To most people, a bull market is good. Share prices are connected to business productivity, right? In a free market, yes. However we don’t have a free market. We have monetary policy, how our central planners stimulate us into a wealth effect.
Today, another Texas-based hedge fund manager who just like Kyle Bass correctly predicted, and profited from, the subprime crisis, Corriente Advisors' Mark Hart, has not only reiterated Kyle Bass CNY devaluation call, but has gone as far as quantifying by how much the Chinese currency will have to fall. Cited by Bloomberg, Hart has said that "China should weaken its currency by more than 50 percent this year."
One of the Main Causes of Our Economic Problems
"The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better."
With Erdogan calling (loudly) for lower rates and 5 of 7 MPC seats opening up between April and November, some fear Turkey may eschew policy normalization leading directly to what Morgan Stanley calls "a vicious cycle" of a depreciating currency, rising inflation, and lower real policy rates.
An unseen bubble at the heart of the financial system is deflating with unknown consequences. When bubbles deflate, and here we are talking about one in the hundreds of trillions, bad debts are usually exposed. Even though much of the reduction in outstanding OTC derivatives is due to consolidation of positions following the Frank Dodd Act, much of it is not. When free markets reassert themselves, and they always do, the disruption promises to be substantial. We appear to be in the early stages of this event. If so, demand for physical gold can be expected to escalate rapidly as a financial crisis unfolds.
If you had not noticed, 2016 has begun with gold and the USD rising simultaneously. This is different and important. This is very positive for gold and very bad for the world...
For more than four decades Washington’s middle eastern policy has been dead wrong and increasingly counter-productive and destructive. Washington’s Mideast policy is predicated on the assumption that the answer to high oil prices and energy security is deployment of the Fifth Fleet to the Persian Gulf. And that an associated alliance with one of the most corrupt, despotic, avaricious and benighted tyrannies in the modern world is the lynch pin to regional stability and US national security. Nothing could be further from the truth. The House of Saud is a scourge on mankind that would have been eliminated decades ago, save for Imperial Washington’s deplorable coddling and massive transfer of arms and political support.
How did Venezuela stocks perform in the past year under the country's hyperinflation? The answer: using a meaningess exchange rate, they rose 4x and, as Handelsblatt incorrectly concluded, "were the best investment of the year"; on the other hand using an exchange rates that actually reflects the country's economic implosion, they lost just over 20% of their value in the past year.
It's that time of year again. When hindsight is 20/20 and coulda/woulda/shoulda gives way to reality. With the US equity market barely able to keep its head above green water, a look around the world shows investors could have done a lot better... (or not)
Be careful what you wish for; you just might get it.
Everyone who is convinced that the current status quo is permanent and unbreakable should consider what happened to the super-wealthy private landholders of the Western Roman Empire. When the empire's power to coerce broke down, the super-wealthy vanished into the dustbin of history. Few believed that possible in 475 AD, but history isn't a matter of belief. Believing it isn't possible doesn't stop history.
Goldman, Decembert 20, 2015: "We think the BoJ is closer to easing further to attempt to achieve a successful reflation than it is to giving up altogether, and so we continue to expect $/JPY higher. We recommend being long $/JPY as part of our 2016 top trade recommendation (along with short EUR/$) and forecast $/JPY at 130 in 12 months"... Three days later, the USDJPY is 100 pips lower.
The Fed will never succeed in its attempt to manage inflation and unemployment by varying interest rates. This is because it and its economists do not accept the relationship between, on one side, the money it creates and the bank credit its commercial banks issue out of thin air, and on the other the disruption unsound money causes in the economy. This has been going on since the Fed was created, which makes the question as to whether the Fed was right to raise interest rates recently irrelevant.
At the end of the day, the Fed led central bank money printing spree of the past two decades resulted in what is functionally a massive dollar short. Once the Fed stopped expanding its balance sheet when QE officially ended in October 2014, it was only a matter of time before all the “near-dollars” of the world would come under enormous downward pressure in the FX markets. Our Keynesian witch doctors believe that sinking currencies are a wonderful thing, of course. They claim making your country poorer is a good way to stimulate export growth and a virtuous cycle of spending and growth. But there is another thing. It is also a good way to generate capital flight and the ensuing chaos that creates.