Purchasing Power

What Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Told The New York Fed

  • this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth
  • the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward
  • the risks are asymmetric to the downside
  • the impatience with economic stagnation, especially among middle and lower income earners, is leading to dangerous populism and nationalism.

"This Cannot End Well" Bill Gross Warns

"Central bankers have fostered a casino like atmosphere where savers/investors are presented with a Hobson's Choice, or perhaps a more damaging Sophie's Choice of participating (or not) in markets previously beyond prior imagination. Investors/savers are now scrappin' like mongrel dogs for tidbits of return at the zero bound. This cannot end well."

US Manufacturing "Slowed To A Crawl" In September As New Orders Hit 9-Month Lows

Despite the weakest new orders in 9 months, Markit US Manufacturing PMI managed a slightly better than expected 51.5 final print for September (still 3mo lows). Ironically, ISM data bounced perfectly to 51.5 also, after tumbling to 49.4 in August. New orders bounced in ISM data as did production, the opposite of PMI data, but as Market concluded, "Manufacturing growth slowed to a crawl in September, suggesting the economy is stuck in a soft-patch."

The FT Goes Full Fearmonger: Electing Trump "Would Unravel The World"

"Sometimes history jumps. Think of the first world war, the Bolshevik revolution, the Great Depression, the election of Adolf Hitler, the second world war,... We may be on the brink of an event as transformative as many of these: the election of Donald Trump as US president. This would mark the end of a US-led west as the central force in global affairs. The result would not be a new order. It would be perilous disorder."

What A Commodity Trading Legend Is Buying Ahead Of The Next Crisis

When a commodity trading guru like Dwight Anderson, founder of the iconic Ospraie Management has something to say on the market outlook, people tend to listen, especially when he’s consigning the last great commodity bull run to the history books and buying gold and farmland for the next crisis.

What Do We Know?

"These linear thinkers can’t understand why their playbook of lies, misinformation, pointless social justice issues and a myriad of other inane distractions aren’t working this time. They fail to acknowledge that history is cyclical and we’ve entered the phase when generational cohorts are aligned for dramatic sweeping change. The data is there for all to see, but those benefiting from the current perverted paradigm will not be swept aside without a bloody fight."

Italy's Earthquake: Will It Revive Their Economy?

As long as the Italian public will believe in “the blessings of destruction,” and in government-led recovery, which diverts capital from productive to nonproductive uses, earthquakes will continue to be, quoting Giovanni Birindelli “the health of democracries.” Meanwhile, politicians will have the intellectual power of using the broken-window scheme as an expedient to extend their tentacles over the private sector, in the form of more public debt, increased deficits, and higher taxes.

Is Trump Wrong On Trade?

The real culprit or cause of the loss of purchasing power is the American Central Bank. It is directly responsible for the growth in income inequality and the slow decline in living standard of the American middle class. Monetary policy is “econspeak” for legal counterfeiting! If Trump really wants to make America great again, he should seriously consider returning the U.S. to sound mone.

BOJ Needs To Go All The Way

The BOJ does have a track record of surprising markets. If it doesn’t want to see USD/JPY collapse, exacerbating the nation’s economic struggles, then it needs to ensure the shock is a dovish one this time. Which maybe what the banks are negatively expecting...Even as Goldman warns "don't expect much if anything, at all."

A Messaging Tip For The Donald: It's The Fed, Stupid!

The nation’s rogue central bank is essentially a reverse Robin Hood on steroids. If Donald Trump wants to hit the ball out of the park next Monday evening, therefore, he needs to quickly skip over his dog-eared income tax cut plan and put the wood good and hard to the Fed, Janet Yellen, and our unelected financial rulers.