El-Erian Says "The Market Believes Central Banks Are Our Best Friends Forever", Just Don't Show It "Figure 4"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/21/2015 16:38 -0500
Liquidity in the junk (and all other markets) is evaporating, and according to Citi the spread between an illiquid and liquid junk bond portfolio just hit 100 bps, the most in the history of the series. Meanwhile according to Mohamed El-Erian "The market is comfortable that whenever we hit a hiccup, the Fed is going to come back in," he said. "It's very deeply embedded that central banks are our best friends forever."
As FT reports, "some of the European Central Bank’s top decision-makers met banks and asset managers days before major policy decisions, and on one occasion just hours before, copies of their diaries reveal."
US Ground Troops In Syria Is "Illegal, Big Mistake", Russia Warns Obama Of "Unpredictable Consequences"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2015 21:30 -0500
Confirming once again that the U.S. has full devolved into banana republic, moments ago CNN reported that the US Department of "Justice" is closing its two-year investigation into whether the IRS improperly targeted tea party and other conservative groups. There will be no charges against former IRS official Lois Lerner or anyone else at the agency, the Justice Department said in a letter.
- China's central bank cuts rates for sixth time since November (Reuters)
- Global stocks hit two-month high on dovish Draghi message (Reuters)
- $6.5 Billion in Energy Writedowns and We're Just Getting Started (BBG)
- Alphabet, formerly Google, sets share buyback, shares jump (Reuters)
- Hurricane Patricia, Stronger Than Katrina, Nears Mexico (BBG)
- TVA Cleared to Start First New U.S. Nuclear Power Plant in Nearly 20 Years (WSJ)
Perhaps it is because the world has grown habituated to its unique set of "liquidity" problems, but California's record, and ongoing, drought has not been receiving much media coverage in the rest of the country in recent weeks. Perhaps it should be, because according to a report by CBS Sacramento, the Mountain Meadows reservoir also known as Walker Lake, a popular fishing hole just west of Susanville, ran dry literally overnight, killing thousands of fish and leaving residents looking for answers.
"The market closed above last Monday's high, which was a gap downside. And it also closed above the prior Friday's close. And that led to exhaustion. We should see the market drift lower for the next month or so. And we could probably make a new low, the low of last week's low, before the market finally bottoms."
With China's equity bubble now squarely in the rearview and the stock market crash making headlines the world over, Beijing is out for blood in a desperate attempt to find a scapegoat for a market rout that has rattled the country to the core. In what is perhaps a worrying sign of things to come, overnight China arrested a journalist and a top investment banker for "spreading fake trading information" and "illegal trading", respectively.
Once upon a time, Ron Insana tried running a fund of funds. He failed. Then he tried working at SAC. That didn't work out either. Then, he decided to write scathing opeds in the Huffpo bashing "doomsayers." Four years later, the Fed is terrified to hike rates by 25 bps from zero while in the meantime all other central banks have joined the Fed in a global, liquidity-injecting tsunami, confirming the doomsayers were right all along. So what is ole Ron, who once upon a time used to work at CNBC up to these days? Why "managing a virtual portfolio" it would appear... which he "took to cash last Thursday."
Today, with just one day to go until Bharara deadline runs out to plead the SCOTUS to opine on redefining what "insider trading" means , we found out why Bharara had requested the extension: as Reuters reports, the U.S. Justice Department asked the Supreme Court on Thursday to reverse a federal appellate court's ruling that authorities said limited their ability to pursue insider trading cases.
For the first time in 4 years, Appaloosa Management's David Tepper is not the highest-earning hedge fund manager in the world. Plunging from No.1 to tied-for-11th (with a mere $400 million earned last year) Tepper appears to have suddenly found investing difficult now that The Fed has stopped printing money (up just 2.2%). What is more ironic, perhaps, is that the other alleged beneficiary of Fed largesse (and recent hirer or blogger Ben Bernanke) - Citadel tops the list with Ken Griffin making $1.3 billion last year.
"I’m The First To Say: I Can’t Do It" - The Energy Junk-Bond Implosion Just Claimed Its First VictimSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/09/2015 14:47 -0500
The universe of entities who have blown up in the past year trading oil and commodities is getting increasingly more crowded and includes among them such former luminaries as one-time oil trading god (if mostly in the eyes of Citigroup) Andy Hall. However, until now there not been any prominent casualties among the group of indirect investors in the energy space, those investing in the stocks or debt of energy names, and especially those most at risk from the oil price collapse: junk bond investors. That changed today when as WSJ reported earlier, Kamunting Street, which managed about $1 billion at its peak, announced it was returning capital to investors, as a result of plunging oil prices and wrong way junk bond bets tied to hard-hit energy companies which had gone sour over the past nine months.
There is a much larger structural risk for markets and investors than HFT and the whole Flash Boys brouhaha, it’s just totally under the radar and hasn’t surfaced yet. Investors may not know better yet, but they will soon, one way or another. Tomorrow a handful of governments will influence aggregate political behaviors by triggering small communications that Big Data tells them will be voluntarily magnified by individual citizens, snowballing into outsized, long-lasting, and untraceable “popular” actions. Tomorrow a handful of hedge funds will influence aggregate market behaviors by triggering small trades that Big Data tells them will be voluntarily magnified by individual traders, snowballing into outsized, long-lasting, and untraceable “market” actions. Tomorrow Big Data will be primarily an instrument of social control, with a powerful and ubiquitous impact on all citizens and all investors.
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In recent years Geoffrey Raymond's annotating opportunities have slowed to a trickle courtesy of every central bank going all-in on some $11 trillion in QE (and rising fast) to create the artificial impression that the financial system is stable (because in some parallel universe 6 years of endless bailouts somehow is equivalent to stability and is expected to "boost confidence"), although if recent market volatility is any indication, he may soon be making a repeat appearance, if only in front of energy trading desks at first. And while we await Raymond to once again make mainstream media headlines, he has a special holiday gift idea for all those Zero Hedgers who have not yet parlayed their trillions (if Joe LaVorgna is correct) in savings from plunging crude prices into even more consumerism. Presenting "Existential Rage in the Workplace" from Geoffrey Raymond.