• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

Rupert Murdoch

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Frontrunning: January 12





  • Oil slips toward $30, traders bet on more falls (Reuters)
  • Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns (WSJ)
  • RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears (Telegraph)
  • World stocks drop but Europe shrugs off oil slide, China money market surge (Reuters)
  • Canadian Stocks Fall in Longest Slump Since 2002 as Oil Slides (BBG)
  • "Murderous" Yuan Rate Jolts Hong Kong as Top Currency Hub (BBG)
 
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The China Narrative That Really Matters





"I get nervous because the next move in China is going to be a political move, and political moves are never well anticipated by markets. The Beijing regime is going to take steps to defend itself, or at least insulate itself, from the growing Narrative that they are incompetent. Heads will roll. Literally, in all likelihood. But the incompetence genie is very hard to stuff back into the bottle, and depending on whose head is on the chopping block, regime stability can deteriorate very quickly. Now that's what will make me change my bullish stance on China fundamentals, and that's what will make the US market swoon of last August look like a gentle spring rain."

 
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Embracing The Dark Side: A Short History Of The Pathological Neocon Quest For Empire





Nearly all empires end due to over-extension. If brave people from Ottawa to Baghdad simply say “enough” within a brief space of time, hopefully this empire can dissolve relatively peacefully like the Soviet Empire did, leaving its host civilization intact, instead of dragging that civilization into oblivion along with it like the Roman Empire did. But beware, the imperial war party will not go quietly into the night, unless we in their domestic tax base insist that there is no other way. Russia’s entry into Syria has thrown all of the neocons’ schemes into disarray, as even Jordan, that favorite proxy force in Israel’s dreams of regional dominance, has begun coordinating with Russia, in spite of its billion dollars a year of annual aid from Washington. Et tu Jordan?!

 
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Guest Post: Donald Trump Says The U.S. Should Have Stolen Iraqis' Oil After Destroying Their Country





What’s refreshing about Trump is the directness with which he expresses his psychopathy. For example, candidates such as Hillary Clinton sugar-coat theirpsychopathy, or even find ways to get their interviewers to join eagerly in their expressions of it (camaraderie with power-holders), but they don’t say such blatant things as (to paraphrase Trump here), “After we raped them — which we shouldn’t have done — we should have stolen from them, and we should still be  stealing from them.”

 
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Frontrunning: August 13





  • China central bank tries to soothe global markets, says no reason for yuan to fall further (Reuters)
  • Huge blasts at Chinese port kill 44, with hundreds injured (Reuters)
  • China efforts to slow yuan fall hoist Europe shares, bond yields (Reuters)
  • Greek Economy Unexpectedly Surged Before Capital Controls (BBG)
  • Joe Biden Is Sounding Out Allies About a 2016 Bid (WSJ)
  • U.K. Tries to Kick-Start Shale Gas With Planning Speedup (BBG)
 
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How Much More Faith In Central Banks Is Left?





Carry traders just got their fingers burnt by central bankers, again. Just 7 months after The SNB crushed Swiss Franc free-riders, as Bloomberg reports, The PBOC 'surprised' an armada of easy-money-addicts drawn to the Yuan by its stability, potentially wiping out their highly leveraged returns or leading to forced lqiuidations. Twice in 8 months is enough to shake anyone's faith in central bank omnipotence, but as Ben Hunt noted, potentially more crucial to the 'faith-based' investing of today, the Common Knowledge about Chinese growth – what everyone thinks that everyone thinks about Chinese growth – is dramatically changed for the worse today, and it’s a change that will accelerate unless the Narrative shifts.

 
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Don't Be Fooled By The Political Game: The Illusion Of Freedom In America





Being a citizen in the American corporate state is much like playing against a stacked deck: you’re always going to lose. The game is rigged, and “we the people” keep getting dealt the same losing hand. Even so, most stay in the game, against all odds, trusting that their luck will change. The problem, of course, is that luck will not save us.

 
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Flushing Cash Into The Casino - The Media Stock Swoon Shows That It Works Until It Doesn't





During the most recent quarter debt issuance by US companies reached an all-time high, raising a question as to why companies still need to borrow so much after selling $7 trillion of U.S. debt securities since 2008. This weeks S&P Media index swoon leaves no doubt as to the answer. Companies have not been borrowing to grow; they have been borrowing in order to flush cash into the casino. Charles Ponzi once had a scheme that was not essentially different. Yes, and it worked until it didn’t.

 
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Donald Trump's Top 30 Insults





Amid the 16 (yes sixteen!) candidates for Republican Presidential nominee, there is one, and only one, that stands above the rest in terms of sheer un-filtered, un-political, and some would say un-presidential outspoken-ness. In an oustanding aggregation of abuse, The Hill has documented Donald Trump's Top 30 insults (so far in the 2016 campaign alone).

 
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"The Fallout Ratio" Is Flashing Red - The Chart That Realtors Don't Want You To See





The Home Sales Fallout Ratio gives us an idea of the trend of contracts (aka 'pending home sales') falling through and failing to close. It is telling us that, while sales are at a 9 year high, trouble is brewing in the current version of the bubbly housing market. This could be a harbinger of mass destruction should mortgage rates begin a persistent rise from here.

 
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Frontrunning: June 18





  • WSJ urges Fed to blow uberest of all bubbles: Memo to Fed: Let the Economy Overheat (WSJ)
  • Gunman at large after killing nine at black South Carolina church (Reuters)
  • Nine Dead in Charleston Shooting Labeled a 'Hate Crime' (BBG)
  • Hong Kong Votes Down Beijing-Backed Election Plan (WSJ)
  • Greece Has Already Cost Investors $897 Billion This Year (BBG)
  • Merkel Maintains Tough Stance on Greece as Deadline Looms (WSJ)
  • Small U.S. frackers face extinction amid drilling drought (Reuters)
  • Brian Williams to Stay at NBC, but Lester Holt Will Be Anchor (WSJ)
 
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Consumers Are Not Following Orders





Last week the government reported personal income and spending for April. After months of blaming non-existent consumer spending on cold weather, shockingly occurring during the Winter, the captured mainstream media pundits, Ivy League educated Wall Street economist lackeys, and Keynesian loving money printers at the Fed have run out of propaganda to explain why Americans are not spending money they don’t have. The corporate mainstream media is now visibly angry with the American people for not doing what the Ivy League propagated Keynesian academic models say they should be doing. An economy built upon the consumption of iGadgets, Cheetos, meat lovers stuffed crust pizza, and slave labor produced Chinese baubles, along with the production of enough arms to blow up the world ten times over, and the doling out of trillions to the non-productive class, is doomed to fail.

 
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Frontrunning: June 12





  • Razor-edge U.S. Congress vote to decide fate of Obama Pacific trade pact (Reuters)
  • EU Readies for Default as Tsipras Drives Greek Finances to Brink (BBG)
  • Greece Can’t Plan a Barbecue, Let Alone a Currency, Nielsen Says (BBG)
  • IMF quits Greece talks amid ‘air of unreality’ as deal unravels (FT)
  • Greece Counts Cost of One Man's Gamble (BBG)
  • Merkel urges Greece and creditors to keep pushing for deal (Reuters)
  • Fearful ECB starts countdown on Greek funding lifeline (Reuters)
  • Greek stocks suffer further pummelling (FT)
 
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