react - just like the reaction at the beginning of the Great Depression! Rememberr, this isn' even a shootout yet. Wait until next quarter when the US multinatonals report. Of course, by then it'll be ALL OUT WAR!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fear And Dread Of Deflation - The Keynesian Big Lie At Work





The fear of deflation has become the cornerstone of Keynesian economic thought. However, it is the height of hypocrisy that Keynesians use the specter of deflation to frighten us into believing we need to endlessly dilute the value of our currencies and take the rate on our savings to zero percent; but then, at the same time, take every data point that points to falling prices as another reason to be bullish on markets and the economy. Their mantras are: Lower commodity prices–a boost to the consumer, plunging interest rates–an increase in mortgage refinancing. How can Keynesians celebrate deflation, while at the same time use it to scare us into accepting ZIRP forever? The easy answer would be, they are, by definition, cheerleaders for the stock market...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

S&P Cuts Russia To Junk, Ruble Plunges To 6-Week Lows - Full Text





With the Ruble having plunged 3 handles today alone, it appears perhaps more than a few could see this coming...

  • RUSSIAN FEDERATION RATINGS CUT TO JUNK BY S&P
  • RUSSIAN FEDERATION CUT TO BB+ FROM BBB- BY S&P; OUTLOOK NEG

Putting it below investment grade for the first time in a decade. Of course, this happens just 6 days after the news first leaked that S&P would pay a $1.5 billion settlement to the US DoJ over downgrading America: one wonders just what else was in the small print?

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

Despite What You Don't Hear In The Media, It's ALL OUT (Currency) WAR! Pt. 1





Even if you think you know how competitive devaluation works, this primer is worth it because parts 2-4 of this series will blow your socks off leaving you wondering, "Damn, why didn't I tink of that?"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

De-Dollarization Complete: Iran Abandons US Dollar In Foreign Trade





Since last May (and likely long before) when the topic of "de-dollarization" was first uttered in official circles (and not just tin-foil-hat-wearing blogs), the rest of the world (un-isolated as they are) has been warming to the idea that perhaps - just perhaps - it is time to de-dollarize (more or less depending on the despotic region in question). From currency swap agreements to bi-lateral trade agreements to selling US Treasuries and greatly rotating USD reserves into gold, the world's nations (small and large) appear less and less comfortable holdings dollars in this tempestuous world. Among the supporters of that first "de-dollarization" meeting were China and Iran and while the former continues to work down its exposure, the latter - Iran, according to Tasnim news agency, has almost entirely eliminated USDollars from its reserves and is no longer using dollars in foreign trade. De-dollarization complete...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Lunatics Are Running the Asylum: Draghi’s Money Printing Bazooka





There is no reason to assume that this time will be different. These boom-bust sequences will continue until the economy is structurally undermined to such an extent that monetary intervention cannot even create the illusory prosperity of a capital-consuming boom anymore. The bankers applauding Draghi’s actions today will come to rue them tomorrow.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Now Begins The Greatest Heist Since Bernanke Bailed Out Wall Street In September 2008





There is virtually nothing which is on the level in today’s financial markets. According to the Fed’s PR firm, Hilsenramp & Blackstone, one quarter of the $7 trillion in bonds issued by euro zone government are trading at negative yields. And this drastic financial repression prevails across the yield curve, not just on the short end. Yes, the juxtaposition is entirely reasonable that a state drifting toward insolvency and/or ruinous taxation should be able to borrow 10-year money at 0.70%. That is, when the fix is in, the central bank printing press is open to buy, the apparatchiks are terrified and one of history’s greatest monetary charlatans is in charge - the speculators have nothing to do but harvest their haul. So now begins the greatest heist since Bernanke bailed out Wall Street in September 2008.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Truth About The Monetary Stimulus Illusion





Since its inception in 2008, easy monetary policy has created very few positive effects for the real economy — and has created considerable (and in some cases unforeseen) negative effects as well. The BIS warns of financial bubbles. While economic policymakers should take a closer look at Japan, China, and yes, the United States, when debating the limits of monetary stimulus and the dangerous nature of financial bubbles; sadly, the discussion is happening too late to be anything more than an intellectual exercise.

 
Sprott Money's picture

Precious Metals and the Fraud of ‘Capital Gains’





There are many ways in which our corrupt governments, and the Corporate media (which acts as their parrot) seek to undermine and persecute those who acquire and hold precious metals. Two of their most-loathsome habits concern precious metals and taxation.

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

America's Ultra Luxury Housing Bubble Has Burst: "Deals Have Slowed To A Trickle"





As we further showed, the bulk of foreign demand for New York's most expensive properties, originated in China, Russia and various other oligarch-controlled nations, where the impetus to launder illegally obtained hot money meant an impulse to buy US real estate sight unseen and virtually at any price. And all of it, of course, all cash. No mortgages.  That onslaught of foreign oligarch demand is ending, and with it so is the bubble that luxurious New York real estate found itself in on the back of some $12 trillion in central bank liquidity created out of thin air in the past 6 years. Business Week cites Manhattan real estate agent Lisa Gustin who listed a four-bedroom Tribeca loft for $7.45 million in October, expecting a quick sale. Instead, she cut the price this month by $550,000. “I thought for sure a foreign buyer would come in"... They didn't.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The "Deflationary Vortex": Global Dollar Economy Suffers Biggest Plunge Since Lehman, Down $4 Trillion





One of the macroeconomic observations that has gotten absolutely no mention in recent months is the curious fact that while global economic growth has not imploded in recent quarters, it is because GDP has been represented, as is customary, in local currency terms. Of course, this comes as a time when local currencies (at least those which are not the USD) have been plunging against the greenback on the back of the expectations that the Fed will hike rates some time in the summer or later in 2015. Which also means that in "dollar economy" terms, i.e., converted in USD, things are not nearly as good.  In fact, as the chart below shows, the global dollar economy is not only shrinking fast, but it is doing so at the fastest pace since the Lehman collapse, having lost a whopping $4 trillion, or a whopping 5% drop,  in just the last 6 months! 

 
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