Savings Rate

SocGen: "Are We Just Prisoners Here, Of Our Own QE?"

"What strikes me, looking back to the immediate post-crisis analysis, is that while several people understood by then that the recessions which follow a financial crisis tend to linger (‘This Time is Different’ was published on September 1 2009), the idea that we could be trapped by zero/low rates(and then by QE) was not yet fashionable."

Millennials' Savings Rate Climbs For First Time In A Decade

Despite the aggregate student debt burden eclipsing the $1 trillion mark, and wages pressures across the US economy remaining relatively subdued, a new survey from Bankrate.com claims that Americans’ savings habits are improving for the first time in a decade, with the strongest gains recorded among the 18-26 demographic.

Moody's Cuts Aussie Bank Ratings Due To "Tail Risk" Concerns

"Whilst mortgage affordability for most borrowers remains good at current interest rates, the reduction in the savings rate, the rise in household leverage and the rising prevalence of interest-only and investment loans are all indicators of rising risks."

Personal Spending Growth Tumbles To 7-Month Lows After Dramatic Revisions

Having weakened to unchanged for the last two months, April saw personal spending rise 0.4% MoM (as expected) and personal income rise 0.4% MoM (as expected). However, year-over-year growth in spending (+4.3%, weakest since Sept 2016) and income (+3.6%, weakest since Jan 2017) both signaled a rolling over of the post-Trump exuberance (just in time for another rate-hike by the The Fed).

"How Does This Ever End?" An Interview With Lacy Hunt

"...our results will mirror Japan over time... They've tried to solve an indebtedness problem by taking on more debt... the secular low in long treasury bonds is not at hand.. [rates] are not going to be able to stay up. The economy is too fundamentally weak..."

What Keeps Bank of America Up At Night

"The last two weeks have further underpinned our belief that the market has had misplaced optimism in the new administration's reform agenda, while we find more and more evidence that suggests the macro environment echoes that of 2014 and 2015."

Crispin Odey: "Why Do I Remain Stubbornly Bearish?"

"When it comes to markets, we have to watch for ‘the Minsky moment’. Minsky argued that periods of low volatility, presaged crises because they encouraged excessive risk taking. Well, we are into the risk taking. But this fund truly does not demand that the end of the world comes tomorrow."

Financialization & The Erosion Of Growth

"As fees go up by half-a-percent, we reach into the client’s balance sheet, snatch the half-a-percent, and turn it into income; it’s almost magic - capital into income... but we lower the savings rate of our clients (savings and investment rate) by half-a-percent as our fees go up, so we get short term GDP kick from our income, at the expense of lower long-term growth on the part of the system."

Financial Insecurity

"...markets do not compound average returns over time. Most importantly, just as with “pension funds,” the issue of using above average rates of return into the future suggests one can “save less” today because the “growth” will make up for the difference. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t work that way."

Global Stocks, US Futures Rise On First Day Of Q2 As Trump-Xi Meeting Looms

After the best quarter for US stocks since 2015, global equities have started off Q2 on the right foot, despite caution about the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping later this week, and Fed Minutes which are expected to be more hawkish than the FOMC statement.