Ray Dalio

Foundation & Empire - Is Donald Trump 'The Mule'?

"I don’t see Trump as an evil Mule character in this Shakespearian tragedy, as it progresses towards its ill-fated denouement...  It’s like jockeying for the best seat on the Titanic as it sinks into the frigid ocean depths of the Atlantic. The American Empire is in shambles and no one can reverse its course at this point."

Weekend Reading: Lack Of Perspective

"While it is often said it is only “time IN the market” that matters, investors must remember “time” is the one commodity we can not replace."

100 Years Ago, Russian Stocks Had A Very Bad Day

Just as stocks had doubled after a trading pause lasting the duration of World War I, and the sky seemed the limit for Russian investors.... something very unpleasant happened.

Frontrunning: March 2

  • Data-Dependent Yellen Running Out of Reasons to Hold Rates Still (BBG)
  • Dollar rises, global stocks hold highs on March Fed rate hike bets (Reuters)
  • Pelosi calls on Sessions to quit after Post discloses Russia contacts (Reuters)
  • Euro-Area Inflation Hits 2 Percent as ECB Debates Policy (BBG)
  • Snap IPO Values Company at Twice Facebook’s Multiple  (BBG)
  • SEC advisory committee to question Snap's transparency for investors (Reuters)

Goldman's Top FX Strategist Robin Brooks Is Quitting

"Since I joined in May 2010, Goldman taught be to boil an issue down to its essence, write it up simply and … make a pretty picture that tells the story. That’s basically what I have done these last few years and I have loved every minute of it."

Seth Klarman Warns Trump's "Erratic, Overconfidence" Could End Dollar Hegemony

The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty... If things go wrong, we could find ourselves at the beginning of a lengthy decline in dollar hegemony, a rapid rise in interest rates and inflation, and global angst...”

The Honeymoon Is Over: Goldman Slams Trump's Economic Plan, No Longer Expects A Border Tax

"One month into the year, the balance of risks is somewhat less positive for three reasons. First, the difficulty congressional Republicans have had in moving forward on Obamacare; Second, while bipartisan cooperation looked possible following the election, the political environment appears to be as polarized as ever; Third, some of the recent actions by the Trump Administration could be disruptive for financial markets and the real economy." - Goldman Sachs

Dan Loeb's Q4 Letter: Trump Will Make Investing Great Again

"This environment is undoubtedly better for active investing – just as active investing was considered to be on its deathbed. Higher rates will create opportunities, reversing the one?way trade in yields that dampened the past few years."