Savings Rate

A German Bank Finally Caves: Will Charge Retail Investors A Negative 0.4% Deposit Rate

Raiffeisen Gmund am Tegernsee, a German cooperative savings bank in the Bavarian village of Gmund am Tegernsee, with a population 5,767, finally gave in to the ECB's monetary repression, and announced it’ll start charging retail customers to hold their cash. Starting September, for savings in excess of €100,000 euros, the community’s Raiffeisen bank will charge a 0.4% rate. That represents the first direct pass through of the current level of the ECB’s negative deposit rate on to retail depositors.

Rising Recession Risks & The Tears In America's Economic Fabric

Stock market “bulls” should pray that interest rates don’t rise. Don’t blame those poor consumers for not spending – they are spending everything they have and then some. Just one word describes the outcome of that event given the current excessively leveraged consumption based economy of today – disaster.

IMF Studies Piketty’s Work On Income Inequality, Finds There Is "No Empirical Evidence” To Support Claims

When Thomas Piketty’s "Capital in the 21st Century" came out in 2013, it quickly became a favorite of the political left and neo-Keynesian economists as his findings fit the narrative of increasing income inequality. Paul Krugman said “ Mr. Piketty’s contribution is serious, discourse-changing scholarship in a way most best sellers aren’t.  There may be just one problem with Piketty’s earth-shattering revelation: it appears to be wrong.

Saving The System: Exposing The 4 Fallacies Of Modern Monetary Policy

Monetary policy, we are told, is all about staving off recession and stimulating economic growth. However, not only is monetary debasement in any form counterproductive and destroys the personal wealth of the masses, but the economists who devised today’s monetarism have completely lost their way. The real reason for today’s global monetary policies is an ultimately futile attempt to prevent a systemic and economic crisis.

Hidden In Today's Revised Personal Income Data, A Troubling Trend For The US Consumer

As of this moment, absent a substantial pick up in wages and disposable income in general, US spending - that key driver of US GDP - is about to slow down sharply as the savings rate enters the red zone. As shown in the chart above, every time the savings rate hits about 5%, consumers slow down. The problem is that it comes just as spending in Q1 supposedly soared.

US Personal Income Growth Slumps To Lowest Since 2013, Spending Rises

Savings are slumping (which means credit is surging) as the American consumer keeps on spending (+3.7% YoY near highest since May 2015) despite income growth at its slowest since Dec 2013 (+2.7% YoY). The diverging trend of the last 6 months (higher spending, lower income) is unlikely to last but with the savings rate at 5.3% (down from 6.2%)at March 2014 lows, we suspect the run way is running out.

NY Fed Finds 15% Of Americans Have Negative Net Worth; Student Loans Contibute To Record US Wealth Inequality

"There has been much discussion about the growth in wealth inequality over the past three decades. Given the importance of student debt in explaining negative household wealth, it is likely that the steady growth in student debt and borrowing, combined with the very slow rate of student loan repayment we have documented elsewhere, has materially contributed and will continue to contribute to negative household wealth and wealth inequality"

The "New Housing Crisis" – Not Enough Rental Homes?

The real crisis is not a lack of homes for people to buy, just a lack of enough homes for people to rent. Which says more about the “real economy” than just about anything else. While there are many hopes pinned on the housing recovery as a “driver” of economic growth in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 – the lack of recovery in the home ownership data suggests otherwise.

Kyle Bass Shares The "Stunning" Thing A Central Banker Once Told Him

"I had a fascinating out of body experience meeting with one of the world's top central bankers in a private meeting about three years ago. it was one of those moments where I...it was one of those epiphanies almost, where it's something you and I knew, but hearing him say it, call it one of the four top central bankers in the world, it was a jarring experience for me..." - Kyle Bass

Revenge Of The Rubes - Why The Days Of The Financial Elite's Rule Are Numbered

The truth is, it is the “European Project” which represents the darker impulses -  it is a tyranny based on a muddled brew of globalism, statism, financialization and the cult of central banking. It’s days are numbered because even the rubes can see that it doesn’t work, and that its massive internal contradictions are heading for a spectacular implosion. The British voters have decided to get out of harms’ way. Hopefully, there will soon be many other cases of the rubes in revolt.

August 15th - The Date Which Will Live In Monetary Infamy

August 15, 2016 will mark the 45th anniversary of President Nixon’s decision to close the gold window. U.S. citizens and the government are now beholden to the consequences of years of accumulated debt and weak productivity growth that have occurred since that day. Now, seven years after the end of the financial crisis and recession, these consequences are in plain sight. The Fed finds themselves crippled under an imprudent zero interest rate policy and unable to raise interest rates due to fear of stoking another crisis.

April Spending Exuberance Plunges Back To Earth In May As Income Growth Slows

After an exuberant April, spiking hope that everything was awesome with a surge in spending, May has dragged US consumers back down to earth. The 1.1% (revised) jump in spending in April (highest since Aug 09) is over as May's 0.4% gain is back in the land of 'normal' once again. Income rose just 0.2% MoM (less than expected) slowing dramatically from last month to near the weakest YoY growth since March 2014. The savings rate fell once again on the back of this (down 0.1%) to 5.3%.

Elizabeth Warren’s War On The Poor

We should not quarrel with Senator Warren’s stated goal of protecting the least powerful in society, but we should take issue with many of Senator Warren’s proposed strategies to achieve her stated goal - because they don’t work.