Savings Rate

Tyler Durden's picture

Savings Rate Surges To Highest Since 2012 As Spending Disappoints





The Keynesians will not be pleased. Despite the holiday season, December spending disappointed with no change MoM (0.0% vs +0.1% exp). This is further sentiment-destructivbe as income data rose more than expected MoM (+0.3% vs +0.2% exp) even as income growth YoY slipped to its weakest in 9 months. This of course means the personal savings rate rose, pushing to 5.5% - the highest since 2012.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The BoJ "Gift" Is A One Day Reprieve - Use It Wisely





By surprising markets with a move to a negative deposit rate, the Bank of Japan gave investors temporary reprieve, providing a much needed opportunity to pare portfolio risk at better prices. Unfortunately, the improvement in financial asset prices will be short-lived; except, of course, for long-maturity Treasuries.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why The 10Y Yield Will Slide To 1.75%: Deutsche Bank Explains





"Before investors sell 10s, they need the Fed to pause...  The curve flattens into March 2s10s with risk off market dynamics and an increasing probability of relent, followed by bear steepening after a Fed pause. Rates could then stabilize or decline, depending on whether recession is avoided or at least postponed."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Personal Income, Spending Increase By 0.3% In November As Savings Rate Dips To 5.5%





The end result was that in November personal savings was $748 billion, a $9.4 billion decline from the $757 billion a month ago, which translates into a 5.5% savings rate, down from last month's 5.6%, however well above the average rate seen over the past 12 months as consumers continue to be unwilling to dip into their savings despite the so-called "gas" tax cut.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Credit Card Data Reveals First Holiday Spending Decline Since The Recession





It's official: the start to the holiday shopping has been a disaster, and it's not simply due to a shift to online spending.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Global Stocks Rise; US Traders Gives Thanks For Higher Equity Futures





While US floor markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday (equity, rates and energy futures are open until 1pm Eastern), Europe and Asia (as well as US equity futures) were busy rebounding overnight on strength in the commodity complex following yesterday's news that China's metals producers have asked for a wholesale government bailout or the "QEmmodity" as we have dubbed it, for the first time since 2009, which together with news that China would soon start arresting "malicious metal sellers" has provided a push for commodity prices across the board.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Consumers Hunker Down: Personal Spending Misses; Savings Rate Soars To Highest Since 2012





If this data is accurate, and keep in mind the BEA has a habit of revising spending higher after it revises income, to "boost" GDP as we revealed last year, this means that the US consumer is hunkering down at an unprecedented pace, and the 5.6% savings rate is now the highest since 2012, suggesting not only are US consumer unwilling to spending much money, but are actively worried about what is coming just around the corner.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Relevance Of Gold - Sprott's 3 Litmus Tests





The investment thesis for gold has never been limited to popular relationships, such as CPI-type inflation, financial meltdown or political instability. We prefer to focus on the irretrievable gap between financial assets (claims on future output) and productive output (GDP). In essence, the most compelling reason to own gold is that financial assets have lost their underpinnings to sustainable productive output.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Savings Rate Rises To Highest Since April As Spending, Income Growth Drops





The mid-year bounce is over. Both Personal Income (+0.1% vs +0.2% exp) and Personal Spending (+0.1% vs +0.2% exp) missed expectations and slowed dramatically. This is the weakest spending growth since January and weakest income growth since March driving the savings rate to its highest since April.

 
Vitaliy Katsenelson's picture

Shadow Over Asia





Having government control over the levers of the economy can have advantages. For example, by taking prompt action, the Chinese government was able to pull the economy out of the recession remarkably fast, basically by fire-housing the stimulus package that was equivalent to 12% GDP. That’s the advantage. The only problem is that these kinds of short-term advantages come with long-term, painful consequences.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Personal Income Rises At Slowest Pace In 5 Months As Savings Rate Drop





Personal income rose at 0.3% MoM in August, the weakest growth and biggest miss since March's tumble. At the same time spending rose 0.4% MoM, slightly more than expected. Of course this relative shift means the savings rate declined from 4.7% to 4.6%, which is to be cheered by economic models the emphasize spending over saving.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Meanwhile, Brazil's Currency Just Plunged To An All-Time Low...





The negative feedback look between Brazil's political and economic crises is serving to make each day worse than the last. Tuesday was no exception...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Enough Already! Raise The Rate To 3 Percent





Everything is so wonderful that a rate hike would equate to saying the Fed has won. Seven years of ZIRP and a few selling periods when the Fed stopped POMO’s and QE injections, we can easily say with extreme confidence that the Fed won. And by won we mean didn’t ruin the system entirely. Except they did.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The US Economy Is Not Awesome And It's Not Decoupled





When the bubble vision stock peddlers get desperate, they talk decoupling. So by the end of yesterday’s bloodbath you would have thought China was on another planet, and that “commodities” were some trinket-like collectibles gathered by people who don’t wear long pants, drink coca cola or jabber on their cell phones. On these fine shores, of course, its all awesome from sea to shinning sea. So don’t be troubled. Buy the dip.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Personal Spending Misses Expectations By Most Since January, Income Juiced By Government Handouts





While the headline spending and income data consists of marginal moves, personal spending missed expectations by the largest amount since the dismal weather-strewn days of January. Consumption rose 0.3% in July, less than the 0.4% expectation and flat from the 0.3% June print. Income rose 0.4% - in line with expectations - ticking up YoY to 4.3% 0 juiced by a $13 billion government transfer receipts print - the most since March. The savings rate ticked up once again as those darned consumers refuse to spend as the elite demand.

 
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